20171212-法国巴黎银行-Morning_Meeting_Notes_9页_649kb

报告摘要

EM STRATEGY | TURKEY DESKNOTE Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of Turkey's economic and financial landscape as of December 12, 2017, focusing on key macroeconomic indicators, monetary policy expectations, and market activity. It is produced by Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. and outlines the strategic views of the bank's FX & IR team.

Key Information

Treasury Bond Auctions

The Treasury will auction 2-year and 5-year fixed coupon bonds on December 12, 2017.
Total issuance is limited to TRY 2.1bn, which is expected to have minimal impact on market pressure.
Monthly bond issuance is projected to increase to TRY 9.2bn in January and further to TRY 17.7bn in February.

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Policy

Inflation expectations have continued to rise, with the 12-month and 24-month forecasts increasing by 65bp and 22bp respectively.
Despite this, the expectations remain below the actual November inflation rate of 13.0% y/y.
The CBRT is expected to tighten monetary policy in the upcoming MPC meeting on December 14.
Projected rate hikes include:
- Late liquidity window rate by 75bp to 13.0%
- ON lending rate by 50bp to 9.75%
- Average repo funding rate by 50bp to 12.75%

GDP Growth

Turkey's Q3 GDP growth reached 11.1% y/y, surpassing the Bloomberg market consensus of 8.5% y/y.
The growth was close to the team's forecast of 11.0% y/y.
The high growth is attributed to the recovery from the previous year's GDP contraction of 0.8% y/y due to the coup attempt and an increase in the number of working days.
Domestic demand and investment expenditure were the main contributors to the growth.
The support from net foreign trade dropped to 0.3pp from an average of 2.1pp in the previous two quarters.
The team expects GDP growth to slow to 6.5% y/y for 2017 and further to 4.0% y/y in 2018.
Leading indicators suggest a slowdown in economic activity in Q1 2018, with the manufacturing sector PMI and confidence indicators in other sectors declining.

Current Account Deficit

The October current account deficit was USD 3.8bn, below the market consensus of USD 4.1bn and the team's forecast of USD 4.4bn.
The improvement is mainly due to higher-than-expected tourism revenues, which increased by 30% y/y, despite only a 22% increase in tourist numbers.
The annualized current account deficit to GDP ratio increased to 5.0% in October, from 3.8% in the previous year.
The team forecasts this ratio to rise slightly to 5.2% in November.
Excluding gold imports, the current account deficit eased to 4.0% in October, from 4.1% in the previous year.

Market Overview

Foreign Exchange and Swap Market

Key FX rates and swap rates are summarized in Table 1.
USDTRY and EURTRY rates show small daily and weekly changes.
ATM volatility curves are provided for different maturities.

Government Bonds and CPI Linkers

Government bonds yields and prices are listed for various maturities, with the average repo funding rate at 12.75%.
CPI linkers show varying yields and prices, reflecting inflation expectations.

Charts

Chart 1: CPI and CPI expectations (% y/y)
Chart 2: Composition of GDP growth
Chart 3: Daily REER
Chart 4: XCCY Rate Curve
Chart 5: Government Bonds Yield Curve
Chart 6: USDTRY ATM Vol Curve

Legal and Compliance Notes

This document is non-independent research and is intended for marketing purposes.
It is not investment research and does not constitute an offer to sell or issue any financial instrument.
BNP Paribas may have conflicts of interest due to its involvement in investment banking and trading activities.
The document is for professional clients and relevant persons only.
It contains simulated performance data and is not a prospectus or public offering.
The information is subject to change and is not guaranteed in accuracy or completeness.
No liability is accepted for any losses arising from reliance on the document.

Contacts

Wike Groenenberg: Head of Emerging Markets Research, CEEMEA & APAC, London
Marcelo Carvalho: Head of Emerging Markets Research, Latam, Sao Paulo
Piotr Chwiejczak: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London
Sai Ulluri: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London
Erkin Işik, CFA: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, Istanbul
Mirza Baig: Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy, Singapore
Altaz Dagha: AU/NZ IR Strategist, Singapore
Dawn Kwa: Asia Graduate, Singapore
Kun Shan: China Strategist, Shanghai
Tianhe Ji: China Strategist, Shanghai
Gabriel Gersztein: Head FX & IR Latam Strategy, Sao Paulo
Samuel Castro: FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo
Gustavo Mendonca: FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo

Important Disclosures

BNP Paribas and its affiliates may have financial interests in the securities mentioned.
The document may contain performance data based on back-testing, which is for illustrative purposes only.
No assurance is given that the indicated returns or results will be achieved.
The document is confidential and may not be distributed without prior consent.
BNP Paribas may act as a market maker or advisor in the instruments discussed.
The document is not intended for retail investors and does not provide investment, financial, or legal advice.

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