2015年-世界发展银行全球_CPIA_Africa_June_2015___Assessing_Africas_Policies_and_Institutions_88页_8mb

2014 CPIA Results for Africa Summary

Core Content

The 2014 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) report for Africa provides an overview of the quality of policies and institutions across 38 IDA-eligible countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and two additional countries from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Djibouti and Yemen. The report highlights that while the overall quality of policies and institutions in SSA remained stable compared to 2013, there was significant variation in performance across individual countries.

The CPIA score ranges from 1 to 6, with 6 being the highest, and is based on both quantitative and qualitative assessments by World Bank staff. The report emphasizes the importance of CPIA scores in determining IDA's resource allocation to the poorest countries. It also explores the relationship between policy quality and poverty reduction, noting that better policies are associated with faster income growth for the bottom 40 percent of the population, although the correlation is modest.

Main Points

• Overall CPIA Score: The average CPIA score for Sub-Saharan Africa was 3.2 in 2014, the same as in 2013.
• Performance Variation: More than half of the countries in the region saw a change in their CPIA score, with 10 countries improving and 10 deteriorating.
• Top Improvers: Zimbabwe led with a 0.4-point increase, while several countries (Burundi, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritania, and Rwanda) saw a 0.1-point improvement.
• Top Deteriorators: Ghana experienced the sharpest decline with a 0.3-point drop, followed by The Gambia and Lesotho with 0.2-point declines.
• Cluster Trends:
  • Economic Management (Cluster A): Declined slightly to 3.3 from 3.4 in 2013, due to weak fiscal performance.
  • Governance (Cluster D): Showed improvement, with the score rising to 3.0 from 2.9 in 2013, driven by progress in budgetary and financial management.
• Fragile vs. Non-Fragile Countries: The average CPIA score for fragile countries in SSA was lower than non-fragile countries, but the gap narrowed in 2014 due to poorer performance in other regions.
• Income and Poverty Trends:
  • The bottom 40 percent of the population in SSA saw much lower income growth than the national average (1.8 vs. 2.1).
  • In non-SSA IDA countries, the bottom 40 percent's income growth was significantly higher than the national average (5.5 vs. 3.1).
  • CPIA scores are correlated with faster poverty reduction, though the correlation is weaker in SSA than in other regions.

Key Information

CPIA Components

• Cluster A: Economic Management

  • Fiscal policy performance was weak across many countries, with 11 countries experiencing a decline.
  • Oil-rich countries (CPIA score 3.1) performed worse than non-oil resource-rich (3.5) and non-resource-rich (3.3) countries.
  • Commodity price drops in 2014 worsened fiscal and economic management, especially for resource-dependent countries.
  • The fiscal deficit widened, and government spending increased, with public sector wage bills and social sector spending playing a major role.

• Cluster B: Structural Policies

  • The score for this cluster remained largely unchanged.

• Cluster C: Social Inclusion and Equity

  • Weakness in equity of public resource use was observed, particularly in conflict-affected or crisis-hit countries.
  • Five countries saw improvements in the environment indicator, but the overall cluster score remained constant at 3.2.

• Cluster D: Public Sector Management and Institutions

  • Governance cluster improved, with 9 countries showing gains, more than twice the number of countries with declines.
  • Progress was mainly in budgetary and financial management.

Notable Country Performances

• Zimbabwe: Improved significantly with a 0.4-point increase due to better policy information and recalibration of the assessment.
• Ghana: Experienced a sharp decline in CPIA score due to weakening macroeconomic management, declining financial environment, and governance issues.
• Rwanda: Score improved due to reduced debt distress risk and legal and governance reforms.
• Democratic Republic of Congo: Improved debt management, leading to a significant upgrade in its Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability rating.
• Tanzania: Published a third medium-term debt strategy and conducts regular debt sustainability analyses.
• Yemen and Djibouti: Covered in the report for the first time, with their CPIA scores and cluster trends analyzed.

Trends and Challenges

• Commodity Price Drops: Had a significant negative impact on economic management and fiscal sustainability, especially for oil and mineral exporters.
• Fiscal Policy: Showed a decline in quality, with fiscal deficits widening and government spending outpacing revenue growth.
• Debt Management: Improved in several countries, with non-oil resource-rich countries showing the most progress.
• Fragile Countries: Continued to lag behind non-fragile countries in CPIA scores, but the gap narrowed in 2014 due to poorer performance in other regions.

Conclusion

The 2014 CPIA report highlights the mixed performance of African countries in terms of policy and institutional quality. While there were improvements in some areas, such as governance and debt management, the overall economic management cluster weakened. The report underscores the importance of policy quality in driving inclusive growth and poverty reduction, especially for the bottom 40 percent of the population, and identifies key challenges related to fiscal sustainability and resource management in the region.