2017年-世界发展银行全球_CPIA_Africa_July_2017___Assessing_Africas_Policies_and_Institutions_96页_7mb

2016 CPIA Results for Africa Summary

Core Content

The 2016 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) for Africa report evaluates the quality of policies and institutions across 38 Sub-Saharan African countries eligible for support from the International Development Association (IDA). It highlights the overall weakening of policy and institutional quality in the region, driven by challenging global and domestic conditions. The report is structured around four CPIA clusters: economic management (Cluster A), structural policies (Cluster B), policies for social inclusion and equity (Cluster C), and public sector management and institutions (Cluster D).

The CPIA scores range from 1 to 6, with 6 being the highest. The average CPIA score for IDA-eligible countries in Sub-Saharan Africa dropped to 3.1 in 2016, the lowest since the 2006-2008 period. This decline reflects a broader trend of deteriorating policy performance, with 40% of countries experiencing a decline in CPIA scores, compared to 2015. Only 7 countries saw improvements, indicating a significant imbalance in the progress of policy and institutional reforms.

Main Points

1. Regional Performance Trends

• Economic Resilience: A few countries showed resilience, including Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Rwanda, Senegal, and Tanzania, which had better policy and institutional quality.
• Performance Disparity: The dispersion in policy and institutional quality increased, with more than half of the region's countries scoring 3.2 or below.
• Impact of Global and Domestic Conditions: Weak economic performance in 2016 was attributed to low commodity prices, slow global growth, and domestic instability, which eroded macroeconomic buffers and constrained policy responses.

2. CPIA Cluster Analysis

Cluster A: Economic Management

• The average score for economic management fell to 3.2, continuing the downward trend since 2014.
• Monetary and exchange rate policy scores dropped to 3.3, the lowest in over 10 years.
• Fiscal policy and debt policy also weakened, with most countries experiencing a decline in these areas.
• Commodity exporters and fragile states were most affected, with many struggling to stabilize their economies.

Cluster B: Structural Policies

• Financial inclusion improved in several countries, especially in digital financial services.
• However, rising financial sector risks in some countries pulled down the performance of this cluster.
• The overall structural policies score remained stable, despite declines in some areas.

Cluster C: Social Inclusion and Equity

• Human development and social protection showed slight improvements in some countries.
• Gains in health sector performance were noted in a few nations, and safety net programs were strengthened in others.
• Despite these improvements, the overall cluster score did not improve significantly.

Cluster D: Public Sector Management and Institutions

• There was a modest net gain in the number of countries improving in this cluster, with 10 countries showing progress and 6 declining.
• Public administration quality improved, but the overall cluster score remained unchanged.
• Governance continues to lag behind other clusters, with an average score of 3.0.

Key Information

• Rwanda led the region with a CPIA score of 4.0, followed by Senegal and Kenya with scores of 3.8.
• South Sudan and Mozambique saw the largest declines, with 0.3-point drops in CPIA scores.
• Zimbabwe had a 0.2-point decline, reversing a previous gain, due to lack of fiscal prudence and central bank financing.
• CPIA scores for non-fragile countries in Sub-Saharan Africa remained comparable to similar countries elsewhere, while fragile countries generally lagged behind.
• The average CPIA score for IDA countries in Sub-Saharan Africa is weaker than the average for other IDA countries globally.

Conclusion

The report underscores the urgent need for structural and institutional reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa to improve productivity and achieve sustainable and inclusive growth. It also highlights the importance of macroeconomic stability and the role of resilient policy frameworks in mitigating economic shocks. While some progress was made in specific areas like financial inclusion and social protection, the overall trend indicates that policy and institutional quality is weakening, with fragile and commodity-dependent countries facing the most challenges.

The CPIA provides a valuable tool for governments, private sector, civil society, and researchers to monitor progress and benchmark performance against other countries. The 2016 results serve as a baseline for future assessments and a call to action for policymakers to address the root causes of policy degradation and strengthen governance.