20160303-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

报告摘要

Market Summary: Hong Kong and Global Markets (2 Mar 2016)

Core Content Overview

This summary covers key market trends, stock picks, sector performance, valuation metrics, and external market conditions in Hong Kong and global markets. It also includes data on interest rates, exchange rates, precious metals, commodities, and A-share premium to H-share.

Market Highlights

Federal Reserve Beige Book

The Fed's latest Beige Book indicated varied economic activity across districts, suggesting a low probability of a rate hike in March (~10%).
This is positive for stock markets.

Hong Kong Market

HSI closed at 20,003, up 3.1%.
HSCEI closed at 8,374, up 3.8%.
Main Board turnover increased to HK$92.7bn.
The China and Hong Kong stock markets rose due to the reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in China.
Resource and property stocks were in demand, with notable gains.

Key Performers

China Resources Land (1109.HK): +6.6%
Anhui Conch Cement (914.HK): +10.6%
HKEX (388.HK): +3.5% after reporting strong financial results.

Today's Top Picks

Sino-Ocean Land (3377.HK)

Target Price: HK$4.35
Reason: RSI above 50 and upward momentum.
Purchase Price: Current price
Stop-loss Price: HK$3.70

Leyou Tech H (1089.HK)

Target Price: HK$1.05
Reason: Share price rose above 10-day MA, may test upper channel of its downward trend.
Purchase Price: Current price
Stop-loss Price: HK$0.90

Sector Performance

Top Performing Sectors (1D % Change)

Coal: 7.1%
Chinese Property: 6.4%
Building Materials: 6.3%
Agriculture: 5.6%
Airline: 5.4%
Gaming: 5.0%
Brokerages: 4.8%
Steel: 4.7%
Chinese Insurers: 4.6%
IPP: 4.4%
Environmental and New Energy: 4.3%
Telecoms Equipment: 4.3%
Marine: 4.2%
Automobile: 4.0%
Consumer Staples: 3.7%

Top Performing Stocks in Sectors

Coal: China Shenhua (1088), Yanzhou Coal (1171), China Coal (1898)
Chinese Property: COLI (688), China Res Land (1109), Sunac (1918), Country Garden (2007), Evergrande (3333)
Building Materials: Shanshui Cement (691), Anhui Conch (914), China Res Cement (1313), BBMG (2009), CNBM (3323)

Forward P/E and Valuations of Major Indices

Index	FY16E P/E	Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E	Deviation from Avg. (%)	FY1 EPS Growth (%)	FY2 EPS Growth (%)
Hang Seng Index	10.4	11.0	-4.8	-13.9	11.5
HSCEI	6.6	7.9	-16.7	-5.6	-9.7
Shanghai Comp	11.9	10.7	+10.9	+26.1	+12.4
S&P 500	16.6	15.3	+8.3	+8.2	+13.2

Market Data

Best and Worst Performers (Previous Day)

Best Performers

CRTG: +32.9%
China Resources (291.HK): +18.2%
Sino-Ocean Land (3377.HK): +15.3%
China Res Cement (1313.HK): +13.4%
GEMDALE PROPERTY (535.HK): +13.3%

Worst Performers

G-Resources Group (1051.HK): -6.6%
Boer Power Holding (1685.HK): -4.3%
Zhaojin Mining-H (1818.HK): -3.2%
PW Medtech Group (1358.HK): -3.1%
PCCW Ltd (8.HK): -2.9%

External Market Conditions

Interest Rates

U.S. 2-year Treasury Yield: 0.8451% (up 11.48 bps in 5D)
U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield: 1.8389% (up 12.49 bps in 5D)
U.S. 30-year Treasury Yield: 2.7072% (up 9.20 bps in 5D)
HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2464% (down 4.68 bps in 5D)
HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.5789% (down 2.66 bps in 5D)

Exchange Rates

USD/HKD: 7.7744 (up 0.0% in 5D)
EUR/USD: 1.0870 (down 1.3% in 5D)
USD/JPY: 114.28 (down 0.5% in 5D)
GBP/USD: 1.3960 (up 0.8% in 5D)
USD/CNY: 6.5518 (down 0.1% in 5D)

Precious Metals and Commodities

Crude Oil (NYMEX WTI): $34.65 (up 4.8% in 5D)
Gold (Comex): $1,228.1 (down 0.9% in 5D)
Silver (Comex): $14.815 (down 1.4% in 5D)
Copper (LME): $4,790 (up 3.2% in 5D)
Aluminum (LME): $1,589 (up 1.4% in 5D)

A-share Premium to H-share

H-share Code	H-share Price (HK$)	A-share Price (RMB)	A-share Premium (%)
Anhui Conch (914.HK)	18.34	15.96	3.3
China Resources (291.HK)	15.10	10.40	45.6
China Vanke (2202.HK)	18.76	24.43	54.6
Ping An (2318.HK)	34.50	30.18	3.9
China Life (2628.HK)	17.38	15.88	28.3
China Shenhua (1088.HK)	12.04	14.32	41.2
Sinopec (386.HK)	4.75	4.55	13.7
China Shipping (1138.HK)	4.97	6.44	141.0
Bank of China (3988.HK)	3.07	3.26	26.1
CITIC Bank (998.HK)	4.53	5.62	27.8
China Petroleum (857.HK)	5.34	7.54	67.6
Sinopec Oilfield (2883.HK)	6.14	12.99	151.2
ZTE (763.HK)	13.92	15.02	28.1
Great Wall Motor (2333.HK)	5.91	8.55	71.8
China Resources Land (1109.HK)	15.10	10.40	45.6
China Res Cement (1313.HK)	2.29	4.16	115.2
China Cosco (1919.HK)	2.99	6.07	141.0
ANHUI CONCH-H (914.HK)	18.34	15.96	3.3
China Shenhua (1088.HK)	12.04	14.32	41.2
China Coal (1898.HK)	2.82	5.35	125.3