20150722-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equity markets, along with key financial indicators and market data. It highlights the performance of major indices, stock trends, sector analysis, and specific investment opportunities.

Main Indices Performance

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 25,536, up 0.5% (daily change), up 8.2% year-to-date (YTD).
HSCEI: Closed at 11,872, up 0.8% (daily change), down 0.9% YTD.
Shanghai Composite: Closed at 4,018, up 0.6% (daily change), up 24.2% YTD.
Shenzhen Composite: Closed at 2,265, up 1.6% (daily change), up 60.1% YTD.
DJIA: Closed at 17,919, down 1.0% (daily change), up 0.5% YTD.
S&P 500: Closed at 2,119, down 0.4% (daily change), up 2.9% YTD.
Nasdaq Composite: Closed at 5,208, down 0.2% (daily change), up 10.0% YTD.
FTSE 100: Closed at 6,769, down 0.3% (daily change), up 3.1% YTD.
DAX: Closed at 11,605, down 1.1% (daily change), up 18.3% YTD.
CAC 40: Closed at 5,107, down 0.7% (daily change), up 19.5% YTD.
Nikkei 225: Closed at 20,661, down 0.9% (daily change), up 18.4% YTD.
Taiwan Weighted: Closed at 9,006, up 0.3% (daily change), down 3.2% YTD.

Hong Kong Market Turnover

HSI: Turnover at HK$20.0bn, up 5.20% (daily change).
HSCCI: Turnover at HK$6.1bn, up 40.21% (daily change).
HSCEI: Turnover at HK$14.0bn, up 0.32% (daily change).
Main Board: Turnover at HK$80.8bn, down 4.82% (daily change).

External Market Conditions

U.S. tech companies such as Yahoo and Microsoft reported disappointing earnings, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 181 points, closing at 17,919.
S&P 500: Down 9 points, closing at 2,119.
NASDAQ Composite: Down 10 points, closing at 5,208.
ADR Impact: ADRs fell, effectively putting HSI down 121 points.
Oil Prices: New York crude oil futures closed at US$50.36/bbl, up US$0.21.
Gold Prices: Declined due to market speculation of potential U.S. rate hikes in September, closing at US$1,103.5/oz.

Yesterday's Hong Kong Equities

Shanghai Composite broke above 4,000, showing strong momentum.
HSI and HSCEI both rose, with HSI finishing at 25,536 (+131 points) and HSCEI at 11,871 (+97 points).
Total Market Turnover: Dropped to HK$80.8bn.
Telecom Stocks: Notable gains due to strong customer momentum.
- China Mobile (941.HK): Up 4%.
- China Unicom (762.HK): Up 5.9%.
Infrastructure Stocks: Rose due to anticipated railway investments in H2.
- China Railway Construction (1186.HK): Up 6%.
- China Railway (390.HK): Up 4.9%.

Stock in Focus: Guangdong Inv (270.HK)

Price: HK$10.84.
Entry: HK$10.80.
Target: HK$12.50.
Stop-loss: HK$9.62.
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: +7.3% / +0.0% / -2.3% / +16.7%.
Market Cap: HK$67.8bn.
3M Avg. Daily Volume: 9.75mn shares.
FY1 Forward P/E: 16.5X.
Reason for Buy: Expected profit growth from active acquisition of sewage treatment businesses.
Water Supply Business: Solid cash flow with near 6.3% compound growth in charges to Hong Kong.
Sewage Treatment Plants: Acquired in 2014, combined daily capacity of 280,000 tons, revenue of HK$68.08m in Q1 2015.
Financial Stability: Strong cash balance of about HK$7bn at year end 2014.

Today's Top Picks

China Strategic (235.HK):
- Price: HK$0.385.
- Purchase Price: Current price.
- Target Price: HK$0.430.
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.355.
- Reason: Expected growth from purchasing Hualian Electric Commerce Group Co., Ltd.
China Jinhai (139.HK):
- Price: HK$1.08.
- Purchase Price: Current price.
- Target Price: HK$1.25.
- Stop-loss Price: HK$1.00.
- Reason: Share price broke 50-day MA with increased turnover.

