20180615-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_6页_230kb

Market Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong stock market and related sectors, including the Hang Seng Index (HSI), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI), their technical indicators, futures data, and key industry statistics. It also includes insights on specific stocks, such as Anta (2020.HK), Brilliance Chi (1114), and the impact of short selling reports. Additionally, it outlines the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect (SH/HK Connect) statistics and upcoming economic events.

Key Market Indicators

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

• 14 Jun: 30,440 (down 285 points)
• 13 Jun: 30,725 (down 377 points)
• 12 Jun: 31,103 (up 39 points)
• Market Turnover (mn): 96,100 (14 Jun), 84,400 (13 Jun), 87,700 (12 Jun)
• Technical Indicators:
  • 10-day MA: 30,965
  • 50-day MA: 30,629
  • 250-day MA: 29,219
  • 14-day RSI: 44.6
  • Primary resistance: 31,000
  • Primary support: 30,000

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)

• 14 Jun: 11,950 (down 84 points)
• 13 Jun: 12,035 (down 170 points)
• 12 Jun: 12,206 (up 34 points)
• Market Turnover ($bn): 33.61 (14 Jun), 24.94 (13 Jun), 23.14 (12 Jun)
• Technical Indicators:
  • 10-day MA: 12,175
  • 50-day MA: 12,147
  • 250-day MA: 11,702
  • 14-day RSI: 43.0
  • Primary resistance: 12,175
  • Primary support: 11,769

HSI Futures

HSCEI Futures

China Sportswear Sector

• ANTA (2020.HK):
  • Closed price: HK$45.15
  • Expected P/E: 24.0X
  • Dividend yield: 2.7%
  • 52-week high: HK$49.30
  • 52-week low: HK$21.67
  • 14-day RSI: 46.8
  • Short Selling Report: Muddy Waters accused a US-listed education company of inflating profits, which also affected Hong Kong-listed education stocks. However, the report on Anta is considered misleading, and the company maintains strong transparency and performance. The current valuation is seen as high, suggesting potential profit-taking pressure.

Brilliance Chi (1114)

• Sales Performance:
  • Total sales in May decreased 10.1% YoY to 45,860 units.
  • First five months sales increased 2.5% YoY.
• Tariff Impact: The cut in import tariffs is expected to affect imported vehicles, but Brilliance Chi's localized models remain stable with monthly sales above 35,000 units.
• Financial Performance:
  • 1Q18 investment income (mainly from Brilliance) increased over 30% YoY to EUR223 million.
• Valuation:
  • Expected P/E: 8.7X
  • Recommendation: Neutral, with a focus on long-term investment due to upcoming new models and stable sales.

SH/HK Connect Statistics

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks

Ten Short Sell Stocks

Economic Calendars

Summary of Key Points

• The HSI and HSCEI both experienced declines in the last week, with HSI showing a stronger technical weakness.
• Market sentiment was affected by weak China economic data, the Fed's rate hike, and the HKMA's base rate increase.
• Short selling reports targeted education and sportswear sectors, notably TAL and ANTA (2020.HK), with ANTA defending its financials and transparency.
• Brilliance Chi (1114) saw stable sales despite the tariff cut, and the company is expected to benefit from new models and localized production.
• SH/HK Connect activity remained strong, with TENCENT and SMIC as the most actively traded stocks.
• Short selling pressure was evident in several major stocks, including TENCENT, PING AN, and SINOPEC CORP.
• Technical indicators for HSI and HSCEI suggest a bearish outlook with limited upside potential.
• IPO brief for CTEH Inc (1620) highlights the company's strong market position and growth potential, but its valuation is considered unattractive.