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Rice Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the U.S. and global rice market for the 2018/19 crop year and the 2019 marketing year. It outlines production, supply, use, and price forecasts, as well as trade trends and regional developments.

Main Points

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• 2018/19 U.S. Rice Crop Forecast:

  • Projected at 210.9 million cwt, a 1% decrease from the previous forecast, but 18% higher than the 2017/18 level.
  • The yield was slightly lower at 7,523 pounds per acre, but the increased harvested area (up 18% to 2.8 million acres) offset the yield decline.
  • Arkansas accounted for the majority of the production increase, with long-grain making up the bulk of the expansion.

• Crop Progress:

  • By August 5, 82% of the U.S. crop had headed, well ahead of the 5-year average of 70%.
  • Louisiana and Texas showed the most advanced progress, with 97% and 99% of crops headed, respectively.
  • California was slightly behind its 5-year average, with 50% of the crop headed.

• Supply and Use:

  • Total U.S. rice supplies for 2018/19 are projected at 272.6 million cwt, up 8% from 2017/18.
  • Domestic and residual use increased by 3.0 million cwt to 131.0 million cwt.
  • Exports were lowered by 4.0 million cwt to 98.0 million cwt, due to strong price competition from South American suppliers.

• Ending Stocks:

  • Projected to increase by 25% to 43.6 million cwt.
  • Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 30.6 million cwt, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 18.0%.
  • Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast at 9.5 million cwt, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 16.2%.

• Farm Prices:

  • Both long-grain and medium- and short-grain prices are expected to decrease.
  • Long-grain season-average farm price is projected at $10.50–$11.50 per cwt, down 20 cents from the previous range.
  • Medium- and short-grain season-average farm price is projected at $10.80–$11.80 per cwt, down 20 cents from the previous range.
  • The all-rice season-average farm price is projected at $11.40–$12.40 per cwt, down 20 cents from the previous range.

U.S. 2017/18 Revisions

• Export Forecast Lowered:

  • Total U.S. rice exports for 2017/18 were reduced by 3.5 million cwt to 86.5 million cwt.
  • Milled rice exports dropped to 57.5 million cwt, the lowest since 1975/76.
  • Venezuela and Libya accounted for the largest declines in rough-rice exports.

• Domestic Use Raised:

  • Total domestic and residual use increased to 130.0 million cwt, with long-grain up 1.0 million cwt and medium- and short-grain up 8%.

• Ending Stocks:

  • Total ending stocks for 2017/18 increased by 2.5 million cwt to 34.8 million cwt, 24.5% below a year earlier.
  • Long-grain ending stocks increased to 23.4 million cwt, 25% below the previous year.
  • Medium- and short-grain ending stocks decreased to 7.9 million cwt, the lowest since 1998/99.

International Outlook

• Global Production Forecast:

  • Projected at 487.6 million tons, a 0.2 million ton decrease from the previous forecast.
  • Production declines were noted in China, Colombia, Egypt, India, Iraq, Pakistan, South Korea, and Venezuela.
  • Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Guyana, Indonesia, Madagascar, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Thailand, and the U.S. saw increases in production.

• Global Consumption and Trade:

  • Consumption and residual use are projected to remain record highs.
  • Global rice trade in 2019 is expected to reach a record 49.45 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from 2018.
  • Pakistan is the main driver of the increase in global 2019 exports, with a record 4.3 million tons forecast.
  • U.S. 2019 exports are forecast at 3.2 million tons, a 0.1 million ton decrease from the previous forecast.

• Import Forecasts:

  • Iraq and Venezuela saw increased import forecasts for 2019.
  • China and Nigeria are projected to be the top importers in 2019.
  • Nigeria and Egypt account for most of the import increase.
  • Imports are expected to decline in Bangladesh, Ecuador, Indonesia, Madagascar, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Venezuela, with Indonesia and the Philippines experiencing the largest drops.

• Price Trends:

  • Thailand's export prices rose about 1%, while U.S. and Vietnamese prices declined.

Key Information

• U.S. production increased by 18% from the previous year due to expanded planting areas.
• Global stocks are projected to decrease slightly in 2018/19 due to consumption exceeding production.
• Trade dynamics are influenced by price competition, supply chain issues, and regional production changes.
• Prices are expected to decrease due to increased supply and lower demand in certain markets.