Sector Performance

Best Performing Sectors (Daily % Change)

Chinese Telecoms: 5.0%
Toll Road: 3.7%
Infrastructure: 2.6%
HK Telecoms: 2.2%
Other Metals: 2.1%
Chinese Insurers: 2.0%
IPP: 1.8%
Airline: 1.6%
Sports Accessories: 1.5%
Telecoms Equipment: 1.1%
Medical: 1.1%
Brokerages: 1.0%
Consumer Staples: 0.6%
Local Banks: 0.4%

Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors

Chinese Telecoms: China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941)
Toll Road: Sichuan Express (107), Jiangsu Express (177), Shenzhen Express (548), Zhejiang Express (576), Anhui Expressway (995)
Infrastructure: China Railway (390), China Railway Cons. (1186), CSR Corp. (1766), China Comm. Cons. (1800), China Machinery Eng. (1829)
HK Telecoms: HutchTel HK (215), Smartone (315), HKT-SS (6823)
Other Metals: Jiangxi Copper (358), CMOC (3993), Zhaojin Mining (1818), Zijin Mining (2899)
Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
IPP: China Res Power (836), Huaneng Power Int'l (902), Datang Int'l Power (991), Huadian Power Int'l (1071), China Power Int'l (2380)
Airline: Cathay Pacific (293), China East Air (670), Air China (753), China South Air (1055)
Sports Accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xtep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
Telecoms Equipment: China Com Service (552), ZTE (763), Trigiant (1300), Comba (2342)
Medical: Trad Chi Med (570), Sinopharm (1099), Sino Biopharm (1177), Fosun Pharma (2196), SH Pharma (2607)
Brokerages: First Shanghai (227), Central China Sec. (1375), CITIC Sec. (6030), Haitong Sec. (6837), China Galaxy Sec. (6881)
Heavy Machinery: Sany Int'l (631), Zoomlion (1157), Lonking (3339), Sinotruk (3808)
Consumer Staples: Want Want (151), Uni-President (220), Tingyi (322), Hengan Int'l (1044), Sun Art Retail (6808)
Local Banks: Hang Seng Bank (11), BEA (23), Chong Hing Bank (1111), BOCHK (2388), Dah Sing Banking (2356)

Forward P/E and Valuations

HSI: FY15E P/E at 12.3, long-term average at 11.4, deviation +7.5%, FY1 EPS growth -14.1%, FY2 EPS growth +10.0%.
HSCEI: FY15E P/E at 8.5, long-term average at 8.9, deviation -4.3%, FY1 EPS growth +0.6%, FY2 EPS growth +10.0%.
Shanghai Composite: FY15E P/E at 16.6, long-term average at 11.1, deviation +50.0%, FY1 EPS growth +23.0%, FY2 EPS growth +13.4%.
S&P 500: FY15E P/E at 17.9, long-term average at 14.4, deviation +24.5%, FY1 EPS growth +4.5%, FY2 EPS growth +11.8%.

Market Data

Best and Worst Performers

Best Performers

LANDING INTERNAT (582.HK): Up 15.1% (1D), -37.3% (5D), -13.4% (1M), -65.8% (YTD)
MIE HOLDINGS COR (1555.HK): Up 7.1% (1D), 15.4% (5D), -9.1% (1M), 46.3% (YTD)
SHANGHAI PHARM-H (2607.HK): Up 6.5% (1D), 7.0% (5D), -7.2% (1M), 18.3% (YTD)
CHINA RAIL CN-H (1186.HK): Up 6.1% (1D), 8.6% (5D), -3.4% (1M), 20.2% (YTD)
CHINA UNICOM (762.HK): Up 5.9% (1D), 3.0% (5D), -4.9% (1M), 11.2% (YTD)

