20181119-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_5页_244kb

报告摘要

Market Summary

Core Content

The document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock markets, including key indices, technical indicators, company-specific updates, and trading statistics. It also highlights economic events and market sentiment influenced by global and regional factors.

Major Market Indicators

Indicator	16 Nov	15 Nov	14 Nov
HSI (Points)	26,183	26,103	25,654
HSI Change	+80	+448	-138
HSI Turnover ($bn)	27.30	35.72	26.45
HSCEI (Points)	10,583	10,555	10,405
HSCEI Change	+28	+150	-73
HSCEI Turnover ($bn)	23.09	28.76	21.85

Key Observations:

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,183 on 16 Nov, showing a slight increase compared to the previous two days.
The HSI turnover was HK$78.3 billion, indicating a relatively low trading volume.
The HSCEI closed at 10,583 on 16 Nov, with a modest gain of +28 points.
Market sentiment appears mixed, with some sectors showing strength while others are under pressure.

Technical Analysis

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Closed above 10-day and 50-day moving averages (MA).
MACD histogram remains in positive territory, suggesting a bullish trend.
Initial support at 20-day MA and 25,300; initial resistance at 50-day MA and 26,500.
Technical indicators suggest stabilization, but the overall market turnover remains below HK$100 billion, indicating limited investor confidence.

HSCEI

Technical indicators similar to HSI, with support and resistance levels reflecting potential price movement.

Company Updates

Tencent (0700)

Latest Results: 3Q18 net profit rose 15% YoY to Rmb19.71 billion, driven by strong advertising revenue (+47% YoY) and other services (+69% YoY).
Concerns: Game revenue fell 4% YoY, and gross margin in the online game business declined. Lower taxation expenses contributed to the strong net profit, but actual earnings growth may be lower.
Recommendation: Maintain a take-profit stance at HK$300 due to potential slowdown in game revenue growth and regulatory pressures.
Key Metrics:
- Closed Price: HK$290.40
- Expected P/E: 31.4X
- Dividend Yield: 0.3%
- 52-Week High: HK$475.72
- 52-Week Low: HK$251.40
- 14-day RSI: 52.1

K. Wah Int'L (0173)

Management increased shareholding, signaling confidence in the company.
Net profit fell 73.3% YoY to HK$580 million, and revenue dropped 87.3% YoY to HK$620 million, primarily due to changes in accounting standards.
Unrecognized contracted sales amount to HK$18.5 billion, suggesting future revenue potential.
Expected to launch new projects in 2019, including Kai Tak Area 1K Site 2 and mainland properties, which may support future sales.
Key Metrics:
- Closed Price: HK$3.67
- Expected P/E: 2.55X
- Dividend Yield: 5.26%
- 52-Week High: HK$5.63
- 52-Week Low: HK$3.13
- 14-day RSI: 57.8

Stock Connect Statistics

SH Connect

Balance (RMB bn): 50.94
Balance as % of Quota Amount: 98.0%

SZ Connect

Balance (RMB bn): 50.79
Balance as % of Quota Amount: 97.7%

Combined Southbound

Balance (RMB bn): 83.30
Balance as % of Quota Amount: 99.2%

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

CONCH VENTURE (586): Buy Trades 236,155,750 HKD; Turnover 439,549,925 HKD
ABC (1288): Buy Trades 148,754,280 HKD; Turnover 244,606,380 HKD
TENCENT (700): Buy Trades 136,128,240 HKD; Turnover 232,977,040 HKD
SUNAC (1918): Buy Trades 116,409,950 HKD; Turnover 200,811,250 HKD
SINO BIOPHARM (1177): Buy Trades 38,752,160 HKD; Sell Trades 119,593,910 HKD; Turnover 158,346,070 HKD
CCB (939): Buy Trades 8,578,600 HKD; Sell Trades 125,788,330 HKD; Turnover 134,366,930 HKD
GEELY AUTO (175): Buy Trades 94,814,580 HKD; Sell Trades 33,032,760 HKD; Turnover 127,847,340 HKD
SMIC (981): Buy Trades 70,414,360 HKD; Sell Trades 54,675,985 HKD; Turnover 125,090,345 HKD
ICBC (1398): Buy Trades 42,504,410 HKD; Sell Trades 51,796,000 HKD; Turnover 94,300,410 HKD
CKH HOLDINGS (1): Buy Trades 85,380,975 HKD; Sell Trades 4,013,825 HKD; Turnover 89,394,800 HKD

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SZ-HK Connect Southbound)

