20140429-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_568kb

Regional Oil & Gas Summary (29 Apr 2014)

Core Content

This summary provides an overview of the oil and gas market dynamics and key news from the Asia-Pacific region as of 28 April 2014. It includes price movements, corporate updates, and valuation data for various companies in the sector.

Price Movements

• Brent Crude Oil: Down by 1.3% to $108.12 per barrel.
• Henry Hub (Natural Gas): Up by 2.3% to $4.76 per MMBtu.
• LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Down by 1.4% to $14.50 per MMBtu.

Key News Highlights

China

• O&G Partnerships: China seeks long-term oil and gas partnerships with Brazil and Venezuela.
• Sinopec Reforms: Sinopec has hired financial consultants (CICC, Deutsche Bank, CITIC Securities, and BoA) for its marketing segment reform.
• Naphtha Price Increase: Sinopec raised its April naphtha ex-factory price by CNY70/tonne to CNY6,720/tonne.
• East China Benzene Price: Sinopec increased its east China ex-factory benzene price by 1.16% to CNY8,700/tonne.

India

• ONGC Naphtha Offer: India's ONGC is offering 35,000 tonnes of naphtha for loading from Hazira in late May.

South Korea

• Petchem Exports: March petrochemical exports declined by 5% YoY due to weaker paraxylene and benzene prices. Paraxylene exports fell by 21.8% to 287,647 tonnes, and benzene exports dropped by 35.5% to 148,697 tonnes.

Thailand

• PTTEP Earnings: PTTEP reported 1Q14 profits of USD380m, down from USD680m a year ago. A significant contributor to the decline was a USD106m forex loss.
• BG Group CEO Resignation: BG Group's CEO Chris Finlayson has resigned, and Andrew Gould will replace him as acting CEO.
• Ophir Energy Merger Cancellation: Ophir Energy called off merger talks with Premier Oil after the deal was rejected.

Company Valuation Comparison

Asia Oil & Gas

| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (28-Apr) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDm) | 90D T/O (USDm) | P/E (X) | EV/EBITDA (X) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---------|--------|----------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|--------|----------------|---------|--------|---------|----------|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 8.95 | NR | 218.1 | 100.5 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 4.5 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | NR | 6.90 | NR | 96.7 | 117.2 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 4.4 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 12.68 | NR | 73.0 | 113.2 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 17.3 | 1.3 | 4.5 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 321.35 | NR | 45.3 | 21.8 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 16.8 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 945.00 | NR | 50.4 | 54.2 | 13.3 | 11.0 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 335.00 | 443.00 | 10.5 | 14.5 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 25.1 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 456.45 | NR | 5.4 | 11.3 | 17.5 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 318.15 | NR | 1.8 | 7.4 | 21.5 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 12.02 | 15.90 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 26.7 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | buy | 6.10 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 13.9 | 8.4 | 12.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | buy | 69.75 | 87.00 | 9.8 | 23.4 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 14.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | sell | 52.50 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 5.9 |

Asian Refiners Average

• P/E (X): 22.3 (2013) / 16.6 (2014E)
• EV/EBITDA (X): 13.2 (2013) / 10.9 (2014E)
• RoE (%): 8.7 (2013) / 1.5 (2014E)
• Yield (%): 2.9 (2013) / 1.5 (2014E)

Global Oil Majors Average

• P/E (X): 13.7 (2013) / 13.4 (2014E)
• EV/EBITDA (X): 8.0 (2013) / 6.1 (2014E)
• RoE (%): 18.2 (2013) / 1.8 (2014E)
• Yield (%): 2.4 (2013) / 1.8 (2014E)

Analyst Contacts

• HK/CHINA: Howard Wong, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
• MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung, (603) 2297 8688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
• INDIA: Jigar Shah, (91) 22 6623 2601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
• SINGAPORE: Yeast Chee Keong, (65) 6432 1460, yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
• THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
• INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
• PHILIPPINES: Laura Dy-Liacco, (63) 28498840, laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com; Bianca Solema, (63) 28498835, bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
• VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen, (84) 844555888 × 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn; Truong Quang Binh, (84) 4 44 555 888 × 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn

Notes

• All forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under MayBank Kim Eng's coverage are from Bloomberg consensus.
• Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.