20251212-招银国际-极兔速递-W-01519.HK-Takeaways_from_Bangkok_investor_call_7页_1mb

报告摘要

Key Points:

J&T Express achieved profitability in Thailand after years of pricing competition, ranking #1 in parcel volume.
Strong growth potential in Thailand and SEA, driven by e-commerce penetration and parcel volume.
J&T expects SEA parcel volume to outpace industry average in 2026E.
Target Price: HK$13.40.
Current Price: HK$10.08, trades at premium valuation compared to peers.
Maintain BUY recommendation based on strong competitive edge and market share gain potential in SEA and new markets (Brazil, MEA).

Market Performance:

Strong SEA Parcel Growth (CAGR ~40% over last 3 years, expected 78.7% YoY growth in Q325).
Expansion to non-e-commerce customers (20k out of 200k total).
Extended service portfolio (fruit parcel, time-definite, LTL).

Competitive Landscape:

Ranks #1 in Thailand by parcel volume (equals combined volume #2 to #4 players).
Major competitors: Lazada Logistics, Shopee.
Advantage: Higher network density leads to better delivery efficiency and cost savings.
J&T believes its competitive edge is unmatched in SEA (32.8% share in H124).

Advantages & Risks:

Strengths: Unmatched competitive edge in SEA, strong market share gain potential, good growth prospects in new markets, robust cost management (10% p.a. reduction since 2022); improved EBITDA (-331M HKD in 2024A vs -3.3B HKD in 2022A).
Risks: Higher-than-expected Average Selling Price (ASP) pressure; Intense competition in new markets.

Valuation:

Recommendation: BUY.
Target Price: HK$13.40.
Methodology: SOTP (Sum of the Parts):
- SEA: 14x EV/EBITDA multiple (reflecting strong pricing power), ~81% of valuation.
- China: 6.5x EV/EBITDA multiple (major peer aligned), ~14%.
- New Markets: 20x EV/EBITDA multiple (reflecting strong growth potential), ~5%.
New FWD Share Price: US$ 1.71.