20150708-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock markets, highlighting key trends, stock performances, valuations, and external market conditions. It includes insights on sector performance, major indices, ETFs, and short-selling activity.

Main Points and Key Information

Market Trends and Indices

HSI (Hang Seng Index):
- Closed at 24,975, down 1.0% from the previous day and 5.8% year-to-date (YTD).
- Initial support at 250-day moving average (MA).
HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index):
- Closed at 11,827, down 3.3% from the previous day and 1.3% YTD.
- Initial support at 250-day MA.
Shanghai Composite:
- Closed at 3,727, down 1.3% from the previous day and up 15.2% YTD.
Shenzhen Composite:
- Closed at 1,933, down 5.3% from the previous day and up 36.6% YTD.

Sector Performance

Best Performing Sectors (1D % change)

HK Telecoms: +3.1%
REITs: +0.3%
Local Property: -0.7%
Gaming: -0.9%
IPP (Independent Power Producers): -1.2%
Airline: -1.3%
HK Consumer Group: -1.4%
Consumer Staples: -1.5%
Local Banks: -1.8%
Logistics: -1.9%
Chinese Telecoms: -2.1%
Chinese Banks: -2.5%
Sports accessories: -2.7%
Dairy: -2.7%
Toll Road: -3.4%

Top Stocks in Best Performing Sectors

HK Telecoms: HutchTel HK (215), Smartone (315), HKT-SS (6823)
REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (2778)
Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
Gaming: Galaxy Ent. (27), SJM Hldg (880), Wynn Macau (1128), Sands China (1928), MGM China (2282)
IPP: China Res Power (836), Huaneng Power Int'l (902), Datang Int'l Power (991), Huadian Power Int'l (1071), China Power Int'l (2380)
Airline: Cathay Pacific (293), China East Air (670), Air China (753), China South Air (1055)
HK Consumer Group: Sa Sa Int'l (178), Cafe De Coral (341), Luk Fook (590), Bonjour (653), I.T (999)
Consumer Staples: Want Want (151), Uni-President (220), Tingyi (322), Hengan Int'l (1044), Sun Art Retail (6808)
Local Banks: Hang Seng Bank (11), BEA (23), Chong Hing Bank (1111), BOCHK (2388), Dah Sing Banking (2356)
Logistics: Kerry Log Net (636), SITC (1308)
Chinese Telecoms: China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941)
Chinese Banks: CCB (939), ABC (1288), ICBC (1398), BankComm (3328), BOC (3988)
Sports accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xstep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2231)
Dairy: Biostime (1112), CH Modern (1117), YST Dairy (1431), Mengniu (2319), Huishan Dairy (6863)
Toll Road: Sichuan Express (107), Jiangsu Express (177), Shenzhen Express (548), Zhejiang Express (576), Anhui Expressway (995)

Forward P/E and Valuations

Index	FY15E P/E (X)	Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E (X)	Deviation from Avg. (%)	FY1 EPS Growth (%)	FY2 EPS Growth (%)
Hang Seng Index	11.9	11.4	+4.4	-13.1	+9.7
HSCEI	8.4	8.9	-5.3	+2.3	+10.3
Shanghai Comp	15.7	11.1	+41.1	+21.7	+13.3
S&P 500	17.5	14.4	+21.9	+4.9	+11.9

Market Data

Best and Worst Performers

Best Performers (1D % change):

SMARTONE TELECOM (315.HK): +11.7%
PIONEER PHARM (1345.HK): +8.2%
CHINA OIL AND GA (603.HK): +3.3%
JOHNSON ELEC H (179.HK): +2.2%
MENGNIU DAIRY (2319.HK): +1.9%

Worst Performers (1D % change):

NORTH MINING SHA (433.HK): -32.0%
FORGAME HOLDINGS (484.HK): -20.4%
SFCE (1165.HK): -20.0%
WISDOM HOLDINGS (1661.HK): -17.4%
NETDRAGON WEBS (777.HK): -17.0%

HSCI Volume Filter

TRAVELSKY TECH-H (696.HK): -7.7%, +344.0% volume increase
BOER POWER HOLDI (1685.HK): -3.6%, +341.0% volume increase
TIANNENG POWER (819.HK): -5.8%, +311.9% volume increase
CHINA SHINEWAY (2877.HK): -0.4%, +296.0% volume increase
CHINA SHENGMU OR (1432.HK): -6.6%, +282.4% volume increase
HONGHUA GROUP (196.HK): -11.9%, +275.0% volume increase
SPT ENERGY GROUP (895.HK): -15.3%, +258.8% volume increase
SMARTONE TELECOM (315.HK): -11.7%, +250.1% volume increase
ZHUZHOU CSR-H (3898.HK): -2.2%, +238.5% volume increase
BOER POWER HOLDI (1685.HK): -3.6%, +341.0% volume increase

