20150807-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_13页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets, including trends, top picks, sector performance, valuations, market data, and insights on short selling and ETF trading. It also covers recent corporate developments and external market conditions such as interest rates, exchange rates, and precious metals.

Main Indices and Performance

• Hang Seng Index (HSI):

  • Close: 24,375
  • Daily change: -0.6%
  • Year-to-Date (YTD) change: +3.3%
  • Support level: Around 24,100
  • Performance: Showed a rebound after an initial upward move, then weakened.

• HSCEI:

  • Close: 11,093
  • Daily change: -0.3%
  • YTD change: -7.4%
  • Performance: Rebounded from recent lows, indicating a potential recovery.

• Shanghai Composite:

  • Close: 3,662
  • Daily change: -0.9%
  • YTD change: +13.2%
  • Performance: Showed strong growth, with a significant 3M change of -17.2%.

• Nasdaq Composite:

  • Close: 5,056
  • Daily change: -1.6%
  • YTD change: +6.8%

Key Market Highlights

• CKH Holdings (1.HK) and VimpelCom: Agreed to merge their Italian telecommunications units, creating a leading wireless provider. The deal is valued at 21.8 billion euros, with synergy effects expected to save over 5 billion euros.
• SHK PPT (16.HK): Won a property development project at a high price of HKD 9.3 billion, making it the most expensive land in north-west New Territories. The project is expected to boost the value of surrounding properties and reduce selling pressure.

Sector Performance

• Top Performing Sectors:

  • Infrastructure: +3.1%
  • HK Telecoms: +2.1%
  • Sports accessories: +1.8%
  • Marine: +1.7%
  • Environmental and New Energy: +1.6%
  • Airline: +0.9%
  • Building Materials: +0.8%
  • Steel: +0.8%

• Major Stocks in Top Performing Sectors:

  • Infrastructure: China Railway (390), China Railway Construction (1186), CSR Corp (1766), China Communications Construction (1800), China Machinery Engineering (1829)
  • HK Telecoms: HutchTel HK (215), Smartone (315), HKT-SS (6823)
  • Sports accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xtep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
  • Marine: OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), Pacific Basin (2343), CSCL (2866)
  • Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816)
  • Airline: Cathay Pacific (293), China East Air (670), Air China (753), China South Air (1055)
  • Building Materials: Shanshui Cement (691), Anhui Conch (914), China Res Cement (1313), BBMG (2009), CNBM (3323)
  • Steel: Angang Steel (347), Maanshan Iron (323), Shougang Res (639)
  • Automobile: Geely Auto (175), Dongfeng Motor (489), BRILLIANCE CHI (1114), BYD Co. (1211), Great Wall Motor (2333)
  • Other Metals: Jiangxi Copper (358), CMOC (3993), Zhaojin Mining (1818), Zijin Mining (2899)
  • Gaming: Galaxy Ent. (27), SJM Hldg (880), Wynn Macau (1128), Sands China (1928), MGM China (2282)
  • HK Consumer Group: Sa Sa Int'l (178), Cafe De Coral (341), Luk Fook (590), Bonjour (653), I.T (999)
  • Chinese Banks: CCB (939), ABC (1288), ICBC (1398), BankComm (3328), BOC (3988)
  • Gas: China Gas (384), Beijing Enterprises (392), ENN Energy (2688), CIMC Enric (3899), China Res Gas (1193)
  • Toll Road: Sichuan Express (107), Jiangsu Express (177), Shenzhen Express (548), Zhejiang Express (576), Anhui Expressway (995)

Market Data

Best and Worst Performers

• Best Performers:

  • China Cosco HO-H (1919.HK): +7.9%
  • Goldin Property (283.HK): +7.3%
  • Goldin Financial (530.HK): +6.4%
  • BYD Co. Ltd-H (1211.HK): +5.4%
  • Ozner Water (2014.HK): +5.3%

• Worst Performers:

  • Wumart-H (1025.HK): -7.4%
  • Ju Teng Intl Hdg (3336.HK): -7.4%
  • SFCE (1165.HK): -5.5%
  • Huadian Power-H (1071.HK): -5.2%
  • Landing Internat (582.HK): -5.5%

HSCI Volume Filter

• MACAU LEGEND (1680.HK): 217.1% increase in volume
• Huadian Power-H (1071.HK): 214.9% increase in volume
• Goldin Financial (530.HK): 197.3% increase in volume
• Goldin Property (283.HK): 174.1% increase in volume
• UNI-PRESIDENT CH (1812.HK): 171.5% increase in volume
• ANTA SPORTS PROD (2020.HK): 138.0% increase in volume
• ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H (1057.HK): 213.5% increase in volume
• AIR CHINA LTD-H (753.HK): 62.3% increase in volume
• CHINA COAL ENE-H (1898.HK): 165.6% increase in volume
• CHINA SHIPPING D (1138.HK): 157.6% increase in volume

