20220516-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2022.5.16_20页_414kb

报告摘要

Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of U.S. and global rice production, supply, use, and price forecasts for the 2022/23 market year and calendar year 2023. It highlights trends in domestic and international rice markets, including changes in production, imports, exports, and ending stocks, as well as price developments.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Production

Total U.S. production for 2022/23 is projected at 182.7 million cwt, a 5% decline from the previous year, the smallest since 2017/18.
Long-grain production is expected at 140.9 million cwt, down 3% and the lowest since 2019/20.
Combined medium- and short-grain production is projected at 41.8 million cwt, a 11.5% drop and the smallest since 1988/89.
The decline is primarily due to a 3% drop in harvested area (to 2.41 million acres) and a 1.5% decrease in yield.

Supply

Total U.S. supply for 2022/23 is forecast at 258.2 million cwt, a 11.8 million cwt decline or 4.3% from the previous year.
Beginning stocks are expected to be 37.5 million cwt, down 6.2 million cwt from the previous year.

Imports

All-rice imports are projected at 38.0 million cwt, a 10% increase and the highest on record.
Long-grain imports are expected to rise 7% to 30.0 million cwt, while medium- and short-grain imports are forecast at 8.0 million cwt, up 1.5 million cwt from the previous year.

Exports

Total U.S. rice exports for 2022/23 are projected at 82.0 million cwt, a 4% decline from the previous year, the lowest since 1996/97.
Long-grain exports are expected to drop to 61.0 million cwt, the lowest since 1996/97.
Combined medium- and short-grain exports are projected at 21.0 million cwt, unchanged from the previous year, the lowest since 2006/07.
Milled rice exports are forecast at 48.0 million cwt, the smallest since 1970/71, due to lower prices from Asian and South American exporters.

Use

Total domestic and residual use is projected at 143.0 million cwt, a 3% drop from the previous year.
Long-grain domestic and residual use is expected to be 113.0 million cwt, the smallest since 2019/20.
Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use is forecast at 30.0 million cwt, the smallest since 2014/15.

Ending Stocks

U.S. ending stocks for 2022/23 are projected at 33.2 million cwt, a 11.5% decline from the previous year, the smallest since 2019/20.
Long-grain ending stocks are expected at 18.3 million cwt, the lowest since 2019/20.
Combined medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast at 12.4 million cwt, the lowest since 2020/21.

Prices

U.S. season-average farm prices (SAFP) are expected to rise in 2022/23, driven by tighter supplies, higher input costs, and increased prices for other grains.
Long-grain SAFP is projected at $15.50 per cwt, up 12% from the previous year.
Southern medium- and short-grain SAFP is forecast at $16.00 per cwt, up 14% from the previous year.
California medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at a record high of $29.00 per cwt, up 16% from the previous year.
U.S. all-rice SAFP is expected at $17.80 per cwt, up 13% from the previous year.

U.S. International Outlook

Imports

Long-grain imports for 2022/23 are forecast at 28.0 million cwt, up 2% from the previous year.
Medium- and short-grain imports are expected to rise to 8.0 million cwt, up 1.5 million cwt from the previous year.
Thailand is the largest supplier of long-grain rice, with 110,739 tons imported in March 2022.
India is the largest supplier of medium- and short-grain rice, with 18,000 tons imported in March 2022.

Exports

Global rice trade in 2023 is expected to reach 54.3 million tons, up 3% from the previous year.
India, Thailand, and Pakistan are expected to increase their rice shipments.
China is projected to import 6.0 million tons in 2023, the largest increase globally.

Global Production

Global rice production for 2022/23 is forecast at a record high of 514.6 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from the previous year.
India is the largest contributor to the increase, with 130.0 million tons of production, up 1.0 million tons from the previous year.
Other countries with expected increases include Australia, Bangladesh, Burma, Indonesia, Iran, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Thailand.

Global Consumption and Residual Use

Global consumption and residual use are projected at 518.4 million tons, up 1.5% from the previous year.
China accounts for 156.6 million tons, up almost 1%, due to increased use of brokens in feed.
India is expected to consume 107.0 million tons, up 3%, driven by government distribution programs.

Global Ending Stocks

Global ending stocks for 2022/23 are projected at 186.3 million tons, down 2% from the previous year.
China is the largest contributor to the decline, with ending stocks projected at 109.0 million tons.
India is expected to increase ending stocks to 42.5 million tons, due to consecutive record crops.
Ending stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 35.9%, down from 37.2% in the previous year.

Key Market Trends

U.S. production is expected to be lower due to severe drought in California, high input costs, and strong prices for corn and soybeans.
Imports are projected to increase due to tighter U.S. supplies and growth in aromatic imports.
Exports are expected to decline due to higher U.S. prices and increased competition from South American and Asian exporters.
Global production is expected to rise, particularly in India, while global consumption is also projected to increase.
Global ending stocks are expected to decrease, especially in China, due to strong consumption growth.
Prices are expected to rise in the U.S. due to tighter supplies, higher input costs, and increased prices for other grains.