2025-2044年全球航空市场预测报告_34页_7mb

Global Market Forecast 2025 Summary

• Key Growth Indicators: The global aviation market experienced a strong year in 2024. Real GDP growth is at 2.7%, passenger Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) growth is 4.8%, airlines' gross operating load factor is 106%, and profit reached $61.9 billion. Short-term recovery shows limited impact on air transport, with ongoing rebound expected over the next 2-3 years.

• Regional Analysis: Most regional markets are at or above 2019 levels. Europe leads with an RPK growth of 11%, Asia-Pacific at 10%, and the Middle East also shows strong recovery. Growth drivers include GDP, population, and urbanization, with Asia-Pacific and Middle East leading future demand.

• Economic and Social Impact: Aviation contributes significantly to the economy, supporting 11.6 million direct jobs and 86.5 million jobs globally. It plays a critical role in connectivity for international tourists and remote areas, with over 155 million people working abroad relying on air travel.

• Sustainability and Technology: Unprecedented commitments to reduce emissions, with SAF capability up to 100% on commercial aircraft by 2030. Latest aircraft like the A220 and A321XLR offer better fuel efficiency and range, improving affordability and reducing costs. New generation planes are 25% more fuel-efficient, supporting the net-zero goal by 2050.

• Demand Forecast: The market will see a fleet growth of over 20,000 aircraft by 2044. High demand for single aisle aircraft (34,250 units) and widerbody aircraft (8,200 units) is expected, driven by emerging markets like India and China. Asia-Pacific and Middle East markets will continue to dominate 70% of the share.

• Outlook: Short-term factors like lower oil prices positively affect costs, but overall growth remains steady. Long-term CAGR is projected at 3.6%, with traffic growth modest in mature markets but stronger in Asia and the Middle East. Air transport affordability is improving due to better productivity and fuel efficiency.