20151113-USDA-Feed_Outlook_2015.11.13_18页_1mb

报告摘要

2015/16 Feed Outlook Summary

Core Content

The November 13, 2015 Feed Outlook report provides an analysis of U.S. and global feed grain supplies, use, and prices for the 2015/16 marketing year. It outlines key changes in production, demand, and trade dynamics for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats, with a focus on how these factors affect market prices and global stock levels.

Main Points

U.S. Corn Outlook

Production: Forecasted at 15,415 million bushels, the second-highest on record, due to higher yields.
Yield: Increased by 1.3 bushels per acre, with notable gains in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and North Dakota.
Use:
- Feed and residual use increased by 25 million bushels.
- Ethanol use decreased by 75 million bushels due to increased sorghum usage.
- Exports decreased by 50 million bushels, partly due to Brazil's competitiveness in global markets.
Prices: Season-average farm prices are projected at $3.65 per bushel, a $0.15 decrease from the previous month.
Ending Stocks: Projected at 1,760 million bushels, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.9%, up from 11.4% last month.

U.S. Sorghum Outlook

Production: Raised to 594 million bushels, with a record yield of 77.7 bushels per acre.
Use:
- Domestic use increased by 25 million bushels, driven by ethanol and feed demand.
- Exports decreased by 105 million bushels, with China's demand weakening and Mexico's increased purchases offering partial offset.
Prices: Season-average prices are projected at $3.60 per bushel, down $0.40 from the previous month due to increased supply and reduced demand.
Ending Stocks: Forecast at 58 million bushels, up 16 million from last month, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 10.4%.

Barley Outlook

Production: Unchanged, but imports decreased by 2 million bushels due to slower shipment pace from Canada.
Use:
- FSI use decreased by 3 million bushels.
- Feed use decreased slightly.
Prices: Season-average prices increased by $0.20 on the low end and $0.15 on the high end, with a midpoint of $5.20 per bushel.
Ending Stocks: Forecast at 96 million bushels, up 1 million from last month.

Oats Outlook

Balance Sheet: Unchanged.
Prices: Midpoint adjusted to $2.20 per bushel, with a $0.05 decrease from last month.
Market Context: Prices reflect relationships with other feed grains.

International Outlook

Global Coarse Grain Supplies

Production: Increased by 2.3 million tons to 1,269.6 million tons, with U.S. production offsetting foreign declines.
Beginning Stocks: Reached a record 243.1 million tons, with China's corn stocks increasing by 23.8 million tons to 114.4 million tons.
Ending Stocks: Projected to rise 24.3 million tons to 247.2 million tons, driven by high beginning stocks and slower use growth.

Global Coarse Grain Use

Use: Reduced by 10.0 million tons for 2015/16, with China's use cut by 8.7 million tons.
Use Growth: Slowed to 0.1% in 2015/16, from 8.7% in 2013/14 and 2.5% in 2014/15.
Factors:
- China's reduced feed and residual use due to lower pork and poultry production and higher sorghum and barley imports.
- EU and other regions showed reduced FSI use due to lower biofuel production.

Global Corn Trade

Exports: Projected to increase by 0.3 million tons to 128.0 million tons.
Key Exporters:
- Brazil: Forecasted to export 33.0 million tons in the October-September trade year.
- Argentina: Projected to export 17.0 million tons, supported by reduced export taxes.
U.S. Exports: Reduced by 1.0 million tons to 46.0 million tons, due to price competitiveness and slow sales.

Global Sorghum Trade

U.S. Exports: Reduced by 3.5 million tons to 7.5 million tons, with China's demand weakening.
Mexico: Increased sorghum imports by 0.5 million tons, partially offsetting the decline in U.S. exports.

Barley Trade

Global Trade: Increased by 0.2 million tons to 25.5 million tons.
Key Markets:
- Saudi Arabia: Increased imports by 0.5 million tons.
- Russia: Reduced exports by 1.0 million tons due to lower production.
- EU: Increased exports by 1.0 million tons, expected to be the largest exporter.

Key Changes in Global Stock and Use

China's Feed and Residual Use: Revised downward due to disease issues and import restrictions.
Brazil's Corn Use: Revised to reflect stronger domestic demand and higher exports.
India and South Africa: Reduced corn production and use due to weather issues and lower yields.
Ukraine: Reduced corn production by 2.0 million tons to 23.0 million tons due to drought and high temperatures.

Summary of Price Trends

Corn: Projected at $3.65 per bushel, down $0.15 from last month.
Sorghum: Projected at $3.60 per bushel, down $0.40.
Barley: Midpoint at $5.20 per bushel, up $0.20 on the low end and $0.15 on the high end.
Oats: Midpoint at $2.20 per bushel, down $0.05 from last month.

Key Information

U.S. Feed Grain Supplies: Projected at 417.6 million tons, a record high.
Global Coarse Grain Supplies: Reached 247.2 million tons, a record level.
Stocks-to-Use Ratio:
- Corn: 12.9% for 2015/16.
- Sorghum: 10.4%.
- Barley: 14.5 million tons in the EU, up 1.7 million.
Export Dynamics:
- U.S. exports are less competitive than Brazil's.
- Argentina is expected to increase exports due to reduced taxes.
- China is a key importer, but demand is slowing.

Tables and Data

Table 1: Provides U.S. quarterly supply and disappearance data for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats across different market years.
Key Metrics:
- Production and ending stocks are updated for each quarter.
- FSI use, feed and residual use, and exports are also detailed.

Outlook

Global Prices: Expected to remain lower due to increased supplies and reduced demand.
China's Role: Continues to be a major player in coarse grain markets, with high stocks and slower use growth.
U.S. Market: Corn and sorghum are both expected to see lower prices, with sorghum more affected due to supply shifts.
Trade Trends: Brazil and Argentina are projected to be major corn exporters, while U.S. exports face challenges due to price and currency factors.