MAPLELEAF EDU (1317): Buy Trades 147,931,620 HKD; Sell Trades 264,428,600 HKD; Turnover 412,360,220 HKD
TENCENT (700): Buy Trades 87,575,860 HKD; Sell Trades 294,305,160 HKD; Turnover 381,881,020 HKD
ZTE (763): Buy Trades 194,912,368 HKD; Sell Trades 140,029,900 HKD; Turnover 334,942,268 HKD
BYD COMPANY (1211): Buy Trades 152,338,900 HKD; Sell Trades 13,036,100 HKD; Turnover 165,375,000 HKD
YUHUA EDU (6169): Buy Trades 70,896,460 HKD; Sell Trades 77,900,000 HKD; Turnover 148,796,460 HKD
PETROCHINA (857): Buy Trades 3,980,400 HKD; Sell Trades 133,358,720 HKD; Turnover 137,339,120 HKD
SUNAC (1918): Buy Trades 45,798,250 HKD; Sell Trades 49,459,351 HKD; Turnover 95,257,601 HKD
MICROPORT (853): Buy Trades 71,896,640 HKD; Sell Trades 14,640,050 HKD; Turnover 86,536,690 HKD
SMIC (981): Buy Trades 54,805,055 HKD; Sell Trades 15,719,955 HKD; Turnover 70,525,010 HKD
CONCH CEMENT (914): Buy Trades 1,603,825 HKD; Sell Trades 64,423,025 HKD; Turnover 66,026,850 HKD

Short Sell Statistics

Top 10 Short Sell Stocks

PING AN (02318.HK): Short Sell 943.57M HKD; Turnover 2.36B HKD; Short Sell Ratio 39.94%
ISHARES A50 (02823.HK): Short Sell 396.14M HKD; Turnover 631.32M HKD; Short Sell Ratio 62.75%
CCB (00939.HK): Short Sell 392.07M HKD; Turnover 998.28M HKD; Short Sell Ratio 39.28%
CSOP A50 ETF (02822.HK): Short Sell 383.33M HKD; Turnover 625.01M HKD; Short Sell Ratio 61.33%
TRACKER FUND (02800.HK): Short Sell 325.14M HKD; Turnover 559.64M HKD; Short Sell Ratio 58.10%
CAM CSI300 (03188.HK): Short Sell 313.93M HKD; Turnover 610.27M HKD; Short Sell Ratio 51.44%
BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK): Short Sell 294.52M HKD; Turnover 867.14M HKD; Short Sell Ratio 33.97%
CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK): Short Sell 247.98M HKD; Turnover 808.76M HKD; Short Sell Ratio 30.66%
AIA (01299.HK): Short Sell 234.21M HKD; Turnover 851.76M HKD; Short Sell Ratio 27.50%
TENCENT (00700.HK): Short Sell 233.71M HKD; Turnover 7.49B HKD; Short Sell Ratio 3.12%

Economic Calendars

Date	Country	Event	Survey	Prior
Mon	Hong Kong	CSPC Pharma(1093), Xiaomi-W(1810) Result	-	-
Tue	US	Oct. Housing Starts	1,225K	1,201K
Tue	US	Oct. Building Permits	1,260K	1,270K
Wed	US	Oct. Durable Goods Order MoM	-2.0%	0.7%
Wed	Hong Kong	SaSa(178), Vitasoy(345) Result	-	-
Thu	US	Market will close (Thanksgiving Day)	-	-
Thu	Euro Zone	Nov. Consumer Confidence	-	-2.7
Fri	US	Nov. Markit Manufacturing PMI	56.0	55.7
Fri	Euro Zone	Nov. Markit Manufacturing PMI	52.0	-

Main Points and Key Information

Market Sentiment: Hong Kong stocks opened lower due to U.S. trade concerns, but the HSI rose 80 points, and the HSCEI increased by 28 points.
Sector Performance: The local bank sector performed well, with BOCHK leading the blue-chips.
Tencent: Strong non-GAAP results, but concerns about game revenue and advertising growth due to economic slowdown and regulatory changes.
K. Wah Int'L: Despite recent financial setbacks, future projects and high dividend yield suggest potential for recovery.
Stock Connect: High trading activity in key stocks, with significant turnover in Tencent and others.
Short Sell Activity: Tencent and PING AN are the most shorted stocks, indicating investor caution.
Technical Indicators: HSI and HSCEI show stabilization with support and resistance levels, but market turnover remains low.
Economic Outlook: Investors will focus on U.S. Thanksgiving sales, Eurozone consumer confidence, and UK Brexit developments.

Disclaimer

The information and opinions in this report are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities.
The content is based on internal research by KGI Asia Ltd.
Some equity research and earnings estimates are available on KGIEWORLD.COM.
KGI Asia Ltd. and its affiliates may provide services to companies mentioned in this report.

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