20180724-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_5页_223kb

报告摘要

Summary of Market Indicators and Analysis

Core Market Indicators

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) are the key indices for the Hong Kong stock market. The following are the key figures for the period from July 19 to July 23:

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Market Turnover (mn): 84,000 (23 Jul), 100,300 (20 Jul), 77,400 (19 Jul)
Stock Advances: 809 (23 Jul), 834 (20 Jul), 630 (19 Jul)
Stock Declines: 811 (23 Jul), 824 (20 Jul), 998 (19 Jul)
HSI Value: 28,256 (23 Jul), 28,224 (20 Jul), 28,010 (19 Jul)
Change: +31 (23 Jul), +213 (20 Jul), -106 (19 Jul)
HSI Turnover ($bn): 32.63 (23 Jul), 40.68 (20 Jul), 27.92 (19 Jul)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)

HSCEI Value: 10,731 (23 Jul), 10,682 (20 Jul), 10,523 (19 Jul)
Change: +48 (23 Jul), +159 (20 Jul), -55 (19 Jul)
HSCEI Turnover ($bn): 31.14 (23 Jul), 34.08 (20 Jul), 22.20 (19 Jul)

Technical Analysis

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

10-day MA: 28,333
50-day MA: 29,790
250-day MA: 29,507
14-day RSI: 38.9
Primary Resistance: 28,448
Primary Support: 27,831

The HSI opened higher on Monday but closed with a black candlestick, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD histogram remained positive, suggesting a potential upward trend. However, mixed signals suggest the index is pending for a directional change. The first support level is at 27,746, and the second support is at 27,500. The first resistance is now at the 20-day SMA, and the second resistance is at 29,000.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)

10-day MA: 10,679
50-day MA: 11,559
250-day MA: 11,749
14-day RSI: 39.2
Primary Resistance: 11,000
Primary Support: 10,244

The HSCEI also opened higher, but mixed technical signals suggest uncertainty. The first support is at 10,244, and the second is at 11,000. The index is expected to trade within a range, with the potential for a rebound in the second half of 2018 due to increased government funding for infrastructure.

Market Movements

CSPC Pharma (1093): Fell 3.8%, the worst performer among blue-chips, due to the substandard vaccine scandal.
Wuxi Bio (2269): Rose 2.2% due to a positive profit alert.
Sunny Optical (2382): Declined 2.4% due to smartphone market weakness.
US Treasury Yield: Rose 7 basis points to 2.96% due to potential changes in Bank of Japan's monetary policy.
Nasdaq: Rose 22 points to 7,842.
Dow: Fell 14 points to 25,044 due to a drop in 3M share price.

Economic Calendars

Key economic events are scheduled for the upcoming week, including:

Monday: US Existing Home Sales (Expected: 5.46M), Euro Zone Consumer Confidence (Prior: -0.5)
Tuesday: US Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Euro Zone Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: US New Home Sales (Expected: 670K), Hong Kong ASM PACIFIC and HKELECTRIC-SS interim results
Thursday: US Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, Jun. Durable Goods Orders (Expected: 2.7%)
Friday: US Q2 GDP QoQ (Expected: 4.0%), Q2 Personal Consumption, Q2 Core PCE QoQ, Jul. University of Michigan Sentiment Final (Expected: 97.3), Hong Kong FORTUNE REIT and ZTE Q1 results

IPO and Stock Activity

Hope Education (1765) IPO

Description: A private higher education group with 8 schools in Sichuan, Guizhou, and Shanxi.
Student Numbers: 86,409 in 2017/18 school year, with 73,573 enrolled in higher education.
Revenue Growth: Over 20% in the past fiscal year, with 80% from tuition fees.
IPO Price Range: HK$1.52 to HK$1.92
Valuation: Historical P/E ratio of 41.7x to 52.6x, in line with peers like China Edu Group (839) and Minsheng Edu (1569).
Recommendation: "Subscribe" due to aggressive expansion and supportive policies.

