UBS_Equities-First_Read_China_Property_Top_100_developers_sales_in_Dec...-112507533_16页_1mb

报告摘要

Top 100 Developers' Sales: Contract sales volume for China's Top 100 developers declined 1% YoY in December 2024, better than the -10% YoY in November 2024. On a monthly basis, sales rebounded 23% MoM, stronger than the average 21% MoM increase from 2019 to 2023, indicating policy easing support.
Policy Impact: Developers increased project launches leveraging post-policy-slackening opportunities. A sustained recovery depends on improving job market/ incomes and mortgage rates being cheaper than rental yields.
Secondary Market Activity: Secondary transaction momentum remains strong, with 50-city listings increasing 0.2% YTD and tier-1 cities showing resilience despite a 1% MoM decrease in listings. Transactions in 12 cities surged 69% YoY.

SOE vs Non-SOE Developers: SOE developers outperformed with +10% YoY contract sales growth, driven by access to capital and strong demand in prime locations. Non-SOE developers saw declines (e.g., semi-SOE down 26% YoY). Specific SOEs like COLI and CRL showed strong YoY growth, while non-SOE firms like Poly dropped.
Company Comparison: Among Top 100, SOE developers (e.g., COLI, CRL) led, while non-SOE (e.g., Poly) lagged, reflecting market preference for secondary properties due to project quality concerns.

Residential Sales: Primary residential sales in 30 cities rose 25% YoY in December, supported by policy stimulus and market dynamics.
Gross Sales and GFA: Combined contract sales value for Top 100 developers was flat YoY, while gross floor area (GFA) decreased 4% YoY, indicating slower expansion.
Secondary Listings: BEKE data shows strong secondary market activity, highlighting ongoing demand for resale properties.

Downside Risks: Government policies restricting demand/ lending; tight financing conditions for developers; slower-than-expected economic growth.
Upside Catalysts: Material policy loosening could boost sales/investments; large-scale asset disposals at fair prices to improve liquidity.

Valuation based on PE/PBV multiples; short-term outlook neutral to positive, with factors like policy support and improving liquidity sustaining recovery.

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