20160816-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2016.08.17_24页_702kb

Rice Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report from the Economic Research Service (ERS) provides a comprehensive overview of the U.S. and global rice market outlook for the 2016/17 season. It includes updates on production, supply, use, exports, imports, and prices, as well as the impact of weather conditions and market dynamics on these forecasts.

Main Points

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• 2016/17 Production:
  • Projected at 244.3 million cwt, the highest on record, up 27% from the previous year.
  • Arkansas accounts for nearly half of the increase, with a record crop of 118.1 million cwt.
  • Mississippi is forecast at 14.5 million cwt, up 37% from the previous year.
  • Texas is projected to see the largest percentage increase, 69%, due to both area expansion and record yields.
  • California is expected to produce 49.2 million cwt, up 31%, with yields at 8,800 pounds per acre.
• Harvest Progress:
  • Harvest has started on the Gulf Coast, with Texas and Louisiana ahead of normal progress.
  • Arkansas and Missouri are also progressing well, with Arkansas at 92% headed and Missouri at 78%.
  • California is slightly behind, with 60% of the crop headed.
• Crop Conditions:
  • Overall U.S. crop condition is slightly below the previous year, with 66% rated as good or excellent.
  • Arkansas has the highest percentage of poor or very poor condition (11%), due to high temperatures.
  • Texas has 7% of the crop in poor or very poor condition, also due to extreme heat and severe storms.
• Supply Forecast:
  • U.S. total supplies are projected at a record 307.7 million cwt, up 16% from the previous year.
  • Ending stocks are forecast at 54.7 million cwt, the highest since 1985/86.
• Farm Price Forecasts:
  • Both classes of rice (long-grain and medium-/short-grain) have lowered season-average farm price forecasts.
  • All-rice SAFP is projected at $10.40-$11.40 per cwt, down 80 cents from the previous forecast.
  • Long-grain SAFP is $9.50-$10.50 per cwt, down 50 cents from the previous forecast.
  • California medium-/short-grain SAFP is $17.50 per cwt, the lowest since 2008/09.

U.S. Exports and Domestic Use

• Total Use:
  • Forecast at 253.0 million cwt, up 12% from the previous year, the highest on record.
  • Domestic use is projected at a record 138.0 million cwt, up 14% from the previous year.
• Exports:
  • Total exports are projected at 115.0 million cwt, up 10% from the year-earlier revised estimate.
  • Long-grain exports are forecast at 81.0 million cwt, up 11%, the highest since 2005/06.
  • Medium-/short-grain exports are forecast at 34.0 million cwt, up 7%.
  • U.S. milled rice exports are 78.0 million cwt, up 15%, the highest since 2010/11.
  • The U.S. is focusing on expanding exports to Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East.

International Outlook

• Global Production:
  • Forecast at a record 481.1 million tons, up 2% from the previous year.
  • Southeast Asia is expected to see the largest increase in production, up 4% from 2015/16.
  • India and the U.S. account for over a third of the global area expansion.
• Production Revisions:
  • Afghanistan, Bolivia, and Bangladesh saw downward revisions due to drought, low yields, and reduced plantings.
  • Iran and Australia had upward revisions due to increased area and better weather conditions.
• Global Consumption:
  • Forecast at a record 478.8 million tons, down 1.4 million tons from the previous forecast.
  • India accounted for most of the downward revision in consumption.
• Ending Stocks:
  • Forecast at 113.8 million tons, up 6.5 million tons from the previous forecast.
  • China accounts for the largest share of global ending stocks, 69.9 million tons, the highest since 2001/02.
  • The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 23.8%, nearly unchanged from the previous year.

Key Information

• U.S. Supply Forecast:
  • Record high of 307.7 million cwt, driven by increased production and stable imports.
• Global Trade:
  • Forecast at 40.6 million tons for 2017, a 2% decline from the previous year and the third consecutive year of decline.
• Export Revisions:
  • India raised its 2017 export forecast to 8.8 million tons.
  • Vietnam and Argentina saw reductions in their 2017 export forecasts.
• Import Revisions:
  • Cote d'Ivoire, EU, Afghanistan, and Haiti had upward revisions.
  • Bangladesh, Iran, Madagascar, and Iraq had downward revisions.
• Price Trends:
  • U.S. milled rice prices continue to decline.
  • California medium-/short-grain prices are at a 10-year low.
  • Southern medium-/short-grain prices are also down, with a 90-cent reduction from the previous year.

Summary of Market Outlook

• U.S. Production: Record high, with Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas leading the increase.
• Global Production: Record high, driven by India and the U.S..
• Global Trade: Declining trend continues, with India and Vietnam as key players.
• Ending Stocks: Highest since 1985/86, with China and India as major contributors.
• Price Forecasts: Both classes of U.S. rice are expected to have lower season-average farm prices due to increased supply and competition.

Conclusion

The 2016/17 season is expected to be a record year for U.S. rice production and supply, but with lower farm prices due to increased availability. Global production is also expected to reach a record, though trade is declining, and India is playing a significant role in both production and exports. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to remain high, which could further pressure prices. Weather conditions, particularly in Arkansas and Texas, remain a concern for crop quality.