20260608-招银国际-Capital_Goods_Momentum_of_earth-moving_machinery_sales_continued_in_May_4页_689kb

Summary of Capital Goods Industry Report

Core Content

The report provides an analysis of the performance and outlook for the construction machinery sector in China and globally, with a focus on earth-moving machinery such as excavators and wheel loaders. It highlights the continued momentum in sales, the growth of electric loaders, and the potential for industry outperformance.

Key Findings

Sales Growth in May 2026

• Excavator sales increased by 36% YoY, with domestic sales up 39% and exports up 34%.
• Wheel loader sales rose by 27% YoY, driven by domestic sales up 23% and exports up 33%.
• Electric loader sales surged by 79% YoY, with the electric ratio reaching a record high of 37%, attributed to high oil prices.

Industry Outlook

• The strong sales data indicates that the construction machinery industry is in an upcycle.
• The positive outlook is supported by global mining capital expenditure and elevated commodity prices.
• Chinese machinery players are gaining penetration in emerging markets.

Stock Recommendations

• The report recommends buying opportunities in the sector due to the mismatch between strong industry data and pullback in major names.
• Recommended stocks include:
  • Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH) - BUY
  • SANY Heavy (6031 HK /600031 CH) - BUY
  • SANY International (631 HK) - BUY
  • Jiangsu Hengli (601100 CH) - BUY, noted for strong sales of hydraulic components and potential in humanoid robot components.

Sales Trends and Projections

Figure 1: Monthly Excavator Sales in China

• Excavator sales in China have shown a steady increase over the years, with significant growth in 2026.

Figure 5: CMBI Excavator Sales Projection (by region)

• Export and domestic demand are projected to grow steadily.
• 2026E projections:
  • Export: 145,000 units
  • Domestic demand: 315,000 units
  • Growth: 16% YoY

Figure 6: Electric Wheel Loader Sales as a Percentage of Total Wheel Loader Sales

• Electric loader sales as a percentage of total sales have been rising, reaching 37% in May 2026.

Figure 10: CMBI Wheel Loader Sales Projection

• Wheel loader sales are expected to maintain a steady growth with replacement and new demand both projected at 145,000 units in 2026E, with growth of -15% YoY.

Downstream Applications

Additional Notes

• Sales data for other construction machinery will be released by CCMA later this month.
• Electric loader growth is linked to high oil prices.
• Jiangsu Hengli has shown strong performance in hydraulic components and has potential in humanoid robot components.
• CMBIGM ratings include:
  • BUY: Potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
  • OUTPERFORM: Industry is expected to outperform the broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.

Disclaimer

• The report is not investment advice and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions.
• Past performance does not indicate future results.
• The information is subject to change and not guaranteed.
• CMBIGM may have conflicts of interest and is not liable for any loss or damage arising from the use of this report.
• The report is intended for specific recipients and must not be distributed without prior written consent.