20250709-招银国际-极兔速递-W-01519.HK-Impressive_parcel_volume_growth_in_SEA_7页_919kb

J&T Express (1519 HK) - Research Update

Key Highlights:

• Strong SEA Performance: J&T delivered impressive 2Q25 results, driven by robust e-commerce growth (especially Temu, Shein, TikTok) in Southeast Asia (SEA), achieving a 66% YoY parcel volume increase to 1.69 billion units. Growth rates accelerated from 50% in Q125.
• China Segment Moderation: China volume grew 15% YoY to 5.6 billion units, slower than Q124's pace.
• New Markets Expansion: New markets (led by Brazil) saw a 24% YoY increase to 89 million units.
• Revised Forecast & Valuation: Favourable outlook led to upward revisions to 2025E/26E earnings (+18%/-2%). Target Price revised up to HK$10.00 (up from HK$6.90).
• Market Leadership: Emphasizes J&T's significant market share gains in SEA, positioning it as a unique play in HK logistics.
• Recommendation: Maintain BUY.

Price & Performance:

• Current Price: HK$8.01
• 3m Target Price: HK$10.00
• P/E (2025E): 30.3x, P/B (latest): 2.9x

Financial Summary (Selected Data):

• Revenue 2023A-FY27E: Significant growth expected, increasing from under HK$9 bn in 2023 to over HK$15 bn by 2027 (CAGR ~17%).
• Adjusted Net Profit 2025E: HK$330m (up from 2024A's HK$200m).
• Funding: Company holds substantial cash (c. HK$1.5 bn) and exhibits modest leverage.

Valuation Methodology:

• Uses SOTP (Sum of the Parts Target Price) model.
• SEA: 81% of target valuation. Revises the multiple to 14x EV/EBITDA (up from 10x), reflecting its growth and share gains.
• China: 19% of target valuation. Maintains 6x multiple alignment with peers.
• New Markets: Maintains 20x multiple.
• Equity Value Target: ~HK$11.3 bn, leading to a TARGET PRICE of HK$10.00 per share.
• Peer Comparison: J&T trades at significantly higher multiples than its China domestic express peers.

Key Risks:

• Intensifying price competition (especially in China).
• Fluctuation in foreign exchange rates.

Disclaimer & Analyst Certification:
The analysis is based on publicly available information and assumes no conflict of interest with company management.