2025-06-10-Jefferies-博思格钢铁（BSL）_钢铁行业无TACOs_11页_828kb

BlueScope Steel Equity Research Summary

Company Overview

BlueScope Steel Limited produces and sells metal-coated and painted steel building products globally, focusing on sectors such as building and construction, manufacturing, automotive and transport, agriculture, and mining. The company operates through five segments: NorthStar BlueScope Steel, Australian Steel Products, Building Products Asia & North America, Buildings North America, and New Zealand & Pacific Steel.

Key Analysis & Forecasts

• Earnings Revisions: Reduced 2025/26 EPS forecasts due to weaker steel spreads and lower FX impact, but NorthStar benefits from higher tariffs supporting US prices. 2H25 EBIT down 11% to $484m, despite being above BSL's EBIT guidance ($360-430m) and consensus.
• US Steel Market: Facing earnings pressure, with spreads falling to ~US$460/t from highs in May. Despite this, domestic pricing is supported by trade uncertainty and limited imports.
• Mid-Cycle Earnings: Forecast mid-cycle EBIT of $1.7bn by 2030, though current valuation appears discounted.
• Valuation: Target price AUD $29.00, up 22% from previous, but down from earlier estimates. Valuation includes $0.10/ps value for West Dapto and $1.33/ps for remaining property book.

Downside Risks

• Susceptible to global steel market softening, domestic demand fluctuations, and US non-residential construction activity.
• Earnings sensitive to steel and raw material price movements and currency fluctuations.
• Global overcapacity managed by China, but risks from heightened trade tensions or global demand slump.

Valuation Metrics (Jun 10, 2025)

• Base Case Target: AUD $29.00 (+22%)

• Upside Case: AUD $34.00 (+43%)

• Downside Case: AUD $16.00 (-33%)

• PE Ratio: 10.5x (based on FY26 estimates)

• EV/Sales: 0.6x

• EV/EBITDA: 5.1x (FY26)

Catalysts

• Recovery in Asian HRC spreads.
• Strengthening US HRC spreads.
• Further US steel industry protectionism.
• Commodity input price moves affecting ASP.

Investment Thesis

• Upside driven by NorthStar benefits from tariffs and cost-out initiatives.
• Downside linked to Asian spread weakness and broad steel sector challenges.

Analyst Certification

• Jefferies analysts (Ramoun Lazar, Kai Erman, Henry Copley) certify views reflect personal opinions, no compensation tied to recommendations.

• Ratings: Buy (Target Price $29.00 with 22% upside)

• Consensus EPS 2026: AUD $205 vs. JEF estimate of $228

Summary Points

• Earnings likely to remain pressured due to fallen US steel spreads, though 2025-2027 estimates show modest recovery in some areas.
• Valuation is based on 30% PE discount to ASX200, with upside in base case scenario depends on stable domestic demand and global trade protectionism.
• Focus on disciplined capital allocation and shareholder returns with potential $200-300m share buyback starting in FY27.