Most Short Sold Stocks

SHANGRI-LA ASIA (69.HK): -1.7%, 0.1% of total short sell turnover
VTECH HLDGS LTD (303.HK): +0.5%, 0.1% of total short sell turnover
MELCO INTL DEV (200.HK): -1.2%, 0.2% of total short sell turnover
JIANGSU EXPRES-H (177.HK): +0.4%, 0.2% of total short sell turnover
WEICHAI POWER-H (2338.HK): -20.0%, 0.3% of total short sell turnover
WISDOM HOLDINGS (1661.HK): -17.4%, 0.1% of total short sell turnover
NETDRAGON WEBS (777.HK): -17.0%, 0.1% of total short sell turnover

External Market Conditions

Greece: No new bailout plan proposed, deepening market concerns of Eurozone withdrawal.
US Market: Market prediction of postponed Fed rate hike led to a turnaround, with Dow up 93 pts, S&P 500 up 12 pts, NASDAQ up 5 pts.
HSI Futures: Down 775 pts to 24,250 in night session, with a discount of 725 pts.
ADR Impact: ADRs fell, effectively putting HSI down 282 pts, closing at 24,692.
Interest Rates:
- US 2-year Treasury yield: 0.5812% (-10.70 bps)
- US 10-year Treasury yield: 2.2457% (-17.62 bps)
- US 30-year Treasury yield: 3.0270% (-17.45 bps)
- HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2390% (-0.10 bps)
- HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3874% (-0.07 bps)
Exchange Rates:
- USD Dollar Index: 96.7260 (+0.4%)
- USD/HKD: 7.7550 (0.0%)
- EUR/USD: 1.1000 (-0.5%)
- USD/JPY: 122.41 (+0.6%)
- GBP/USD: 1.5453 (-1.1%)
- USD/CHF: 0.9469 (+0.1%)
- AUD/USD: 0.7442 (-2.7%)
- NZD/USD: 0.6661 (-1.1%)
- USD/CAD: 1.2725 (-1.1%)
- USD/CNY: 6.2115 (-0.2%)
- USD/CNH: 6.2237 (-0.3%)
Precious Metals and Commodities:
- CRB Index: 215.5 (-3.6%)
- Comex Gold: $1,154.30 (-1.5%)
- Comex Silver: $15.08 (-3.0%)
- Nymex WTI Crude: $52.80 (-11.2%)
- ICE Brent Crude: $57.25 (-7.7%)
- LME Copper: $5,339.50 (-7.4%)
- LME Aluminum: $1,666 (-1.5%)
- CBT Wheat: $584.00 (-5.0%)
- CBT Corn: $424.75 (+2.6%)
- CBT Soybean: $998.75 (-5.4%)

A-Share Premium to H-Share

Company	H-Share Code	H-Share Price (HK$)	A-Share Code	A-Share Price (RMB)	A-Share Premium to H-Share (%)
Sinopec Oilfield-H	1033	2.38	600871	9.33	389.4
LuoYang Glass-H	1108	3.10	600876	11.78	374.4
China Com Cons-H	1800	9.66	601800	14.92	92.8
ZheJiang Shiba-H	1057	15.38	600039	46.99	69.3
Sinopec Corp-H	386	6.38	600028	7.47	46.2
Datang Intl Po-H	991	3.42	601991	6.49	136.9
Bank of China-H	3988	4.66	601988	5.39	44.4
China Life-H	2628	30.60	601628	33.77	37.8
China Coal Ene-H	1898	3.90	601898	7.65	144.9
China Shipping-H	1919	3.81	601919	7.89	158.5
China Shipping D	1138	4.64	600026	8.55	130.1
China Vanke-H	2202	17.90	000002	14.54	1.4
Fuyao Glass In-H	3606	17.24	600660	13.72	-0.6

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

ETF Code	ETF Name	Price (HK$)	1D % Change	5D % Change
2822	CSOP FTSE CH-HKD	15.02	-0.53	0.40
2823	IShares FTSE A50	13.56	-1.17	0.30
2828	HS H-Share ETF	120.60	-3.52	-6.58
2800	Tracker Fund HK	25.55	-1.16	-3.95
3188	ChinaAMC 300-CNY	37.85	-7.23	-11.36
3147	CSOP SZSE ETF-HK	9.66	-14.51	-18.82
2840	SPDR GOLD SHARES	867.00	0.23	-1.14
2833	HSI ETF	37.05	-5.48	-3.52
2827	CSI 300 China	37.05	-5.48	-3.52

Summary of Key Points

Market Sentiment: Greece's lack of new bailout plans deepened market concerns, but the anticipated Fed rate hike postponement led to a market turnaround in the US, potentially easing sell-off pressure in Hong Kong.
Stock Performance: A-share market was affected by unwinding of equity bets, while some Hong Kong stocks like PetroChina showed potential for recovery due to improved earnings and reforms.
Valuation Insights: The HSI and HSCEI showed a discount in the night session, while the Shanghai Composite had a higher P/E ratio compared to its long-term average.
Sector Analysis: Telecoms and REITs were among the best performers, while sectors like Gaming and Logistics showed weakness.
ETF Activity: The top traded ETFs included gold-related and China-focused funds, with varying price movements and volume changes.
Short Selling: Certain stocks, like NETDRAGON WEBS and FORGAME HOLDINGS, had significant short-selling activity.
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: US interest rates declined, while the HK HIBOR remained stable, and the USD/CNY pair showed a slight decrease.