20150730-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets, focusing on the Hang Seng Index (HSI), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI), and other key indices. It includes stock highlights, sector performance, valuations, market data, and insights into A-share vs. H-share premiums. The report also covers specific stocks with their price targets, stop-loss levels, and performance metrics.

Main Points and Key Information

Market Trends and Indices Performance

HSI and HSCEI showed mixed performance with HSI slightly rising and HSCEI in a lower trading range.
U.S. stocks rose as the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, with the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all showing positive movements.
ADR (American Depositary Receipts) prices increased, contributing to the rise in HSI.
Oil prices increased due to a decrease in U.S. crude inventory, while gold prices fell.
Hong Kong-listed oil and petrochemical stocks benefited from the rebound in oil prices, with notable gains in PetroChina and Kunlun Energy.
The Baltic Dry Index rebounded above 1,000, indicating improved shipping industry prospects, which positively affected stocks like CSCL and Pacific Basin Shipping.

Stock in Focus: Anta Sports (2020.HK)

Last Close: HK$19.50
Entry: HK$17.50
Target: HK$22.00
Stop-loss: HK$16.50
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: +43.1% / +10.5% / +14.3% / +54.3%
Market Cap: HK$48.72bn
3M Average Daily Volume: 5.71mn shares
FY1 Forward P/E: 19.6X

Reason for Focus:

The pro-sports industry national policy is expected to boost Anta Sports' business growth.
Anta Sports' orders for Q4 2015 showed low double-digit growth, and same-store sales for Q1 2015 increased by high double-digit YoY.
The company's revenue and gross margin improved significantly in 2014, with a 22.5% revenue growth and a 3.4% increase in gross margin.
The stock has strong momentum and is trading above its 250-day moving average, making it a potential buy at HK$17.50 with a target of HK$22.00.

Today's Top Picks

Global Bio-Chem (2727)
- Last Close: HK$4.94
- Purchase Price: Current price
- Target Price: HK$5.23
- Stop-loss Price: HK$4.70
- Reason: Restructuring and reduced negative impact from the printing machine business.
Vitop Bioenergy (1178)
- Last Close: HK$0.244
- Purchase Price: Current price
- Target Price: HK$0.270
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.229
- Reason: Reset right issue terms and a bullish share price trend.

Sector Performance Overview

Top Performing Sectors (1D % change):
- Sports accessories: 4.6%
- Marine: 2.9%
- Durable Consumables: 2.5%
- Agriculture: 2.5%
- Building Materials: 2.5%
- Oil-related: 2.5%
- Other Metals: 2.4%
- Environmental and New Energy: 2.3%
- Brokerages: 2.3%
- Gaming: 2.1%
- Telecoms Equipment: 2.1%
- Logistics: 2.1%
Major Stocks in Top Performing Sectors:
- Sports accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xtep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
- Marine: OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), Pacific Basin (2343), CSCL (2866)
- Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)
- Agriculture: First Tractor (38), Sinofert (297), Ko Yo Group (827), National Agri (1236), China Bluechem (3983)
- Building Materials: Shanshui Cement (691), Anhui Conch (914), China Res Cement (1313), BBMG (2009), CNBM (3323)
- Oil-related: Sinopec (386), PetroChina (857), CNOOC (883), Hilong Hldg. (1623), China Oilfield Services (2883)
- Other Metals: Jiangxi Copper (358), CMOC (3993), Zhaojin Mining (1818), Zijin Mining (2899)
- Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816)
- Brokerages: First Shanghai (227), Central China Sec. (1375), CITIC Sec. (6030), Haitong Sec. (6837), China Galaxy Sec. (6881)
- Gaming: Galaxy Ent. (27), SJM Hldg (880), Wynn Macau (1128), Sands China (1928), MGM China (2282)
- Telecoms Equipment: China Com Service (552), ZTE (763), Trigiant (1300), Comba (2342)
- Logistics: Kerry Log Net (636), SITC (1308)
- Coal: China Shenhua (1088), Yanzhou Coal (1171), China Coal (1898)
- Infrastructure: China Railway (390), China Railway Cons. (1186), CSR Corp. (1766), China Comm. Cons. (1800), China Machinery Eng. (1829)
- Toll Road: Sichuan Express (107), Jiangsu Express (177), Shenzhen Express (548), Zhejiang Express (576), Anhui Expressway (995)