Worst Performers

HENGDELI (3389.HK): Down -6.4% (1D), -7.9% (5D), -23.0% (1M), -19.3% (YTD)
CHINA PRECIOUS M (1194.HK): Down -5.7% (1D), -2.0% (5D), -28.6% (1M), -20.6% (YTD)
G-RESOURCES GROU (1051.HK): Down -5.3% (1D), -9.6% (5D), -16.9% (1M), 17.4% (YTD)
CHINA PUBLIC PRO (1094.HK): Down -5.0% (1D), -7.4% (5D), -42.7% (1M), 10.5% (YTD)
OZNER WATER (2014.HK): Down -5.0% (1D), -12.9% (5D), -16.1% (1M), -22.8% (YTD)

HSCI Volume Filter

LANDING INTERNAT (582.HK): Avg. vol. 146.4m, Prev. vol. 1141.7m, % increase 679.6%
TOWNGAS CHINA (1083.HK): Avg. vol. 3.2m, Prev. vol. 12.3m, % increase 280.3%
HENGDELI (3389.HK): Avg. vol. 9.5m, Prev. vol. 29.6m, % increase 213.5%
BAIYUNSHAN PH-H (874.HK): Avg. vol. 2.5m, Prev. vol. 7.2m, % increase 185.0%
SHENZHOU INTL GP (2313.HK): Avg. vol. 2.4m, Prev. vol. 4.8m, % increase 4.8%
VINDA INTL HLDGS (3331.HK): Avg. vol. 1.1m, Prev. vol. 2.0m, % increase 2.0%
YINGDE GASES GRP (2168.HK): Avg. vol. 3.5m, Prev. vol. 5.9m, % increase 5.9%
CHINA ZHENGTONG (1728.HK): Avg. vol. 8.2m, Prev. vol. 14.1m, % increase 14.1%
XINYI GLASS (868.HK): Avg. vol. 9.0m, Prev. vol. 15.3m, % increase 15.3%
MICROPORT SCIENT (853.HK): Avg. vol. 1.8m, Prev. vol. 2.8m, % increase 2.8%

Most Short Sold Stocks

TSINGTAO BREW-H (168.HK): Down -0.8% (1D), shortsell turnover 43.8m, % of total 0.6%, % of own turnover 62.4%, FY1 P/E N/A.
TCL COMM TECH HL (2618.HK): Down -0.6% (1D), shortsell turnover 2.4m, % of total 0.0%, % of own turnover 62.0%, FY1 P/E 6.2.
LI NING CO LTD (2331.HK): Up 1.5% (1D), shortsell turnover 11.3m, % of total 0.2%, % of own turnover 61.5%, FY1 P/E 299.9.
MINTH GROUP LTD (425.HK): Up 1.1% (1D), shortsell turnover 9.4m, % of total 0.1%, % of own turnover 57.9%, FY1 P/E 11.2.
ANGANG STEEL-H (347.HK): Down -1.8% (1D), shortsell turnover 10.3m, % of total 0.1%, % of own turnover 57.2%, FY1 P/E 42.0.

Interest Rates

U.S. 2-year Treasury Yield: 0.6818%, up 5.68 bps (5D), up 2.43 bps (1M), up 1.73 bps (YTD), up 21.02% (y-y).
U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield: 2.3325%, down 1.96 bps (5D), down 4.00 bps (1M), up 16.13 bps (YTD), down 12.76% (y-y).
U.S. 30-year Treasury Yield: 3.0657%, down 7.28 bps (5D), down 9.49 bps (1M), up 31.39 bps (YTD), down 18.41% (y-y).
HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2411%, up 0.38 bps (5D), up 0.34 bps (1M), up 0.59 bps (YTD), up 2.19% (y-y).
HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3885%, down 0.04 bps (5D), up 0.18 bps (1M), up 0.71 bps (YTD), up 1.49% (y-y).
SH 1-month HIBOR: 3.0170%, down 3.60 bps (5D), down 34.20 bps (1M), down 257.10 bps (YTD), down 201.30% (y-y).
SH 3-month HIBOR: 3.1512%, down 0.38 bps (5D), up 4.62 bps (1M), down 198.39 bps (YTD), down 159.55% (y-y).

