20260616-招银国际-Capital_Goods_Solid_sales_of_cranes_in_May_early_sign_of_recovery_for_AWPs_6页_439kb

Capital Goods Sector Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the performance of the capital goods sector in May 2026, with a focus on construction machinery, including cranes, aerial work platforms (AWPs), excavators, wheel loaders, and forklifts. It highlights the sales trends, export figures, and the outlook for the sector, incorporating factors such as global mining capex, replacement demand, and the impact of geopolitical events.

Main Points

• Cranes Sales Growth:
  • Crawler crane sales increased by 34% YoY, while truck crane sales grew by 18% YoY. This growth is attributed to power projects and replacement demand.
  • Exports for crawler and truck cranes showed consistent growth, maintaining strong momentum since mid-2025.
• AWP Recovery:
  • AWP sales rose 30% YoY, indicating an early sign of recovery in China. Exports accounted for 69% of total AWP sales, growing by 36% YoY in May. Domestic sales also increased by 19% YoY, marking the second consecutive month of growth after more than two years of decline.
• Earth-Moving Machinery:
  • Excavator sales reached 24,794 units in May 2026, with a 36% YoY increase. Domestic and export sales both showed positive growth, with export growth remaining strong.
  • Wheel loader sales were 13,405 units in May 2026, growing 27% YoY, with both domestic and export sales showing growth.
• Market Outlook:
  • The construction machinery sector is viewed positively, driven by the global mining capex, non-earth-moving machinery upcycle, and Chinese machinery players' expansion into emerging markets.
  • The easing conflict in the Middle East and decline in oil prices are seen as risk reduction drivers.
• Investment Recommendations:
  • BUY recommendations are given to Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH), SANY Heavy (6031 HK /600031 CH), and SANY International (631 HK).
  • BUY recommendation also includes Jiangsu Hengli (601100 CH) due to its strong sales of hydraulic components and potential in humanoid robot components.
  • HOLD recommendation for Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) is noted, with upside risk due to stronger-than-expected AWP demand.

Key Figures and Trends

• Crawler Crane:
  • Sales: 351 units in May 2026
  • Domestic: +36% YoY
  • Export: +34% YoY
• Truck Crane:
  • Sales: 2,064 units in May 2026
  • Domestic: +26% YoY
  • Export: +8.6% YoY
• Tower Crane:
  • Sales: 396 units in May 2026
  • Domestic: -18% YoY
  • Export: -36% YoY
• Forklift:
  • Sales: 142,787 units in May 2026
  • Domestic: +16% YoY
  • Export: +16% YoY
• AWP:
  • Sales: 20,395 units in May 2026
  • Domestic: +19% YoY
  • Export: +36% YoY

Summary Table of Key Performance

Downstream Applications

Investment Ratings

Analyst Certification

• The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect personal opinions and that no compensation is directly or indirectly related to these views.
• The analyst confirms that no transactions were made in the stocks covered within 30 days prior to the report and will not make any transactions within 3 business days after the report's release.
• The analyst does not serve as an officer of any covered Hong Kong listed companies and has no financial interests in them.

Risk and Disclaimer

• There are risks involved in trading securities.
• The report is not tailored to individual investors and is for general information purposes only.
• Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• The report is for intended recipients only and cannot be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.
• CMBIGM may have investment banking relationships with the companies discussed and may have conflicts of interest.