20240728-国金证券-农林牧渔行业周报_畜禽产品价格上涨_旺季价格可期_13页_2mb

Investment Analysis Summary

Market Performance Overview
During the week of July 20-26, 2024, the agriculture sector experienced significant declines. The Zhongxing Index for Agri-Markets fell by 44.4%, while the Shanghai Composite dropped by 25.1%, and the Shenzhen Component by 25.1%. In contrast, the SME Board saw gains, rising by 16.7%. Overall, the agriculture sector underperformed the broader market indices during this period.

Pork Market Analysis

• National average live pig price increased 115% week-over-week to 19,330 yuan/ton.
• Sow prices saw a slight increase, contributing to narrowed profit margins.
• Breeding sows showed improved profitability, signaling potential upside for leaner pigs in upcoming periods.
• Broiler prices surged amid increased demand and Brazil's export restrictions due to avian flu.
• Industry capacity remains suppressed with limited expansion capabilities due to financial constraints.

Grain and Planting Chain

• Spring wheat harvest achieved record yields due to favorable weather, with single-yield increases of 2.5%.
• Brazil imposed chicken and egg export restrictions, providing support for global meat prices.
• Domestic and international grain markets saw mixed trends as climate concerns weighed on some commodities.

Stock Recommendations

• Pork: Focus on companies with strong cost controls:牧原股份, 温氏股份；Monitor 华统股份, 新五丰.
• Poultry: Prioritize firms benefiting from Brazil's export ban:圣农发展, 益生股份, 民和股份.
• Plantings: Watch for seed companies leading in genetics and technology:隆平高科, 大北农, 登海种业.

Key Risks

• Spread-out pig production capacity limits immediate market response.
• Transgenic seeds face policy hurdles in adoption.
• Outbreaks or price volatility continue to pose systemic risks.

农业行业投资分析总结

市场表现概要
上周（7月20日至26日），农林牧渔申万指数下跌44.4%，沪深300跌幅达36.7%，上证综指跌去25.1%。深证综指、科创50反倒是逆势上涨，但农业板块仍未能抵抗大盘调整，收跌44.4%。

生猪养殖市场分析

• 全国商品猪价大涨115%至19330元/吨，养殖利润指标—如外购仔猪养殖利润和自繁自养利润均有改善。
• 母猪存栏量已降至2021年以来偏低水平，市场普遍看好“猪周期”高点后盈利兑现。
• 建议优选牧原股份、温氏股份以及具备扩张能力的企业；唐人神、新五丰、京基智农等为跟踪关注对象。

禽类养殖与种植产业链

• 蛋鸡产品因消费旺季提振价格大幅上扬，白羽鸡平均售价达766元/公斤。
• 进口受到巴西禽流感疫情扰动，本轮供给端扰动有望推高终端产品价格。
• 夏粮亮眼成绩带动种业板块关注度，看好隆平高科、大北农等转基因优势企业。

风险与展望

• 市场普遍认为，本轮猪周期产能出清时间或将拉长，养殖单位补栏意愿不强。
• 尽管周期向上趋势确立，估值切换短期难有明显起色。
• 涨幅股更多集中于林业、农加工板块，需权衡估值性价比与行业复苏持续性。

重点推荐与关注

• 猪周期拐点确认阶段，建议优先考虑成本端扎实且具备弹性企业。
• 保留渔业、动物蛋白上游收益空间，静待巴西禽流感扰动传导至终端。
• 种业板块短期调整已具备布局价值，可关注专项技术领先及政策支持型企业。