2025-05-29-Bernstein-小米集团（1810）_小米_全面发力——将目标价上调至60.00港元_重申跑赢大盘_18页_588kb

Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) Analysis Summary

Key Highlights

• Price Target Update: Reiterated Outperform rating, raised price target from HKD 55 to HKD 60 (16% upside).
• Strong Q1 Performance: Revenue surged 47.4% YoY to RMB 111.3 billion; net margin improved to 9.8% (EPS 1.73 for 2025, up 28%).
• IoT Segment Growth: Revenue +59% YoY, gross margin hit 25.2% due to large home appliance growth (114% YoY).
• EV Outlook: Maintained EV shipments forecast (2025: 417k units), awaiting YU7 launch details.
• Smartphone Share: China market share 18.8% (record high), global share 14.1% (up from 2024).

Business Unit Breakdown

1. Smartphone:

   • China shipments forecast 178 million units (21.2% YoY growth), with ASP improvement.
   • Challenges in India; opportunities in emerging markets.

2. IoT & Lifestyle:

   • Revenue +58.7% YoY to RMB 32.3 billion, driven by home appliances (113.8% YoY growth).
   • Gross margin expanded to 25.2%.

3. Internet Services:

   • Revenue growth 14% YoY to RMB 38.8 billion; advertising ARPU improved 16% YoY.

Catalysts

• June 3 Investor Day: Expect updates on strategy and financial guidance.
• July 2025 YU7 EV Launch.

Financial Projections

• Revenue: 2025E: RMB 503.6B (+37.6% YoY), 2026E: RMB 617.9B (+22.7% YoY).
• EPS: 2025E: RMB 1.73, 2026E: RMB 2.08.
• Valuation: SOTP based on 27x 2026E P/E.

Risks

• Regulatory challenges in India; competitive pressures in smartphone and EV markets.
• Potential delays in EV scaling or hardware sales.

Analyst: Eunice Lee, CFA (Bernstein)