20260511-招银国际-Strong_sales_of_earth-moving_machinery_in_Apr_price_hikes_planned_for_excavators_4页_646kb

Summary of Document: Capital Goods Sector Analysis

Core Content Overview

The document provides an analysis of the performance and outlook for the construction machinery sector in China, with a focus on earth-moving machinery sales and price trends in April 2026. It also includes insights into downstream applications of construction machinery and projections for future sales.

Key Findings

Sales Performance in April 2026

• Excavator Sales:
  • Total sales: 28,745 units
  • Domestic sales: 16,920 units (+35% YoY)
  • Export sales: 11,825 units (+23% YoY)
  • Overall growth: 30% YoY
• Wheel Loader Sales:
  • Total sales: 15,432 units
  • Domestic sales: 8,411 units (+17% YoY)
  • Export sales: 7,021 units (+57% YoY)
  • Overall growth: 32% YoY

Electric Loaders

• Electric loader sales surged 90% YoY in April 2026
• Electric ratio reached a record high of 30%
• The increase is attributed to high oil prices, likely due to the Iranian war

Price Hikes

• SANY Heavy (6031 HK/600031 CH) announced a 5% price hike effective 15-May-26
• Liugong (000528 CH) announced a 5% price hike effective 20-May-26
• XCMG (000425 CH) announced a 3-5% price hike effective 1-Jun-26
• Zoomlion (1157 HK/000157 CH) already raised prices for excavators and some electric products in April

Market Outlook

• The positive sales growth reaffirms a positive outlook for the construction machinery sector in 2026
• Drivers include:
  • Upside from global mining capital expenditure (capex) due to elevated commodity prices
  • Penetration of Chinese machinery players in emerging markets

Major Players' Ratings

• Zoomlion (1157 HK/000157 CH): BUY
• SANY Heavy (6031 HK/600031 CH): BUY
• XCMG (000425 CH): NR (Not Rated)
• Liugong (000528 CH): NR (Not Rated)
• Jiangsu Hengli (601100 CH): BUY
• SANYI (631 HK): BUY

Downstream Applications of Construction Machinery in China

Sales Projections

Excavator Sales (Breakdown by Region)

• CMBI Projection: Figure 5 shows regional sales projections, indicating a steady trend with a focus on new demand and replacement cycles

Wheel Loader Sales

• CMBI Projection: Figure 10 provides sales projections for wheel loaders, showing a consistent growth pattern with a focus on replacement and new demand

Historical Sales Trends

• Excavator Sales: Figure 1 shows monthly sales data, indicating a stable trend in 2026
• Wheel Loader Sales: Figure 7 shows monthly sales data, with a slight decline in early months of 2026 but a steady trend overall
• Electric Wheel Loader Sales Ratio: Figure 9 highlights the increasing adoption of electric loaders, with a notable rise to 30% in April 2026

Analyst and Disclaimer Information

• Analyst: Wayne FUNG, CFA
• Contact: (852) 3900 0826 | waynefung@cmbi.com.hk
• Important Disclosures:
  • The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation
  • The analyst and associates have not traded in the stocks covered in the last 30 days and will not do so within 3 business days
  • The report is not an offer to buy or sell securities
  • CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice and recommends consulting a professional financial advisor

CMBIGM Ratings

Legal and Distribution Notes

• The report is intended for clients of CMBIGM or its affiliates only
• It may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, redistributed or published without prior written consent
• United Kingdom: Report is provided only to persons falling within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2) of the Financial Promotion Order 2005
• United States: Report is intended for major US institutional investors only and not for general distribution
• Singapore: Report is distributed by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited, an Exempt Financial Adviser, and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore

Conclusion

The construction machinery sector in China is showing strong sales growth, particularly in excavators and wheel loaders, with a notable increase in electric loader sales. Price hikes by major players are expected to mitigate margin concerns. The outlook remains positive due to global mining capex and Chinese companies' expansion into emerging markets. CMBIGM maintains a BUY rating on several key players and provides projections based on historical data and market trends.