Forward P/E and Valuations

HSI: FY15E P/E 11.9X, Long-term avg. fwd. P/E 11.4X, Deviation from avg. +4.2%, FY1 EPS growth -11.3%, FY2 EPS growth 10.1%
HSCEI: FY15E P/E 8.1X, Long-term avg. fwd. P/E 8.9X, Deviation from avg. -9.1%, FY1 EPS growth 0.6%, FY2 EPS growth 9.9%
Shanghai Comp: FY15E P/E 15.6X, Long-term avg. fwd. P/E 11.1X, Deviation from avg. +41.0%, FY1 EPS growth 23.4%, FY2 EPS growth 13.6%
S&P 500: FY15E P/E 17.8X, Long-term avg. fwd. P/E 14.4X, Deviation from avg. +23.9%, FY1 EPS growth 3.7%, FY2 EPS growth 11.4%

Market Data

Best and Worst Performers (Previous Day)

Best Performers:
- XINYI SOLAR HLDS (968.HK): +8.8%
- PETRO-KING (2178.HK): +8.1%
- BLOOMAGE BIOTE (963.HK): +7.5%
- CHINA SINGYES SO (750.HK): +7.2%
- MMG (1208.HK): +10.3%
Worst Performers:
- BYD ELECTRONIC (285.HK): -9.1%
- AIR CHINA LTD-H (753.HK): -7.4%
- GREAT WALL MOT-H (2333.HK): -5.6%
- VINDA INTL HLDGS (3331.HK): -4.7%
- TIBET 5100 WATER (1115.HK): -3.7%

HSCI Volume Filter

AIR CHINA LTD-H (753.HK): 506.5% increase in volume
BYD ELECTRONIC (285.HK): 349.9% increase in volume
MACAU LEGEND (1680.HK): 402.0% increase in volume
PHOENIX SATELLIT (2008.HK): 178.9% increase in volume
ASM PACIFIC (522.HK): 157.7% increase in volume

Most Short Sold Stocks

SUNNY OPTICAL (2382.HK): 1.1% of total shortsell turnover
PACIFIC BASIN (2343.HK): 0.1% of total shortsell turnover
LONGFOR PPT (960.HK): 0.1% of total shortsell turnover
PHOENIX SATELLIT (2008.HK): 178.9% increase in volume
ASM PACIFIC (522.HK): 157.7% increase in volume
GOLDIN FINANCIAL (530.HK): 15.0% increase in volume
TCL COMM TECH HL (2618.HK): 5.1% increase in volume
VINDA INTL HLDGS (3331.HK): 12.2% increase in volume
TIBET 5100 WATER (1115.HK): 144.1% increase in volume

External Market Conditions

Interest Rates:
- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.7156%, up 2.14 bps
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 2.3022%, up 3.45 bps
- U.S. 30-year Treasury yield: 3.0094%, up 4.21 bps
- HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2404%, up 0.07 bps
- HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3885%, up 0.00 bps
- SH 1-month HIBOR: 3.0130%, up 0.10 bps
- SH 3-month HIBOR: 3.1635%, up 0.00 bps
Exchange Rates:
- USD Dollar Index: 97.2600, up 0.1%
- USD/HKD: 7.7509, up 0.0%
- EUR/USD: 1.0965, down 0.2%
- USD/JPY: 124.08, down 0.1%
- GBP/USD: 1.5597, up 0.5%
- USD/CHF: 0.9685, down 0.9%
- AUD/USD: 0.7297, down 0.8%
- NZD/USD: 0.6638, down 0.5%
- USD/CAD: 1.2956, up 0.6%
- USD/CNY: 6.2100, up 0.1%
- USD/CNH: 6.2191, down 0.1%
Precious Metals and Commodities:
- CRB Index: 205.5, down 1.8%
- Comex Gold: $1,095.8/oz, down 0.2%
- Comex Silver: $14.805/oz, down 0.7%
- Nymex WTI Crude: $48.86/bbl, up 0.8%
- ICE Brent Crude: $53.6/bbl, down 3.0%
- LME Copper: $5328/ton, down 0.6%
- LME Aluminum: $1662.5/ton, up 0.2%
- CBT Wheat: $496.00/bushel, down 4.9%
- CBT Corn: $368.00/bushel, down 8.7%
- CBT Soybean: $984.50/bushel, down 2.5%