20180705-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_6页_241kb

Market Summary

Core Market Indicators

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) showed mixed performance over the recent period. On 4 July, the HSI closed at 28,242, down 304 points from the previous day, with a market turnover of HK$89.1 billion. The HSCEI closed at 10,713, down 160 points on 4 July.

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

• Market Turnover (mn): 89,139 (4 Jul), 133,044 (3 Jul), 115,295 (29 Jun)
• Stock Advances: 497 (4 Jul), 379 (3 Jul), 1,255 (29 Jun)
• Stock Declines: 1,214 (4 Jul), 1,476 (3 Jul), 477 (29 Jun)
• HSI Change: -304 (4 Jul), -410 (3 Jul), +458 (29 Jun)
• HSI Turnover ($bn): 37.21 (4 Jul), 58.63 (3 Jul), 48.29 (29 Jun)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)

• HSCEI Change: -160 (4 Jul), -201 (3 Jul), +205 (29 Jun)
• HSCEI Turnover ($bn): 30.02 (4 Jul), 48.08 (3 Jul), 38.32 (29 Jun)

Technical Analysis

Hang Seng Index

• Technical Indicators: The HSI fell with a black candlestick, but closed above the support level at 28,000.
• MACD Histogram: Still in negative territory, but the downward spread has narrowed.
• Support Levels: 28,000 (first), 27,500 (second)
• Resistance Levels: 29,000 (first), 250 Day SMA (second)
• 14-day RSI: 31.5

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index

• Technical Indicators: The HSCEI is trading below the 10-day moving average but above the 50-day moving average.
• Support Levels: 10,500 (first), 10,000 (second)
• Resistance Levels: 11,000 (first), 11,500 (second)
• 14-day RSI: 25.4

Key Market Movements

• China-US Trade War: Continued to weigh on investor sentiment, with the Hong Kong stock market opening flat and then declining.
• Hang Seng Index: Down 303 points to 28,241.
• H-Share Index: Dropped 159 points to 10,712.
• Country Garden (2007): Down 5.8–7.1%, due to liquidity concerns.
• CLP (2) and HK Electrics (2638): Up 3.9–4.4%, following the approval of their development plans.
• RMB Exchange Rate: Stabilized after PBOC officials' speech, but A-share weakness affected Hong Kong market sentiment.
• Short-term Upside: Limited for Hong Kong stock market, with major support at 28,000.

China Mobile (0941)

• Current Price: HK$68.65
• Expected P/E (X): 10.3
• Dividend Yield (%): 4.7
• 52 Week High: HK$83.20
• 52 Week Low: HK$67.85
• 14-day RSI: 40.4
• Valuation Impact: RMB depreciation is expected to lower China Mobile's valuation.
• Recommendation: Accumulate during consolidation, as the stock is defensive with a strong balance sheet.

Link REIT (0823)

• Main Business: Retail and carpark operations in Hong Kong and China.
• Portfolio: 90% from Hong Kong, 70% from Hong Kong retail.
• Performance: Revenue and net property income increased by 8.3% and 9.6% YoY, respectively.
• Distribution per Unit: Rose 9.4% to HK$2.49.
• Net Asset Value per Unit: Increased 33% YoY to HK$83.06.
• Buyback Units: Up to 80 million more units are expected to be bought back, supporting the stock price.
• Recommendation: Accumulate when the price consolidates.
• Current P/B Ratio: 0.87X
• Projected P/E: 27

Vehicle Inventory Index

• Index Value (June): 59.2%, up 5.5 ppt MoM and 1.1 ppt YoY.
• Alert Level: Has stayed above for 6 consecutive months.
• Reasons for Increase: Consumers delaying purchases and tariff cuts on imported vehicles.
• New Tax Rate: Effective on 1 July, expected to reduce the inventory index.
• Zhongsheng (881): Distributes luxury brands like Benz, Audi, and Lexus. Sales volume increased YoY.
• Sales Growth: Benz (+16.7%), Audi (+27.5%), Lexus (+19.2%).
• Localisation: Benz and Audi have promoted localisation, limiting benefits from tariff cuts.
• Lexus: Relies entirely on imports, thus likely to benefit from tariff cuts.
• Distribution Network: 286 4S shops across 24 provinces.
• Recommendation: Accumulate by phase for long-term investment.

