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报告摘要

Economic Research Service Feed Outlook Summary - August 16, 2016

Core Content

The Economic Research Service (ERS) released the Feed Outlook for the 2016/17 marketing year, highlighting significant increases in production and supply for major feed grains, alongside changes in use and trade patterns. The report was approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) and the next release is scheduled for September 14, 2016.

Key Highlights

Corn Outlook

Projected Yield: 175.1 bushels per acre, a 7.1 bushel increase from the previous month’s trend projection and 4.1 bushels above the 2014/15 record.
Production: 15.2 billion bushels, 938 million above the 2014/15 record.
Supply: 16,909 million bushels, 628 million above last month’s forecast and 1,512 million above 2015/16.
Use:
- Feed and Residual Use: 5,675 million bushels, up 175 million.
- Exports: 2,175 million bushels, up 125 million, reaching the highest level since 2007/08.
Price:
- Season-Average Farm Price: $3.15 per bushel, 25 cents below last month’s forecast and the lowest since 2006/07.
- Price Range: $2.85 to $3.45 per bushel.
Ending Stocks: 2,409 million bushels, the highest since 1987/88.

Sorghum Outlook

Projected Yield: 73.5 bushels per acre, 8.4 bushels above July forecast.
Production: 151.7 million bushels, 122 million below 2015/16.
Supply: 511 million bushels, 45 million above last month’s forecast.
Use:
- Feed and Residual Use: 460 million bushels, 40 million above last month’s forecast.
- Ethanol Use: 118 million bushels, up 20 million.
- Exports: 250 million bushels, up 30 million.
Price:
- Season-Average Farm Price: $3.00 per bushel, 15 cents lower than July forecast.
- Price Range: $2.70 to $3.30 per bushel.
Ending Stocks: 51 million bushels, the largest since 2008/09.

Barley Outlook

Projected Yield: 2.7 bushels per acre, leading to 189.7 million bushels.
Production: Up 6.9 million bushels from last month.
Supply: 94.1 million bushels, up 6.9 million.
Price:
- Midpoint: $4.95 per bushel.
- Price Range: $4.55 to $5.35 per bushel.

Oats Outlook

Projected Yield: 66.0 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels.
Production: 76.9 million bushels, 12.7 million below 2015/16.
Supply: 228.7 million bushels, 245,000 above last month’s forecast.
Price:
- Midpoint: $1.80 per bushel.
- Price Range: $1.60 to $2.00 per bushel.
- Projected as the lowest since 2005/06.

Hay Outlook

Alfalfa and Other Hay Production: Up 5% compared to 2015.
Yield: 3.40 and 2.07 tons per acre for alfalfa and other hay, respectively.
Supply: 140.5 million tons, up 6.1 million from 2015.
Price:
- June All-Hay Price: $134 per ton, 30 per ton lower than June 2015.
- Alfalfa Hay Price: Down 20% from 2015 to $142 per ton.

Global Outlook

World Coarse Grain Production

Forecast: 1,322.6 million tons, up 1.5% from last month.
Year-to-Year Increase: 6.0%, surpassing the 2014/15 record.
Major Contributors: Rebound in U.S., Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa production.

World Coarse Grain Consumption

Forecast: 1,311.8 million tons, up 5.1% from the year before.
Annual Growth: 63.3 million tons, more than double the average growth rate of recent years.

World Corn Trade

Forecast: 133.7 million tons, 2.2% below 2015/16 but still the second highest ever.
Major Exporters: U.S. (55.0 million tons), Argentina (4.5 million), Brazil (down 13.5 million).
Major Importers: Mexico (up 7.8 million), Egypt (up 3.7 million), South Africa (up 2.5 million).
Trade Share: Slightly below the 2015/16 level as a share of consumption.

World Corn Ending Stocks

Forecast: 220.8 million tons, up 11.5 million from the year before.
Stocks-to-Use Ratio: 16.6%, up from 12.5% in 2015/16.
Global Stocks: 255.5 million tons, up 5.5% from the previous month.

Special Articles

"Boutique Brews, Barley, and the Balance Sheet" (January 2015)
"World Corn Use Expands Despite High Prices in 2012/13" (June 2013)
"Animal Unit Calculations—First Projections for the 2013/14 Crop Year" (May 2013)

Contacts and Subscription

Tom Capehart (Domestic): (202)-694-5313, tCAPEhart@ers.usda.gov
Stephen MacDonald (International): (202)-694-5610, stephenm@ers.usda.gov
Subscription: Email notifications at ERS e-mail notification service, or purchase printed copies from the USDA Order Desk.

Data and Resources

Feed Grains Database: Queryable database with monthly, quarterly, and annual data on prices, supply, and use.
Feed Outlook Tables: Available at Feed Monthly Tables.
Chart Gallery: ERS Feed Chart Gallery.
Related Websites:

Conclusion

The 2016/17 feed outlook reflects record-high production for corn and sorghum, driven by favorable growing conditions and lower prices. These factors have boosted feed and residual use, while export volumes have also increased, especially for corn. World coarse grain production and consumption are expected to reach record levels, with U.S. corn playing a central role in global trade. Despite increased production, ending stocks remain relatively high due to lower use and higher imports. The report also includes trade revisions and price projections, emphasizing the impact of global supply and demand dynamics on the U.S. market.