20180801-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_5页_272kb

报告摘要

Market Summary

Core Market Indicators

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

31 Jul HSI: 28,583 (down 150 points)
30 Jul HSI: 28,733 (down 71 points)
27 Jul HSI: 28,804 (up 23 points)
Market Turnover (mn): 87,500 (31 Jul)
Stock Advances: 656 (31 Jul)
Stock Declines: 1,020 (31 Jul)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)

31 Jul HSCEI: 11,024 (down 21 points)
30 Jul HSCEI: 11,046 (down 1 point)
27 Jul HSCEI: 11,047 (up 26 points)
Market Turnover (mn): 32.15 (31 Jul)
Stock Advances: 622 (30 Jul)
Stock Declines: 787 (27 Jul)

Technical Analysis

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

10-day MA: 28,509
50-day MA: 29,506
250-day MA: 29,556
14-day RSI: 45.4
Primary Resistance: 29,000
Primary Support: 28,000

The HSI closed above the 20-day SMA but the MACD histogram showed a narrowing positive trend, indicating mixed technical signals. The index is expected to trade between 28,500 and 28,900.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)

10-day MA: 10,870
50-day MA: 11,397
250-day MA: 11,754
14-day RSI: 50.5
Primary Resistance: 11,397
Primary Support: 10,785

The HSCEI also showed a narrowing positive trend in its technical indicators. The index is expected to face resistance at 11,397.

Key Stock Performances

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

TENCENT (700): Total turnover 1,141,409,160
ICBC (1398): Total turnover 266,982,758
SUNNY OPTICAL (2382): Total turnover 265,779,000
PICC P&C (2328): Total turnover 175,090,920
HKEX (388): Total turnover 173,577,780
SUNAC (1918): Total turnover 148,048,400
CCB (939): Total turnover 117,774,010
CHINA LIFE (2628): Total turnover 113,127,220
CPIC (2601): Total turnover 94,253,050
HUANENG POWER (902): Total turnover 92,882,740

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SZ-HK Connect Southbound)

TENCENT (700): Turnover 443,920,120
KINGDEE INT'L (268): Turnover 250,850,260
SUNNY OPTICAL (2382): Turnover 230,066,010
CHINASOFT INT'L (354): Turnover 87,478,980
ZTE (763): Turnover 76,030,740
SUNAC (1918): Turnover 67,338,650
LI NING (2331): Turnover 66,264,335
CCB (939): Turnover 64,559,400
MAPLELEAF-NEW (1317): Turnover 63,744,980
FU SHOU YUAN (1448): Turnover 56,893,770

Short Sell Activity

TENCENT (00700.HK): Short Sell 1.47B, Short Sell Ratio 11.10%
PING AN (02318.HK): Short Sell 527.72M, Short Sell Ratio 22.30%
CCB (00939.HK): Short Sell 509.76M, Short Sell Ratio 26.01%
XIAOMI-W (01810.HK): Short Sell 382.64M, Short Sell Ratio 21.54%
TRACKER FUND (02800.HK): Short Sell 333.31M, Short Sell Ratio 60.93%
ISHARES A50 (02823.HK): Short Sell 311.27M, Short Sell Ratio 69.60%
CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK): Short Sell 292.32M, Short Sell Ratio 20.10%
KINGDEE INT'L (00268.HK): Short Sell 222.16M, Short Sell Ratio 21.91%
AIA (01299.HK): Short Sell 220.89M, Short Sell Ratio 18.11%
SUNNY OPTICAL (02382.HK): Short Sell 209.75M, Short Sell Ratio 16.21%

Company Highlights

Standard Chartered (2888)

1H18 Revenue: US $7.65bn (+5.9% YoY)
1H18 Pre-Tax Profit: US $2.4bn (+23% YoY)
Interim DPS: US$0.06 (below expectation)
Operating Expenses: US $5.1bn (+7.3% YoY)
Net Interest Income: US $4.36bn (+10% YoY)
NIM: 1.59% (+4 bp YoY)
Loan Provision Expenses: Down 50% YoY to US $293mn
Pretax Profit from Asia: 80% of total
Valuation: P/B ratio of 0.65X
Dividend Yield: 2.5%
52 Week High: 93.94
52 Week Low: 68.30
14-day RSI: 38.5

Analyst: Chua Tit Hong, CFA

Yuexiu REIT (0405)

Closed Price: 5.33
Expected P/B (X): 1.0
Dividend Yield (%): 6.6
52 Week High: 5.60
52 Week Low: 4.62
14-day RSI: 52.1

Yuexiu REIT is primarily engaged in commercial property leasing in China, with a strong presence in Guangzhou. The company has a leading position in the Guangzhou market and is well-positioned to benefit from the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Bay Area. The company recently acquired Wuhan Yuexiu Fortune Centre, which is expected to increase property valuation and rental income.

Stock Market Outlook

The Hang Seng Index is expected to trade between 28,500 and 28,900.
Market sentiment is mixed due to the sell-off of Tencent and Xiaomi, but there is some positive sentiment from the possibility of U.S.-China trade talks restarting.
Investors are advised to watch the FOMC meeting results and U.S. employment data for further market direction.

Economic Calendars

Mon: Hang Lung Group(10), Hang Lung PPT(101) Results
Tue: U.S. Jun. Core PCE YoY, Jun. Personal Income, Jun. Personal Spending; Euro Zone Jul. Unemployment Rate
Wed: U.S. Jul. Markit Manufacturing PMI; Euro Zone Jul. Markit Manufacturing PMI; China Jul. Caixin China Manufacturing PMI
Thu: U.S. FOMC Rate Decision; U.S. Initial Jobless Claim (Till Jul 28); U.S. Continuing Jobless Claim (Till Jul 21); Euro Zone Jun. PPI YoY; UK BOE Rate Decision
Fri: U.S. Jun. Trade Balance; U.S. Jul. Change in Non-farm Payrolls; U.S. Jul. Unemployment Rate

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities.
The information and opinions are subject to change without notice.
KGI Asia Ltd. does not make any representation or warranty regarding the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information or opinions.
No person accepts any liability for any loss arising from the use of this report.

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