Stock Connect Statistics

SH-HK Connect

• Balance (RMB bn): 52.26 (SH), 53.04 (SZ), 84.40 (Combined Southbound)
• Balance as % of Quota: 100.5% (SH), 102.0% (SZ), 100.5% (Combined Southbound)

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (Southbound)

• GEELY AUTO: 175 (SH), 63,158,440 (HK), 396,662,109 (Combined)
• TENCENT: 700 (SH), 66,233,160 (HK), 336,415,420 (Combined)
• SUNAC: 1918 (SH), 74,693,800 (HK), 89,165,200 (Combined)
• CSPC PHARMA: 1093 (SH), 131,340,400 (HK), 31,012,900 (Combined)
• EVERGRANDE: 3333 (SH), 88,170,110 (HK), 69,993,570 (Combined)
• ICBC: 1398 (SH), 12,672,260 (HK), 132,416,870 (Combined)
• CCB: 939 (SH), 88,227,230 (HK), 50,774,070 (Combined)
• BANKCOMM: 3328 (SH), 2,953,340 (HK), 133,354,160 (Combined)
• FULLSHARE: 607 (SH), 41,042,525 (HK), 86,403,800 (Combined)
• CPIC: 2601 (SH), 7,400,760 (HK), 119,380,640 (Combined)

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (HK)

• TENCENT (700): -2.00%, HK$383.00, Turnover: 5,803.7M
• PING AN (2318): -1.27%, HK$69.85, Turnover: 3,861.8M
• CCB (939): -0.84%, HK$7.05, Turnover: 2,665.3M
• ICBC (1398): -0.17%, HK$5.76, Turnover: 2,121.6M
• BANK OF CHINA (3988): +0.52%, HK$3.86, Turnover: 1,782.5M
• EVERGRANDE (3333): 0.00%, HK$20.75, Turnover: 1,488.6M
• CSPC PHARMA (1093): -8.21%, HK$21.25, Turnover: 1,441.4M
• CHINA MOBILE (941): +0.51%, HK$68.65, Turnover: 1,432.9M
• HKEX (388): -1.54%, HK$229.60, Turnover: 1,362.1M
• GEELY AUTO (175): -3.90%, HK$19.20, Turnover: 1,238.2M

Top 10 Short Sell Stocks

• PING AN (02318.HK): Short Sell: 725.40M, Turnover: 3.86B, Short Sell Ratio: 18.78%
• EVERGRANDE (03333.HK): Short Sell: 684.45M, Turnover: 1.49B, Short Sell Ratio: 45.98%
• TRACKER FUND (02800.HK): Short Sell: 643.40M, Turnover: 1.47B, Short Sell Ratio: 43.77%
• COUNTRY GARDEN (02007.HK): Short Sell: 440.17M, Turnover: 1.20B, Short Sell Ratio: 36.69%
• TENCENT (00700.HK): Short Sell: 405.81M, Turnover: 5.80B, Short Sell Ratio: 6.99%
• ISHARES A50 (02823.HK): Short Sell: 368.07M, Turnover: 580.07M, Short Sell Ratio: 63.45%
• AIA (01299.HK): Short Sell: 272.56M, Turnover: 1.07B, Short Sell Ratio: 25.57%
• SUNNY OPTICAL (02382.HK): Short Sell: 262.11M, Turnover: 1.06B, Short Sell Ratio: 24.66%
• CSOP A50 ETF (02822.HK): Short Sell: 253.34M, Turnover: 452.43M, Short Sell Ratio: 56.00%
• HSCEI ETF (02828.HK): Short Sell: 242.74M, Turnover: 837.93M, Short Sell Ratio: 28.97%

Economic Calendars

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