20220406-东吴证券国际经纪-众安在线-06060.HK-2021年报点评_承保利润_投资收益双升_归母净利润创新高_9页_2mb
报告摘要
FY21 Annual Report Summary: Zhong An Online (06060)
Core Content
Zhong An Online reported its FY21 annual results, showing a significant improvement in financial performance. The company achieved a record net profit of RMB1.17bn (+110.3% YoY) and a net asset of RMB16.75bn (+6.6% YoY). The gross written premiums (GWP) reached RMB20.37bn (+21.9% YoY), with a combined ratio of 99.6% (-2.9pct YoY) and ROE of 7.2% (+3.6pct YoY). The overall earnings exceeded expectations.
Main Points
1. Premium Growth & Investment Return
- Total GWP: RMB20.37bn (+21.9% YoY)
- Underwriting Profit: Turned positive for the first time in history, contributing to the overall net profit growth.
- Investment Income: RMB2.01bn (+66.4% YoY), with total investment return at 6.8%, significantly boosting net profit growth.
2. Segment Performance
- Health Insurance: Premiums at RMB7.69bn (+16.4% YoY), driven by enhanced product offerings and improved service quality.
- Digital Lifestyle: Premiums at RMB7.29bn (+15.8% YoY), with a 29% YoY growth due to effective strategies and innovative products.
- Consumer Finance: Premiums at RMB4.45bn (+105.7% YoY), showing strong recovery post-pandemic.
- Auto Insurance: Premiums at RMB0.95bn (-28.8% YoY), impacted by the auto insurance comprehensive reform.
- Technology Export Revenue: RMB520mn (+42.5% YoY), with the technology division's net loss ratio narrowing further.
3. Operational Efficiency
- Loss Ratio: 57.6% (+3.5pct YoY)
- Expense Ratio: 42.0% (-6.4pct YoY)
- Self-operated Channel: Generated RMB3.61bn (+66.4% YoY) in premium income, contributing 18% to total GWP.
- External Consulting Fees: Decreased by 24.8% to RMB2.31bn, lowering the proportion of total GWP to 11.3%.
- Cost Reduction: The company reduced costs and improved efficiency through technology empowerment, with channel expense ratios decreasing across segments.
4. Customer Growth
- Health Insurance Customers: Reached 18.21 million (+30.0% YoY)
- Technology Export Customers: Increased to 109 (+34 YoY), indicating strong expansion in this market.
5. Earnings Forecast & Rating
- 2022-2023 Revenue Estimate: Revised down to RMB26.7bn/RMB33.3bn from previous RMB32.3bn/RMB38.7bn.
- 2024 Revenue Estimate: RMB40.4bn.
- SPS (Share Price to Sales): 18.18/22.64/27.50 RMB for 2022-2024.
- P/S (Price to Sales): 1.21/0.97/0.80x for 2022-2024.
- Investment Rating: Maintain "Outperform" (Buy).
6. Risks
- Capital Market Volatility: May negatively impact investment returns.
- Health Insurance Competition: Intensifying in the market.
- Regulatory Environment: Tightening regulations for online insurance.
Key Financial Data
| Metric | FY20A (RMB) | FY21A (RMB) | 2022E (RMB) | 2023E (RMB) | 2024E (RMB) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Profit | 254 | 757 | 1,312 | 1,688 | 2,077 |
| Net Asset | 16,748 | 16,750 | 16,838 | 17,108 | 17,235 |
| GWP | 16,709 | 20,480 | 26,101 | 33,669 | 40,829 |
| Combined Ratio | 102.5% | 99.6% | 99.6% | 99.6% | 99.6% |
| ROE | 3.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% |
| BVPS (Book Value per Share) | 10.69 | 11.39 | 11.46 | 11.64 | 11.73 |
| P/S (Price to Sales) | 1.75 | 1.48 | 1.21 | 0.97 | 0.80 |
| P/B (Price to Book) | 2.06 | 1.94 | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.88 |
Market Data
- Closing Price (HKD): 27.05
- 52-Week Range (HKD): 18.20/50.85
- Market Cap (HKD mn): 38,405.94
- P/B (X): 2.01
- Currency Conversion: 1 HKD = 0.8158 RMB
Conclusion
Zhong An Online's FY21 results reflect a strong recovery and performance driven by both underwriting profit and investment returns. Despite challenges in the auto insurance segment, the company's focus on health insurance, digital lifestyle, and technology exports has created a unique competitive advantage. The revised revenue estimates and valuation metrics suggest continued growth potential, although short-term regulatory and market pressures may affect performance. The "Outperform" rating remains unchanged, highlighting the company's resilience and strategic positioning in the evolving insurance landscape.
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