20151113-USDA-Rice_Outlook__2015.11.13_26页_813kb

报告摘要

Rice Outlook Summary (2015/16)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of U.S. and global rice production, supply, use, and prices for the 2015/16 marketing year. It also includes updates on trade forecasts and market trends. The report is issued by the Economic Research Service (ERS) and approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Production Forecast

Total U.S. production for 2015/16 is 190.8 million cwt, up 3.0 million cwt from the previous forecast due to higher yields.
Long-grain production is 132.4 million cwt, up 2.1 million cwt, but 19% smaller than the previous year.
Medium- and short-grain production is 58.4 million cwt, up 0.9 million cwt, and almost unchanged from the previous year.
Total supplies are 264.8 million cwt, up 1%, but 5% smaller than a year earlier.
Ending stocks remain 39.8 million cwt, unchanged from the previous forecast, but 18% below the 2014/15 level.

Prices

U.S. long-grain SAFP is projected at $11.50 - $12.50 per cwt, down $1.30 on both ends from last month.
U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP is $17.60 - $18.60 per cwt, up 30 cents from last month.
California medium- and short-grain SAFP is $21.00 - $22.00 per cwt, up 50 cents on both ends.
Southern medium- and short-grain SAFP is $12.50 - $13.50 per cwt, down $1.00 on both ends from last month.
U.S. long-grain milled-rice prices are unchanged from last month.
U.S. long-grain rough-rice prices declined.

Use and Exports

Total U.S. use is forecast at 225.0 million cwt, up 3.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but 2% below the previous year.
Domestic and residual use is 127.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt, but 1% below the previous year.
U.S. exports are projected at 98.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month, but 2% below the previous year.
Long-grain exports are 65.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt, but 8% below the previous year.
Medium- and short-grain exports are 33.0 million cwt, up 11% from the previous year.
Exports and outstanding sales for long-grain rough-rice were 24% ahead of a year earlier, while medium- and short-grain rough-rice were 53% behind.

Global Outlook

Production Forecast

Global production for 2015/16 is 473.5 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from last month and 1% below the previous year.
Production declines were reported in Bangladesh, Cambodia, and the Philippines, while Sri Lanka, South Korea, and the U.S. saw increases.
Thailand's production dropped 12.5%, and Cambodia's dropped 7%.
Philippines' production fell 3.5% due to damage from Super Typhoon Koppu.
Sri Lanka achieved a record production of 3.3 million tons, driven by larger area and higher yield.

Consumption and Stocks

Global consumption is projected at 486.2 million cwt, a 1.3 million ton decrease from the previous forecast, but up 1% from the previous year.
China and India account for most of the consumption decline.
Global ending stocks are projected at 91.0 million tons, up 3% from the previous forecast and 12% below the previous year.
Ending stocks are the smallest since 2007/08, with China, India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam accounting for the bulk of the decline.

Trade Forecast

Global trade for 2016 is 41.9 million tons, down 0.2 million tons from last month and 0.6 million tons below this year's trade.
Cambodia's 2016 export forecast was lowered by 0.2 million tons to 0.8 million tons due to a smaller crop.
Indonesia's 2016 import forecast was raised by 0.3 million tons to 1.6 million tons due to a recent deal with Thailand.
Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Cote d'Ivoire, Afghanistan, and the EU had downward revisions in their 2016 import forecasts.

Key Trends and Factors

U.S. production increased due to higher yields but remained 14% smaller than the previous year.
California had the highest yield in the U.S., while Arkansas and Texas had lower yields due to adverse weather and water restrictions.
Global production declined due to weather-related issues, particularly in South and Southeast Asia.
China and India are key drivers of global consumption and stock changes, with lower consumption due to higher prices and quality concerns.
Export declines in India, Cambodia, and the U.S. are expected to be partially offset by increased exports from Egypt, Pakistan, South America, and Thailand.
Low global ending stocks suggest potential price volatility in case of supply disruptions in major consuming countries.

Conclusion

The 2015/16 U.S. rice market shows slightly improved production due to higher yields, but overall supply remains below the previous year. Global production is down 1%, with major declines in Asia and the Americas, while some countries like Sri Lanka and South Korea saw increases. Global ending stocks are at their lowest since 2007/08, raising concerns about price stability. U.S. exports are expected to decline slightly, driven by smaller supplies and price competition. California continues to be a key player in medium- and short-grain rice, with favorable conditions supporting higher yields.