20150918-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_781kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
- Oil Prices: On 17 September 2015, both Brent and WTI crude oil prices declined. Brent fell by 1.3% to USD49.08/b, while WTI dropped by 0.5% to USD46.90/b. The Dubai Fateh Spot and China Daqing Spot also saw price changes, with the former rising 1.2% and the latter remaining flat.
- Market Volatility: The oil futures market experienced volatility, with prices fluctuating due to the Federal Reserve's decision to keep US interest rates unchanged. A weaker US dollar supported dollar-denominated commodities like oil.
- OPEC Outlook: OPEC expects oil prices to gradually recover to $80 per barrel by 2020, but this is slower than what some member countries need. The average selling price is projected to increase by about $5 annually.
- China's Oil Imports: China plans to double its pipeline imports of Russian ESPO crude to 30 million metric tons per year by October 2017 with the second Mohe-Daqing pipeline.
- Shell-BG Deal: The Australian watchdog raised concerns about the £43bn Shell-BG deal, fearing it may harm consumers by limiting gas supply in the domestic market.
Main Reports
SapuraKencana Petroleum
- Rating: HOLD
- Price: MYR2.00
- Key Points: 1HFY16 earnings positively surprised, but long-term prospects are weak. A second impairment is likely in 4QFY16. Expect weaker FY17 compared to FY16. No major catalysts expected.
Petronas Chemicals
- Rating: HOLD
- Price: MYR2.00
- Key Points: ASP peaked in mid-July and is experiencing a pullback. Weakening MYR against USD provides a revenue and profit boost in 3Q15. Dividend yields remain mid-3%.
China Oil & Gas
- Rating: OVERWEIGHT
- Price: MYR11.70
- Key Points: Sector upgraded to Overweight. Sinopec upgraded to BUY, while CNOOC remains a BUY. PetroChina is recommended for SELL.
KNM Group
- Rating: BUY
- Price: MYR1.00
- Key Points: Toyo's sub-contract work worth MYR183m starts in September 2015 and will take 25 months. More RAPID-related works expected.
Asia Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (17-Sep) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDm) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 5.83 | 4.80 | 238.5 | 102.8 | 25.6 | 44.7 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 5.25 | 6.00 | 92.3 | 83.3 | 12.7 | 13.9 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 8.68 | 11.70 | 50.0 | 92.9 | 15.9 | 18.9 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.11 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 230.5 | NR | 29.8 | 17.7 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 13.3 | 1.1 | 4.3 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 872.6 | NR | 42.7 | 59.4 | 11.7 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 144.4 | 198.00 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 11.7 | 0.4 | 6.3 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 862.4 | NR | 9.4 | 25.5 | 19.9 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 15.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 775.8 | NR | 4.0 | 24.6 | 19.9 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 21.50 | 24.00 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 23.5 | 23.3 | 14.1 | 13.8 | 16.7 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
Asia Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (17-Sep) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDm) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSL | 2883 HK | NR | 8.28 | NR | 9.7 | 18.1 | 12.9 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Anton Oil | 3337 HK | NR | 1.03 | NR | 0.3 | 0.9 | N/A | 84.7 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 9.1 | -2.9 | 0.3 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 0.72 | NR | 0.1 | 0.5 | N/A | 23.5 | 45.5 | 12.3 | 9.1 | -13.7 | 0.6 |
| Hilong | 1623 HK | NR | 1.47 | NR | 0.3 | 0.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 10.8 | 0.6 | 3.0 |
| Honghua | 196 HK | NR | 0.60 | NR | 0.3 | 0.6 | N/A | 23.5 | 23.5 | 12.3 | 9.1 | -2.9 | 0.3 |
| Petro King | 2178 HK | NR | 0.69 | NR | 0.1 | 0.1 | N/A | 23.5 | 345.0 | 15.4 | 10.6 | -1.9 | 0.4 |
| Jutal Offshore | 3303 HK | NR | 0.71 | NR | 0.1 | 0.3 | 11.7 | 7.3 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Shengli Pipe | 1080 HK | NR | 0.25 | NR | 0.1 | 0.1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Chu Kong Pipe | 1938 HK | NR | 1.37 | NR | 0.2 | 0.2 | N/A | 8.7 | 46.0 | 18.7 | -4.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| AlamMaritim | AMRB MK | Sell | 0.49 | 0.35 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Barakah Offshore | BARAKAH MK | Hold | 0.91 | 0.75 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 31.4 | 12.1 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 0.91 | 1.20 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 26.4 | 23.7 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Perdana Petroleum | PETR MK | Buy | 1.54 | 1.70 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 19.2 | 9.2 | 14.2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
Key Information
- Market Trends: Oil prices showed a decline in the short term but OPEC remains optimistic about a gradual recovery to $80 in 2020.
- China's Energy Strategy: The country is increasing its reliance on Russian oil imports and showing a positive outlook on the oil and gas sector, with some companies upgraded to Overweight or Buy.
- Regulatory Concerns: The Shell-BG acquisition is under scrutiny in Australia due to potential negative impacts on the domestic gas market.
- Company Performance: Some companies like Sinopec and CNOOC are performing well, with positive outlooks and higher target prices.
- Valuation Metrics: The report includes various financial metrics such as PER, EV/EBITDA, ROE, and P/BV for companies across Asia, offering insights into their current market valuations.
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