20181116-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_5页_261kb

Market Summary

Core Content

This document provides a detailed overview of the Hong Kong stock market performance as of November 15, 2018, along with technical indicators, key company updates, and economic calendar events. It includes information on major indices, stock turnover, sector performance, and analysis of specific stocks such as The Link (0823) and Hang Seng Bank (0011). Additionally, it highlights the activity in the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and lists the top actively traded and short-sell stocks.

Main Market Indicators

• Hang Seng Index (HSI):

  • Closed at 26,103, up +448 points from the previous day.
  • Market turnover was HK$86.4 billion.
  • Stock Advances: 1,034
  • Stock Declines: 624
  • HSI Turnover: HK$35.72 billion

• Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI):

  • Closed at 10,555, up +150 points.
  • Market turnover was HK$28.76 billion.
  • Stock Advances: 1,034
  • Stock Declines: 624

Technical Analysis

• Hang Seng Index (HSI):

  • Closed higher with a white candlestick, regaining the 10-day SMA and the 26,000 level.
  • MACD histogram is in positive territory, indicating a bullish trend.
  • Support Levels: 20-day SMA and 25,300.
  • Resistance Levels: 50-day SMA and 26,500.
  • RSI: 52.7

• Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI):

  • Closed higher, with an RSI of 53.8.
  • Support Levels: 10,201
  • Resistance Levels: 10,655

Key Company Updates

The Link (0823)

• Performance:
  • Revenue and net property income increased by 7.4% and 6.9% on a like-for-like basis.
  • Interim distribution per unit increased by 7.5% to HK$130.62.
  • Valuation of the investment properties portfolio reached HK$209.79 billion, up 3.3% from March 2018.
  • Net asset value per unit grew by 2.8% to HK$85.41.
  • Occupancy rate remained stable at 95.5%, and the reversion rate was 22.5%.
  • Plans to repurchase up to 80 million units, with 39.5 million units repurchased by September.
  • P/E: 27.8X, P/B: 0.9X, Dividend Yield: 3.61%
  • 52-Week High: 78.65, 52-Week Low: 62.86
  • RSI: 56.4

Hang Seng Bank (0011)

• Performance:
  • Strong performance in the first half of 2018, with interest income up 24% to HK$17.4 billion and interest expenses up 44% to HK$3.1 billion.
  • Net interest income up 20% to HK$14.2 billion.
  • ROE: 17.4%
  • CASA Ratio: 72%, higher than most Hong Kong banks.
  • Impaired Loan Ratio: 0.31%, reflecting a prudent credit policy.
  • P/B Ratio: 2.2X, Dividend Yield: 4.04%
  • Recommendation: Buy at a P/B ratio of 1.8–2.0X.

Stock Market Activity

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

• TENCENT (700): High turnover, up 5.81%, closed at 288.00
• SINO BIOPHARM (1177): Turnover of 341.56 billion HKD, up +1.47%
• CCB (939): Turnover of 258.44 billion HKD, up +1.25%
• GEELY AUTO (175): Turnover of 245.97 billion HKD, down -1.47%
• SUNAC (1918): Turnover of 214.48 billion HKD, down -1.47%
• ICBC (1398): Turnover of 205.3 billion HKD, down -0.93%
• CSPC PHARMA (1093): Turnover of 189.22 billion HKD, down -1.47%
• SH PHARMA (2607): Turnover of 154.43 billion HKD, down -1.47%
• ABC (1288): Turnover of 137.02 billion HKD, down -1.47%
• GAC GROUP (2238): Turnover of 101.15 billion HKD, up +1.25%

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SZ-HK Connect Southbound)

