20180713-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_6页_243kb
报告摘要
Market Summary
Core Market Indicators
Hang Seng Index (HSI)
- Market Turnover (mn): 91,183 (12 Jul), 95,934 (11 Jul), 98,659 (10 Jul)
- Stock Advances/Declines:
- 12 Jul: 1,183 Advances / 512 Declines
- 11 Jul: 382 Advances / 1,372 Declines
- 10 Jul: 825 Advances / 910 Declines
- HSI Closing Price: 28,480 (12 Jul), 28,311 (11 Jul), 28,682 (10 Jul)
- Change: +169 (12 Jul), -370 (11 Jul), -6 (10 Jul)
- HSI Turnover ($bn): 32.62 (12 Jul), 36.54 (11 Jul), 36.00 (10 Jul)
Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)
- HSCEI Closing Price: 10,752 (12 Jul), 10,658 (11 Jul), 10,825 (10 Jul)
- Change: +94 (12 Jul), -166 (11 Jul), +57 (10 Jul)
- HSCEI Turnover ($bn): 28.01 (12 Jul), 30.23 (11 Jul), 29.77 (10 Jul)
Technical Analysis
Hang Seng Index
- 10-day MA: 28,490
- 50-day MA: 30,087
- 250-day MA: 29,444
- 14-day RSI: 38.7
- Primary Resistance: 29,000
- Primary Support: 28,000 (first), 27,500 (second)
- Technical Trend: Improved, with MACD histogram returning to positive territory
Hang Seng China Enterprises Index
- 10-day MA: 10,776
- 50-day MA: 11,762
- 250-day MA: 11,745
- 14-day RSI: 34.1
- Primary Resistance: 11,126
- Primary Support: 10,500
Key Stock Performances
Hang Seng Index (Top Performers)
- Sunny Optical (2382): Rose by 6.7% due to 83% growth in June handset lens shipments
- ZTE (0763): Surged by 25.1% after the US Department of Commerce agreed to lift the ban
Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (Top Performers)
- Geely Auto (175): Issued a positive profit alert, expecting a 50% YoY increase in net profit for 1H18
- Citic Securities (6030): Interim profit rose 13.4% YoY to RMB5.59bn, with strong performance in investment banking and asset management
Stock Connect Statistics
SH Connect
- Balance (RMB bn): 50.30
- Balance as % of Quota Amount: 96.7%
SZ Connect
- Balance (RMB bn): 51.73
- Balance as % of Quota Amount: 99.5%
Combined Southbound
- Balance (RMB bn): 79.67
- Balance as % of Quota Amount: 94.8%
Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)
- ICBC (1398): Turnover RMB749.398bn
- TENCENT (700): Turnover RMB747.399bn
- CCB (939): Turnover RMB720.519bn
- BANK OF CHINA (3988): Turnover RMB377.173bn
- CM BANK (3968): Turnover RMB367.131bn
- SUNNY OPTICAL (2382): Turnover RMB322.647bn
- ABC (1288): Turnover RMB292.885bn
- GEELY AUTO (175): Turnover RMB232.813bn
- GAC GROUP (2238): Turnover RMB199.346bn
- CHINA SHENHUA (1088): Turnover RMB190.406bn
Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SZ-HK Connect Southbound)
- TENCENT (700): Turnover RMB548.459bn
- ZTE (763): Turnover RMB463.116bn
- GEELY AUTO (175): Turnover RMB194.949bn
- GENSCRIPT BIO (1548): Turnover RMB134.733bn
- SUNNY OPTICAL (2382): Turnover RMB131.700bn
- CCB (939): Turnover RMB131.411bn
- KINGDEE INT'L (268): Turnover RMB114.414bn
- SMIC (981): Turnover RMB111.590bn
- SUNAC (1918): Turnover RMB97.017bn
- CSPC PHARMA (1093): Turnover RMB93.603bn
Economic Calendars
- China - Jun. Foreign Exchange Reserve (Announced between Jul 8 and Jul 9): USD3,103.00B (vs prior USD3,100.62B)
- China - Jun. PPI YoY: 4.4% (vs prior 4.1%)
- China - Jun. CPI YoY: 2.0% (vs prior 1.8%)
- China - Jun. Aggregate Financing CNY (Announced between Jul 9 and Jul 15): CNY1,315.0B (vs prior CNY760.8B)
- China - Jun. New Yuan Loans CNY: CNY1,535.0B (vs prior CNY1,150.0B)
- US - Jun. PPI YoY: 3.0% (vs prior 3.1%)
- US - Jun. CPI YoY: 2.9% (vs prior 2.8%)
- Euro Zone - May. Industrial Production SA MoM: -0.9%
- China - Jun. Trade Balance (Announced between Jul 12 and Jul 13): USD28.30B (vs prior USD24.92B)
- China - Jun. Exports YoY (Announced between Jul 12 and Jul 13): 10.0% (vs prior 12.6%)
- China - Jun. Imports YoY (Announced between Jul 12 and Jul 13): 20.7% (vs prior 26.0%)
- US - Jun. University of Michigan Sentiment Preliminary: 98.2
Summary of Key Insights
- Market Sentiment: Despite the announcement of additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, the Hong Kong stock market showed a technical rebound, with the Hang Seng Index (HSI) rising 169 points to close at 28,480.
- Stock Performance: Sunny Optical and ZTE were standout performers in the HSI, while Geely Auto and Citic Securities led in the HSCEI.
- Technical Trends: The HSI showed a slight improvement in its technical trend, with the MACD histogram returning to positive territory. However, it failed to sustain above the 10-day moving average.
- Brokerage Sector: Citic Securities outperformed peers in the brokerage sector, with a 13.4% YoY increase in net profit, and is recommended for accumulation due to its strong earnings outlook and execution track record.
- Property Management: China OVS PPT (2669) is expanding its services to third-party developers, which is expected to diversify its revenue sources and improve profitability.
- Stock Connect Activity: Southbound inflows were substantial, particularly for major stocks like ICBC, TENCENT, and CCB, indicating strong investor interest in mainland equities.
- Economic Data: China's economic data showed mixed signals, with rising inflation and trade figures, while U.S. inflation hit a 6-year high, and the 2-year Treasury yield increased slightly.
- Short Selling Activity: Stocks like Ping An, CCB, and Sunny Optical had high short sell ratios, suggesting bearish sentiment from some investors.
Disclaimer
- The information and opinions in this report are for informational purposes only.
- KGI Asia Ltd. does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the data.
- No liability is accepted for any loss arising from the use of this report.
- This report is not an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities.
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