20211101-招银国际-China_Property_Developers_10M2021_Pre-sales_3页_709kb
报告摘要
CMBI Credit Commentary: China Property Developers 10M2021 Pre-sales Summary
Core Content
This document provides an analysis of the pre-sales performance of China property developers for the first ten months of 2021 (10M2021), based on data from the China Index Academy. The focus is on the monthly and yearly growth trends of sales, highlighting both underperforming and outperforming developers.
Main Points
-
Overall Performance:
- The 42 developers' pre-sales showed a slight improvement from September 2021, with a +4% MoM increase, but still experienced a significant -32% YoY decline compared to October 2020.
- The overall trend indicates a decline in sales performance across the industry due to market conditions and regulatory pressures.
-
Underperforming Developers (Negative YoY Growth):
- CENCHI: RMB3.2bn, -54% YoY
- JINGRU: RMB0.8bn, -74% YoY
- KAISAG: RMB4.9bn, -59% YoY
- REDPRO: RMB3.5bn, -81% YoY
- SUNSHI: RMB10.6bn, -54% YoY
- These developers are experiencing severe declines, likely due to weaker demand and financial constraints.
-
Outperforming Developers (Positive or Less Negative YoY Growth):
- AGILE: RMB11bn, -27% YoY
- FTLNHD: RMB24bn, -14% YoY
- GRNLGR: RMB21bn, -11% YoY
- LOGPH: RMB12bn, -12% YoY
- SUNAC: RMB51bn, -28% YoY
- TPHL: RMB9bn, -19% YoY
- DEXICN: RMB5.2bn, +59% YoY
- KWGPRO: RMB9.4bn, -25% YoY
- JNHUIG: RMB7bn, -23% YoY
- REDSUN: RMB7bn, -8% YoY
- ZHPRHK: RMB13bn, -5% YoY
- These developers managed to maintain better performance, possibly due to stronger brand recognition, better financial management, or more favorable market conditions.
-
Key Metrics:
- MoM Growth: Indicates the month-over-month change in pre-sales, with most developers showing a decline, but some showing improvement.
- YoY Growth: Reflects the year-over-year change, highlighting the overall downturn in the market.
- YTD Sales: Shows cumulative sales from January to October 2021.
- YTD Growth: Indicates the year-to-date growth compared to the same period in 2020.
- Target Contract Sales: The sales targets set for the developers.
- Target Filled: The percentage of sales targets achieved by the developers.
Key Developers Analysis
| Developer | MoM Growth | YoY Growth | YTD Sales (RMB mn) | YTD Growth | Target Contract Sales (RMB mn) | Target Filled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 中国金茂 | 46% | -9% | 195,900 | 9% | 250,000 | 78% |
| 中国海外发展 | -25% | -42% | 300,160 | 5% | - | - |
| 华润置地 | -8% | -20% | 250,200 | 16% | 315,000 | 79% |
| 万科企业 | 3% | -27% | 519,130 | -5% | 790,000 | 66% |
| 碧桂园 | 18% | -6% | 493,740 | -1% | 624,000 | 79% |
| 龙湖集团 | -7% | -24% | 226,030 | 5% | 310,000 | 73% |
| 保利地产 | 46% | -8% | 460,200 | 9% | - | - |
| 世茂房地产 | -4% | -28% | 243,210 | 5% | 330,000 | 74% |
| 远洋集团 | -9% | -8% | 103,880 | 13% | 150,000 | 69% |
| 融创中国 | 10% | -28% | 512,600 | 14% | 640,000 | 80% |
| 佳兆业集团 | -49% | -54% | 164,500 | -3% | 220,000 | 75% |
| 阳光城集团 | -49% | -54% | 164,500 | -3% | 220,000 | 75% |
| 正荣地产 | 22% | -5% | 135,770 | 24% | 150,000 | 91% |
| 中梁控股 | 1% | -24% | 143,300 | 10% | 180,000 | 80% |
Conclusion
The report emphasizes the mixed performance of China property developers in the first ten months of 2021. While some developers have managed to maintain relatively stable sales, others have seen significant declines. The overall market trend suggests a challenging environment, with most developers reporting negative YoY growth. The analysis also highlights the importance of sales targets and their achievement rates, which can indicate the health of each developer's business strategy and market position.
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