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

TENCENT (700): Buy Trades: 1,026,809,560, Sell Trades: 173,342,680, Turnover: 1,200,152,240
ICBC (1398): Buy Trades: 29,237,040, Sell Trades: 942,462,720, Turnover: 971,699,760
CCB (939): Buy Trades: 46,446,640, Sell Trades: 619,508,380, Turnover: 665,955,020
ABC (1288): Buy Trades: 36,767,356, Sell Trades: 260,653,080, Turnover: 297,420,436
SUNAC (1918): Buy Trades: 136,683,650, Sell Trades: 108,373,100, Turnover: 245,056,750
CPIC (2601): Buy Trades: 8,041,360, Sell Trades: 171,346,380, Turnover: 179,387,740
SINO BIOPHARM (1177): Buy Trades: 122,388,910, Sell Trades: 40,433,240, Turnover: 162,822,150
HUANENG POWER (902): Buy Trades: 25,092,737, Sell Trades: 132,635,160, Turnover: 157,727,897
PING AN (2318): Buy Trades: 50,654,650, Sell Trades: 94,054,025, Turnover: 144,708,675
CSPC PHARMA (1093): Buy Trades: 105,782,100, Sell Trades: 27,320,500, Turnover: 133,102,600

Ten Most Actively Traded Stocks

TENCENT (700): Closed at 371.00, Turnover: 7,402.5M, Change: -1.49%
CCB (939): Closed at 6.92, Turnover: 3,257.5M, Change: +0.88%
PING AN (2318): Closed at 71.60, Turnover: 2,746.8M, Change: +0.07%
ICBC (1398): Closed at 5.63, Turnover: 2,403.5M, Change: +1.26%
XIAOMI-W (1810): Closed at 19.02, Turnover: 1,603.5M, Change: -4.33%
CM BANK (3968): Closed at 29.35, Turnover: 1,357.2M, Change: +1.91%
BANK OF CHINA (3988): Closed at 3.62, Turnover: 1,131.6M, Change: +0.28%
SUNAC (1918): Closed at 25.10, Turnover: 1,089.6M, Change: +3.72%
CSPC PHARMA (1093): Closed at 21.45, Turnover: 1,085.4M, Change: -3.81%
SUNNY OPTICAL (2382): Closed at 132.70, Turnover: 1,057.7M, Change: -2.43%

Short Sell Activity

Ten Short Sell Stocks

TENCENT (00700.HK): Short Sell: 1.06B, Turnover: 7.40B, Short Sell Ratio: 14.34%
CCB (00939.HK): Short Sell: 733.41M, Turnover: 3.26B, Short Sell Ratio: 22.52%
HSCEI ETF (02828.HK): Short Sell: 724.27M, Turnover: 1.02B, Short Sell Ratio: 71.06%
PING AN (02318.HK): Short Sell: 549.62M, Turnover: 2.75B, Short Sell Ratio: 20.01%
TRACKER FUND (02800.HK): Short Sell: 517.34M, Turnover: 759.98M, Short Sell Ratio: 68.07%
ISHARES A50 (02823.HK): Short Sell: 469.02M, Turnover: 718.13M, Short Sell Ratio: 65.31%
AIA (01299.HK): Short Sell: 274.20M, Turnover: 953.35M, Short Sell Ratio: 28.76%
CSOP A50 ETF (02822.HK): Short Sell: 250.24M, Turnover: 535.96M, Short Sell Ratio: 46.69%
CM BANK (03968.HK): Short Sell: 239.16M, Turnover: 1.36B, Short Sell Ratio: 17.62%
EVERGRANDE (03333.HK): Short Sell: 204.98M, Turnover: 527.98M, Short Sell Ratio: 38.82%

Economic Outlook

China Fixed Asset Investment Growth: Likely to rebound in 2H18 due to increased local government bond issuance and policy support.
Policy Measures: The Chinese government is expected to use monetary and fiscal policies to stabilize economic growth, with a focus on reducing the tax burden and increasing liquidity.
Valuation and Sector Picks: China Resources Cement (1313) and Anhui Conch (0914) are highlighted as top picks due to strong balance sheets and high gross margins.
Market Focus: The upcoming IPO of China Tower is expected to be a market focus.

Disclaimer

KGI Asia Ltd. provides equity research and earnings estimates, and the information and opinions in this report are for informational purposes only. No liability is accepted for any loss arising from the use of this report. The report is not an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities.

展开完整摘要