Exchange Rates

USD Dollar Index: 97.2730, up 0.1% (5D), up 3.1% (1M), up 7.8% (YTD), up 20.4% (y-y).
USD/HKD: 7.7510, up 0.0% (5D), up 0.0% (1M), up 0.1% (YTD), up 0.0% (y-y).
EUR/USD: 1.0948, up 0.0% (5D), down 3.5% (1M), down 9.5% (YTD), down 18.7% (y-y).
USD/JPY: 123.85, down 0.1% (5D), down 0.4% (1M), down 3.4% (YTD), down 18.1% (y-y).
GBP/USD: 1.5565, down 0.5% (5D), down 1.6% (1M), down 0.1% (YTD), down 8.8% (y-y).
USD/CHF: 0.9577, down 0.6% (5D), down 3.8% (1M), up 3.8% (YTD), down 5.8% (y-y).
AUD/USD: 0.7420, up 0.6% (5D), down 4.0% (1M), down 9.2% (YTD), down 21.0% (y-y).
NZD/USD: 0.6630, up 0.6% (5D), down 3.4% (1M), down 15.0% (YTD), down 23.5% (y-y).
USD/CAD: 1.2946, down 0.2% (5D), down 4.9% (1M), down 10.3% (YTD), down 17.1% (y-y).
USD/CNY: 6.2093, up 0.0% (5D), up 0.0% (1M), down 0.1% (YTD), down 0.1% (y-y).
USD/CNH: 6.2094, up 0.1% (5D), down 0.1% (1M), up 0.2% (YTD), down 0.1% (y-y).

Precious Metals and Commodities

CRB Index: 212.0, down 3.4% (5D), down 5.0% (1M), down 7.8% (YTD), down 28.7% (y-y).
Comex Gold: 1,099.0, down 4.2% (5D), down 7.2% (1M), down 7.2% (YTD), down 15.9% (y-y).
Comex Silver: 14.810, down 1.6% (5D), down 8.3% (1M), down 4.9% (YTD), down 29.5% (y-y).
Nymex WTI Crude: 50.59, down 1.6% (5D), down 15.2% (1M), down 5.0% (YTD), down 51.6% (y-y).
ICE Brent Crude: 56.84, down 0.4% (5D), down 10.3% (1M), down 0.9% (YTD), down 47.0% (y-y).
LME Copper: 5455, down 2.0% (5D), down 3.6% (1M), down 13.4% (YTD), down 22.3% (y-y).
LME Aluminum: 1661, down 2.7% (5D), down 1.8% (1M), down 10.3% (YTD), down 17.8% (y-y).
CBT Wheat: 523.00, down 7.7% (5D), up 4.3% (1M), down 11.3% (YTD), down 0.3% (y-y).
CBT Corn: 406.25, down 5.4% (5D), up 12.8% (1M), up 2.3% (YTD), up 12.8% (y-y).
CBT Soybean: 1022.25, down 0.3% (5D), up 3.3% (1M), up 0.3% (YTD), down 13.7% (y-y).

A-share Premium to H-share

SINOPEC OILFIE-H (1033): Price HK$2.59, A-share price RMB8.80, premium 324.1%.
ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H (1057): Price HK$15.38, A-share price RMB52.01, premium 322.3%.
CHINA COM CONS-H (1800): Price HK$11.04, A-share price RMB17.56, premium 98.6%.
LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108): Price HK$4.25, A-share price RMB14.27, premium 319.1%.
CMOC-H (3993): Price HK$5.78, A-share price RMB17.37, premium 275.1%.
ZOOMLION HEAVY-H (1157): Price HK$4.17, A-share price RMB6.54, premium 95.8%.
CHINA SHIPPING-H (2866): Price HK$2.62, A-share price RMB7.70, premium 266.9%.
TCL COMM TECH HL (2618.HK): Price HK$6.39, A-share price RMB11.68, premium 106.5%.
PING AN-H (2318): Price HK$97.30, A-share price RMB80.55, premium 3.3%.
CHINA EAST AIR-H (670): Price HK$7.06, A-share price RMB11.68, premium 106.5%.
CHINA RAIL CN-H (1186): Price HK$11.88, A-share price RMB19.89, premium 109.0%.
CHINA VANKE-H (2202): Price HK$19.18, A-share price RMB14.51, premium -5.6%.