20230428-东吴证券-中国石化-600028.SH-2023年一季报点评_境内成品油需求高速回弹_稳油增气盈利持续稳定_3页_443kb

Summary of China Petrochemical (600028) Q1 2023 Report

Key Performance Indicators

• Revenue: Increased by 3% year-over-year to 791.331 billion yuan in Q1 2023.
• Net Profit: Decreased by 12% year-over-year to 20.102 billion yuan, but surged by 108% year-over-year due to one-time factors.
• Non-Operating Profit: Rose significantly, contributing to the net profit increase.

Market and Operational Factors

• Crude Oil Prices: Wider fluctuations during Q1 2023, with average Brent crude at $82.10 per barrel, affecting margins.
• Demand Recovery: High rebound in domestic refined oil demand, driven by post-pandemic economic activity.
• Production and Sales: Increased refined oil sales by 101% year-over-year, supported by integrated operations and marketing networks.

Upstream Development

• Capacity Expansion: Ongoing exploration and production expansion in key regions, leading to higher output.
• Output Growth: Oil and gas equivalent production increased by 26%, with natural gas output growing by 53% year-over-year.

Refining and Chemical Adjustments

• Refining Operations: Maintained high plant utilization to maximize efficiency, despite lower crude processing volumes.
• Chemical Sector: Adjusted product mix to focus on high-value items like photovoltaic-grade EVA and styrene butadiene rubber, improving profitability amid industry challenges.

Financial Projections

• EPS and PE Ratios: For 2023-2025, forecasted net profits (excluding adjustments) of 77.8 billion yuan (17% YoY growth), 85.5 billion yuan (10% YoY growth), and 88.5 billion yuan (3% YoY growth), with corresponding PE ratios declining from 10.34x to 9.09x.
• Rating: Maintain "Buy" due to expected performance recovery and cost advantages.

Risks

• Potential Concerns: Geopolitical tensions, economic volatility, and slower-than-expected demand recovery in refined oil markets.

• End of Summary