期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Fall1979_28页_735kb

NBER Reporter Summary: Fall 1979

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Fall 1979 focuses on the economics of the family, highlighting changes in family structure and behavior over the past thirty years. It also includes summaries of research on youth employment, monetary trends, and economic outlook.

Main Topics and Key Information

1. Economics of the Family

• Objective: To better understand the behavior of the family and the causes of its structural changes.
• Major Changes:
  • Fertility rates have declined significantly since the baby boom.
  • Marriage rates have remained high, but women's age at first marriage has increased.
  • Divorce rates have doubled in the past fifteen years.
  • Married women's labor force participation has tripled since 1950.
• Consequences:
  • The number of female-headed households and children living with only one parent has increased.
• Research Questions:
  • What are the dimensions and causes of changes in family structure in the postwar era?
  • What has contributed to the persistence and stability of the family as a social institution?

2. Key Studies and Findings

• Divorce Rates:

  • Gary S. Becker and Robert T. Michael found that unexpected events such as high or low income, unemployment, or infertility can increase the likelihood of divorce.
  • Improved birth control in the early 1960s is linked to the rise in divorce rates in the late 1960s and 1970s.
  • Lower birth rates and increased labor market orientation among women have contributed to the trend.

• Living Alone:

  • The proportion of adults living alone increased from 4% to 11% since 1950.
  • Fuchs, Michael, and Scott found that higher real income is the main driver of this trend, especially among elderly widowed women (now 2 out of 3 live alone).

• Fertility Rates:

  • L. W. Kenny analyzed how adult wages during childbearing years influence fertility rates.
  • The value of parental time is a key determinant in fertility decisions.

• Wage Trends:

  • The female-to-male wage ratio has risen only slightly in dollar terms, but job training and promotion have led to substantial wage gains for women.
  • Lazear argues that relative wage increases for women are due to higher promotion rates and more job training, not just higher pay.

• Functions of the Family:

  • Becker explores the economic functions of the family, including child rearing, resource allocation, and risk sharing.
  • Willis studies the role of the family in old age security in developing countries.
  • Kotlikoff and Spivak examine the family as an incomplete annuities market.
  • Economies of scale in household size are a significant incentive for forming families.

• Complementarity Between Spouses:

  • Kenny studied how one spouse's employment affects the other's wage earnings.
  • The research on the family complements other NBER programs, including social insurance, health economics, and labor economics.

Youth Employment Problem

Nature of the Youth Employment Problem

• White male youth employment rates have changed only modestly, but white female employment rates have risen significantly.
• Black youth employment has declined, while unemployment has increased, particularly among black youths.
• High school dropouts are more likely to be unemployed or not employed than graduates.
• Unemployment is concentrated among those with low education, lower income, and non-white youths.

Causes: Market Determinants

• Aggregate economic activity significantly affects youth employment. Higher economic activity is linked to higher employment rates.
• Unemployment rate for adult males is a useful indicator. A 1 percentage point increase in adult male unemployment is associated with a 5% decrease in youth employment.
• Industrial mix and economic status of the area influence youth employment. Areas with industries that traditionally employ many young workers show higher employment rates.
• Poverty levels in an area affect youth employment and non-employment rates.
• Relative number of youths in the population may lead to lower wages rather than lower employment rates.

Causes: Individual Determinants

• Education, family background, and race are important individual determinants of youth employment and wages.
• Education is strongly linked to employment and wages, especially academic success.
• Family background influences the type of job a youth obtains, with wealthier families securing better-paying jobs.
• Race affects employment and wage rates, with blacks generally employed less than whites, though wage rates are similar.

Consequences

• Unemployment early in life does not necessarily lead to long-term unemployment.
• Wage rates early in a person's career are not strongly correlated with future wage rates, once individual differences are controlled.
• Experience plays a key role in wage increases, so not working during youth leads to lower future wages.
• There is no evidence that early unemployment leads to massive future unemployment.

Monetary Trends

• Anna J. Schwartz discusses a study on monetary trends in the U.S. and U.K. over the past century.
• The study, initially titled "Trends in Money, Income, and Prices in the United States", was expanded to include the U.K..
• The research explores the relationship between money, income, prices, and interest rates.

Additional Sections

• Research Summaries include discussions on youth employment, monetary trends, and economic outlook.
• NBER Profiles and Conferences provide information on NBER members and events.
• Current Working Papers highlight ongoing research, including studies on family structure, youth employment, and monetary trends.

Conclusion

The NBER's research on the economics of the family reveals significant structural changes and persistent social functions. Despite these changes, the family remains a central institution in American society, influencing economic decisions, labor market outcomes, and social stability. The research also underscores the complexity of youth employment, with market and individual factors playing a crucial role in shaping outcomes.