20180320-法国巴黎银行-Morning_Meeting_Notes_9页_649kb

报告摘要

Summary of EM STRATEGY | TURKEY DAILY (20 March 2018)

Core Content

This document is a morning meeting note from Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. (TEB), focusing on the current state of the Turkish economy and financial markets, particularly in the context of Emerging Markets (EM) strategy. It includes updates on bond auctions, consumer confidence indicators, exchange rate performance, and market conditions, as well as legal and regulatory disclosures.

Key Information and Main Points

Bond Market Activity

The Turkish Treasury will issue 2-year and 10-year fixed coupon bonds today.
The 10-year bond yield has approached its previous high from November, currently at 12.91%.
The 5-year bond yield increased slightly from 13.30% to 13.48% following the recent auction.
The 5-year bond auction had a bid-cover ratio of 2.7, higher than the long-term average of 2.2, indicating some investor interest.

Consumer Confidence Index

The March consumer confidence index will be announced today.
It is expected to decline from the previous month's level of 72.3 due to tightening financial conditions.
The 13-week trend growth rate of consumer loans dropped to 8% in the week ending 9 March, the lowest since October 2016, suggesting a slowdown in consumer activity.

TRY Performance Against EM Peers

The Turkish Lira (TRY) has underperformed a basket of 16 EM peers by 4% this month.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) index has declined below its previous low from November, breaking an important support level.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is unlikely to take action before the reversal of carry trade inflows that started in November.

Market Indicators

USDTRY: Spot rate at 3.9441, with daily and weekly changes of 0.6% and 1.8%, respectively.
EURTRY: Spot rate at 4.8673, with daily and weekly changes of 1.0% and 1.4%, respectively.
BASKET: The average of USDTRY and EURTRY is at 4.4055, with daily and weekly changes of 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively.
XCCY Rate Curve: Shows the implied forward rates for USDTRY and EURTRY.
Government Bonds Yield Curve: Includes yields for 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y bonds, with the 10Y bond yield at 12.92%.
Daily REER: Has declined to 81.8, below the previous low of 82.4.
CBRT Average Repo Funding Rate: Indicates the central bank's monetary policy stance.

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

This document is a marketing communication and not independent research.
It is not intended for retail investors and is only for Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties under MiFID II.
BNPP may have conflicts of interest due to its involvement in investment banking and trading activities.
The document may include simulated performance data and is not a prospectus or public offering.
It does not provide investment, tax, or legal advice.
Certain securities discussed may not be registered under U.S. securities laws and are only available to Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) or non-U.S. persons under Regulation S.
The document is confidential and not to be distributed without prior written consent.

Additional Information

Contact Details: Includes a list of EM strategy contacts across different regions, including London, Sao Paulo, and Istanbul.
Disclaimer: Emphasizes that the information is for informational purposes only and may change without notice. BNPP disclaims any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the content.

Conclusion

The Turkish market is facing pressure with the TRY underperforming EM peers and the REER index breaking below key support levels. Despite the 10Y bond yield approaching its previous peak, the CBRT is unlikely to intervene immediately due to the potential reversal of carry trade inflows. Consumer confidence is expected to decline, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a possible slowdown in economic activity. The document serves as a strategic overview for professional investors and includes important legal disclaimers regarding its use and the nature of the information provided.

展开完整摘要