20230729-华创证券-每周高频跟踪_地产进入政策等待期_12页_1mb

Summary of the July 29, 2023 Bond Weekly Report
The report analyzes high-frequency data to track economic indicators, with a focus on real estate, inflation, industrial production, investment, and consumption. Key findings include:

• Real Estate and Policy: After a loose policy stance from the Politburo meeting and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, July saw a 25% ring increase in 30-city new home sales, but this remains 32-34% below 2022 levels. Core first-line cities' policy loosening may boost confidence, but broader market recovery is pending further actions.

• Inflation: Pork prices rose 25% year-on-month due to supply constraints and strong demand from summer, while food inflation overall eased slightly. Export data: Container indices surged, with SCFI up 65% month-over-month, reflecting improved global demand. Industrial indicators: Coal prices held steady at 717 yuan/ton as demand slowed; steel prices rose 26% amid policy expectations for stable production control, but cement continued to decline. Consumer side: Car sales showed slight improvement, with 7 July retail and wholesale data 5% higher year-on-year; entertainment demand remained strong with film tickets up 275% year-on-year.

• Overall Outlook: Economic growth policies may gain momentum, with real estate entering a wait period for policy support. Risk: Faster-than-expected real estate policy relaxation could influence market dynamics.

Source: Huichuang Securities Research, July 2023.