世界发展银行-Climate-Change-and-Marine-Fisheries-in-Africa-_-Assessing-Vulnerability-and-Strengthening-Adaptation-Capacity_76页_14mb

Summary: Climate Change and Marine Fisheries in Africa

Core Content

This report by the World Bank assesses the vulnerability of marine fisheries in Africa to climate change and explores how to strengthen adaptation capacity. It combines ecological and socioeconomic modeling to predict future changes in fish catch potential and evaluate the associated risks to coastal communities. The findings highlight the significant impact of climate change on fisheries, especially in tropical regions, and the need for policy interventions to manage these effects.

Main Points

• Climate Change Impact on Fisheries:
  Climate change is expected to significantly affect marine fisheries in Africa by 2050 and 2100. Tropical West African countries, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Liberia, and São Tomé and Príncipe, are projected to experience a reduction in Maximum Catch Potential (MCP) of 30% or more by 2050. By 2100, the largest decreases in MCP (40% or more) are likely to occur in these same countries. In contrast, higher-latitude regions like Senegal, The Gambia, and Cabo Verde may see only moderate decreases or even slight increases in catch potential.

• Socioeconomic Importance of Fisheries:
  Marine fisheries are a critical source of employment, food, and income for many African coastal communities. The sector supports livelihoods, especially for women and vulnerable groups, and contributes significantly to food security and nutrition. Fish provides a large share of animal protein and essential nutrients in many African countries, with up to 400 million people relying on fish as a dietary staple.

• Value of the Fisheries Sector:
  The total value of marine fisheries in Africa is estimated to be around USD15 billion, accounting for approximately 0.78% of the continent's GDP. When including postharvest activities, the value increases to over USD25 billion, or 1.3% of GDP. Postharvest activities, particularly processing, contribute significantly to the overall value of the sector.

• Socioecological Risk:
  Socioecological risk is influenced by exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation capacity. While ecological risks are largely out of the control of African coastal states, socioeconomic risks can be mitigated through effective fisheries management and policy interventions. Countries with high ecological risk may not necessarily face high socioecological risk if they have strong adaptation capacity.

• Adaptation Needs:
  Decision makers in African coastal countries must rethink fisheries management strategies in light of climate change. Adaptation measures are essential to protect fisheries and the livelihoods of those who depend on them. The report emphasizes the need for cost-effective and evidence-based interventions to enhance resilience and support the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Key Findings

• Ecological Risks:

  • Low-latitude countries, especially in tropical West Africa, will be most affected by climate change.
  • MCP is expected to decrease by 30% or more in several tropical West and Central African countries by 2050.
  • By 2100, the largest MCP decreases (40% or more) are projected in countries like Ghana, São Tomé and Príncipe, Liberia, and Côte d'Ivoire.
  • Higher-latitude countries are projected to experience less severe impacts on MCP.

• Socioecological Risks:

  • The Horn of Africa, parts of West Africa, and Nigeria are particularly at risk.
  • Socioecological risk varies based on the effectiveness of fisheries management and adaptation capacity.
  • Fishing communities are especially vulnerable due to their reliance on fisheries for livelihoods and food security.

• SDGs and Africa 2063:

  • Climate change impacts on fisheries will hinder progress toward several SDGs, including poverty reduction (SDG 1), food security (SDG 2), and health (SDG 3).
  • The report supports SDG 8 (Decent work and economic growth) by highlighting the role of fisheries in job creation.
  • It also aligns with SDG 13 (Climate action) and SDG 14 (Life below water).
  • The findings contribute to the African Union's Agenda 2063, which aims to transform the continent's socioeconomic landscape.

Methodology

• The report uses ecological and socioecological simulation models to forecast impacts on fish stocks and the fisheries sector.
• It evaluates both observed and modeled ecological impacts, such as ocean acidification, sea-level rise, and changes in water temperature and ocean currents.
• Socioecological risk scores are used to distinguish between ecological and socioeconomic impacts and to assess vulnerability.
• The analysis is supported by data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and other institutions, including the Nordic Development Fund and the Nippon Foundation Nereus Program.

Conclusion

• Climate change is a game changer for fisheries management in Africa, requiring a comprehensive and adaptive approach.
• While some countries may see benefits from climate change, the overall trend indicates significant challenges for marine fisheries.
• Strengthening adaptation capacity and improving fisheries management are critical to ensuring the sustainability of marine resources and supporting the livelihoods of coastal communities.
• The report provides a foundation for informed policy decisions and investment strategies aimed at enhancing resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change.

Supporting Information

• Annex 1: Provides data on the volume and value of catches, including reconstructed catch data.
• Annex 2: Describes the models and methodologies used in the analysis.
• Annex 3: Defines and sources the socioecological indicators used in the report.