Most Short Sold Stocks

• GIORDANO INTL (709.HK): 1.4% of total short sell turnover
• TIAN LUN GAS (1600.HK): 0.0% of total short sell turnover
• SUNNY OPTICAL (2382.HK): 64.4% of own turnover
• GEELY AUTOMOBILE (175.HK): 57.3% of own turnover
• ASM PACIFIC (522.HK): 54.1% of own turnover
• SFCE (1165.HK): 138.0% increase in volume
• JU TENG INTL HDG (3336.HK): 138.0% increase in volume
• LANDING INTERNAT (582.HK): 171.5% increase in volume
• WUMART-H (1025.HK): 144.9% increase in volume
• HISENSE KELON -H (921.HK): 141.9% increase in volume
• CHINA LIFE-H (2628.HK): 23.0% increase in volume
• ZIJIN MINING-H (2899.HK): 139.3% increase in volume
• CHINA RAIL GR-H (390.HK): 126.7% increase in volume
• JIANGSU EXPRESS-H (177.HK): 144.9% increase in volume
• BBMG CORP-H (2009.HK): 94.1% increase in volume
• CHINA VANKE-H (2202.HK): -3.5% change in FY2 P/E
• CHINA PACIFIC-H (2601.HK): -5.0% change in FY2 P/E
• PING AN-H (2318.HK): -5.2% change in FY2 P/E

BYD (1211.HK)

• Last Close: HK$38.80

• Entry: HK$37.20

• Target: HK$49.60

• Stop-loss: HK$32.00

• YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: +27.8% / +0.3% / -17.2% / -25.2%

• Market Cap: HK$162.92bn

• 3M Average Daily Volume: 8.997mn shares

• FY1 Forward P/E: 39.6X

• Performance: BYD is expected to benefit from the growth of the new energy vehicle sector. It has plans to launch several new models, which could drive revenue growth.

• Profit Outlook: Q1 profit surged 9x to RMB120m, and the company expects Q2 profit to be between RMB280m and RMB360m, representing a 133% to 200% increase.

• Capital Raising: BYD raised RMB15bn through a non-public offering to fund battery production capacity expansion.

• Broker Estimate: Bloomberg predicts profits of RMB2.066bn and RMB2.629bn for 2015 and 2016, with forward P/Es of 39.6x and 31.8x, respectively.

Today's Top Picks

• FINSOFT FIN (8018):

  • Last Trading Day Closing Price: HK$0.41
  • Purchase Price: Current price
  • Target Price: HK$0.6
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$0.372
  • Reason: Nearly 90% share price correction from previous high, with potential for a small bet due to proposed acquisition.

• CH DYNAMICS (476):

  • Last Trading Day Closing Price: HK$0.455
  • Purchase Price: Current price
  • Target Price: HK$0.545
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$0.43
  • Reason: Developing new super battery with an Israeli company, with increased turnover.

External Market Conditions

• U.S. Stocks: Fell due to disappointing media results. Dow closed at 17,419, down 120 points. S&P500 closed at 2,083, down 16 points. Nasdaq Composite closed at 5,056, down 83 points.
• ADR Impact: ADRs fell, effectively putting HSI down 124 points.
• Oil Prices: Dropped due to oversupply fears, with New York crude oil futures at US$44.66/bbl.
• Gold Prices: Rose as the U.S. dollar weakened, with New York gold futures at US$1,090.1/oz.
• Interest Rates:
  • U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.7085%
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 2.2268%
  • HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2401%
  • HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3892%
• Exchange Rates:
  • USD Dollar Index: 97.8420
  • USD/HKD: 7.7512
  • EUR/USD: 1.0926
  • USD/JPY: 124.75
  • GBP/USD: 1.5513
  • USD/CHF: 0.9810
  • USD/CNY: 6.2097
  • USD/CNH: 6.2180
• Precious Metals and Commodities:
  • CRB Index: 198.5
  • Comex Gold: US$1,088.2/oz
  • Comex Silver: US$14.625/oz
  • Nymex WTI Crude: US$44.79/bbl
  • ICE Brent Crude: US$49.65/bbl
  • LME Copper: HK$5185/ton
  • LME Aluminum: HK$1592.5/ton
  • CBT Wheat: HK$507.75/ton
  • CBT Corn: HK$369.50/ton
  • CBT Soybean: HK$956.25/ton

A-share Premium to H-share

• LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108): A-share premium to H-share is 475.2%
• SINOPEC OILFIE-H (1033): A-share premium to H-share is 337.9%
• SHANDONG MOLON-H (568): A-share premium to H-share is 331.3%
• ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H (1057): A-share premium to H-share is 322.2%
• CHINA COSCO HO-H (1919): A-share premium to H-share is 203.3%
• MAANSHAN IRON-H (323): A-share premium to H-share is 177.5%
• CHINA RAIL CN-H (1186): A-share premium to H-share is 87.9%
• BYD CO LTD-H (1211): A-share premium to H-share is 110.4%
• CHINA EAST AIR-H (670): A-share premium to H-share is 110.2%
• CHINA LIFE-H (2628): A-share premium to H-share is 23.0%
• ICBC-H (1398): A-share premium to H-share is 12.4%
• CHINA VANKE-H (2202): A-share premium to H-share is -3.5%
• CHINA PACIFIC-H (2601): A-share premium to H-share is -5.0%
• PING AN-H (2318): A-share premium to H-share is -5.2%

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

• 2822 - CSOP FTSE CH-HKD: Price: HK$13.82, 1D change: 0.00%, 5D change: 0.58%
• 2823 - IShares FTSE A50: Price: HK$12.28, 1D change: 0.00%, 5D change: 1.99%
• 2800 - Tracker Fund HK: Price: HK$25.00, 1D change: -0.40%, 5D change: -0.40%
• 2828 - HS H-share ETF-H: Price: HK$113.20, 1D change: -0.40%