• TENCENT (700): Turnover of 1.35 trillion HKD, up +5.81%
• SINO BIOPHARM (1177): Turnover of 341.56 billion HKD, up +1.47%
• CCB (939): Turnover of 258.44 billion HKD, up +1.25%
• GEELY AUTO (175): Turnover of 245.97 billion HKD, down -1.47%
• SUNAC (1918): Turnover of 214.48 billion HKD, down -1.47%
• ICBC (1398): Turnover of 205.3 billion HKD, down -0.93%
• CSPC PHARMA (1093): Turnover of 189.22 billion HKD, down -1.47%
• SH PHARMA (2607): Turnover of 154.43 billion HKD, down -1.47%
• ABC (1288): Turnover of 137.02 billion HKD, down -1.47%
• GAC GROUP (2238): Turnover of 101.15 billion HKD, up +1.25%

Ten Short Sell Stocks

• TENCENT (00700.HK): Short sell of 791.38 million HKD, short sell ratio of 6.06%
• PING AN (02318.HK): Short sell of 569.82 million HKD, short sell ratio of 30.37%
• CCB (00939.HK): Short sell of 401.52 million HKD, short sell ratio of 31.99%
• AIA (01299.HK): Short sell of 321.80 million HKD, short sell ratio of 29.21%
• CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK): Short sell of 289.20 million HKD, short sell ratio of 32.11%
• ISHARES A50 (02823.HK): Short sell of 256.18 million HKD, short sell ratio of 50.14%
• CSOP A50 ETF (02822.HK): Short sell of 217.65 million HKD, short sell ratio of 64.30%
• ICBC (01398.HK): Short sell of 216.71 million HKD, short sell ratio of 20.16%
• GALAXY ENT (00027.HK): Short sell of 205.70 million HKD, short sell ratio of 23.65%
• BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK): Short sell of 192.46 million HKD, short sell ratio of 24.47%

Economic Calendar Highlights

• China:

  • Oct. Foreign Direct Investment YoY: Announced on Nov 8–18
  • Oct. New Yuan Loans: Announced on Nov 10–15 (Expected: 1,297.0B)
  • Oct. Aggregate Financing CNY: Announced on Nov 10–15 (Expected: 900.0B)
  • Oct. Retail Sales YoY: Expected at 9.2%
  • Oct. Industrial Production YoY: Expected at 5.8%
  • Oct. Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY: Expected at 5.5%

• Hong Kong:

  • VTech (303), Kingsoft (3888): Results to be released
  • Want Want (151), Yue Yuen (551), Samsontie (1910): Results to be released

• US:

  • Oct. CPI YoY: Expected at 2.4% (Prior: 2.3%)
  • Initial Jobless Claim (Till Nov 10): Expected
  • Continuing Jobless Claim (Till Nov 3): Expected

• Euro Zone:

  • Q3 GDP SA YoY: Expected
  • Sep. Trade Balance SA: Expected at $16.6B
  • Oct. CPI YoY: Expected at 2.1%

Summary

The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both showed positive movement on November 15, 2018, with the HSI up 448 points and the HSCEI up 150 points. The market sentiment was cautiously optimistic due to the easing of Sino-US trade tensions, but there was still a lack of significant fund inflow. The HSI closed above the 10-day SMA and 26,000 level, showing signs of stabilization, while the HSCEI remained in a positive trend with an RSI of 53.8.

The Link (0823) reported a 7.4% increase in revenue and 6.9% in net property income on a like-for-like basis. It also announced plans to repurchase shares, which is expected to support the share price. The company is increasing its asset value in Mainland China to enhance profitability. The Hang Seng Bank (0011) had strong performance in the first half of 2018, with a 2.10% net interest margin and 17.4% ROE. However, it is expected to face challenges in the second half due to the pressure on interest expenses.

The top actively traded stocks included Tencent, which showed strong performance across both SH and SZ-HK Connect, and several other blue-chip companies. The top short-sell stocks were also listed, with Tencent and the A50 ETF being the most heavily shorted.

Economic calendar events for the week include data releases from China and the Euro Zone, as well as US employment reports. These events may influence market sentiment and stock performance in the coming days.