20250902-招银国际-三生制药-01530.HK-The_journey_of_globalization_has_just_begun_5页_1mb

3SBio (1530 HK) Equity Research Summary

Overview

• Thefirm's globalization journey is beginning.
• 1H25 revenue was HK$4.4bn (-0.8% YoY) due to TPIAO slowdown partially offset by alopecia growth (+24% YoY). Profit rose 24.6% YoY due to reduced finance costs.
• Maintain BUY recommendation with target price HK$37.58 (unchanged from previous).

Financial Highlights

• Revenue Growth: Driven by alopecia franchise (+24% YoY HK$690mn) but TPIAO under pressure (-4.2% YoY).
• Profitability: Improved significantly in 1H25 due to high-margin growth in alopecia and reduced interest costs.
• Valuation: Based on an 11-year DCF model showing potential upside to HK$37.58.

Key Growth Catalysts

1. Pipeline Launches (2025-2026):

   • 608 (IL-17A) & 613 (IL-1β) for China market.
   • 707 (PD-1/VEGF) potential global blockbuster.

2. Partnership with Pfizer (707):

   • Aggressively advancing Phase 3 global trials (NSCLC & mCRC).
   • Explores combinations with ADCs (Padcev, IB6), potentially enhancing efficacy/timelines.
   • Strong execution capabilities support outpacing competitors.

3. Innovative Pipeline Expansion:

   • 705 (PD-1/HER2) enters Phase 2.
   • 706 (PD-1/PD-L1) IND approved, entering Phase 2.
   • First-in-class SPGL008 and SSS59 entering Phase 1 (enhanced efficacy/safety).

Investment Recommendation

• RATINGS: BUY with upside potential driven by global PD-1 & ADC combinations. Current Price: HK$29.96.

Target Price & Forecast

• Target Price: HK$37.58 (Buy Target).
• Alopecia: Sustained growth; TPIAO revenue remains under pressure.
• Growth: 35–94% revenue growth projected for 2025–2027 (notably 92% in 2025).
• Earnings (EPS): From 1.14 (2020E) to 35.90 (2022E), driven by margin expansion.

Stock Performance & Risk-Adjusted Valuation

• Current Price (HK$): HK$29.50.
• 52w Range: HK$33.55 / HK$5.52.
• DCF Sensitivity/Consensus: Confidence signals investment view, with neutral/mixed consensus results provided.
• Margin Analysis: Contribution to top line growth in 1H25 driven by SG&A expansion.

Analyst View Summary

• 3SBio's regulatory and clinical strategy presents significant growth potential across both China and global markets, supported by strong partnerships and pipeline differentiation.

Note: This summary excludes detailed disclosures, financial statements, and legal risk terms.