【世界银行】2024年10月大宗商品市场展望报告_62页_1mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

The World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook for October 2024 provides a comprehensive analysis of global commodity price trends and forecasts for the coming years. It covers major commodity groups, including energy, agriculture, fertilizers, metals and minerals, and precious metals, and highlights the special focus on commodity price synchronization in a new era.

Main Viewpoints

• Overall Commodity Price Outlook:
  Commodity prices are expected to decrease by 5% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, after a 3% decline in 2024. This would bring aggregate prices to their lowest levels since 2020, though still nearly 30% above the 2015–19 average.

• Energy Prices:

  • Oil prices are projected to fall from a high in 2022, with Brent crude oil averaging $80/bbl in 2024, $73/bbl in 2025, and $72/bbl in 2026.
  • OPEC+ is a key factor in oil price stability, with spare capacity of ~7% of global production.
  • A conflict escalation in the Middle East could pose a substantial upside risk to oil prices.
  • Natural gas prices in Europe are expected to rise 7% in 2025 and fall in 2026 due to increased supply.
  • U.S. natural gas prices are forecast to decline in 2024 but rise sharply in 2025–2026 due to increased exports.
  • Coal prices are projected to fall throughout the forecast period, led by declining global consumption, particularly in China.

• Agricultural Prices:

  • Prices for many staple crops like maize, soybeans, and wheat have trended lower this year due to solid harvests and favorable growing conditions.
  • The World Bank's food commodity price index is down 4% year-to-date in September 2024.
  • Prices for cocoa, coffee, and rice have reached historic highs due to weather- and disease-related shocks and trade restrictions.
  • Agricultural raw materials prices are expected to remain stable over the forecast period.

• Fertilizers:

  • Fertilizer prices are mixed, with some upward pressure due to rising energy costs, while supply conditions remain favorable.

• Metals and Minerals:

  • Base metals like aluminum and copper have been supported by demand from the energy transition.
  • The World Bank base metals index rose 10% year-to-date in September 2024.
  • Iron ore prices are expected to decline further in 2025–2026, due to weakness in China's construction sector and increased supply.

• Precious Metals:

  • Gold prices have surged 27% since December 2023, driven by strong demand from central banks and geopolitical tensions.
  • The precious metals index is forecast to plateau around record levels in the coming years.

Key Information

• Commodity Price Forecast:

  • The World Bank Commodity Price Forecasts cover 46 commodities.
  • The data cutoff date for this report is October 21, 2024.
  • The report and data are accessible at www.worldbank.org/commodities.

• Methodology and Disclaimer:

  • The report is based on data from external sources, including Bloomberg, IEA, EIA, and World Gold Council.
  • The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the data.
  • Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license applies, allowing reuse with proper attribution.

• Special Focus:

  • The report explores the synchronization of commodity price cycles, suggesting a new era with increased idiosyncratic shocks.
  • Commodity price synchronization is fading, with geopolitical, weather, and trade-related shocks playing a more prominent role.

Risks and Uncertainties

Near-term Upside Risks:

• Escalating conflict in the Middle East: Could drive energy prices higher and have knock-on effects on other commodities.
• Stronger-than-expected economic growth: Particularly in China and the U.S., could increase commodity demand.
• Extreme weather events: May disrupt agricultural supply, leading to higher prices for food and agricultural raw materials.

Longer-term Downside Risks:

• Increased oil supply: If OPEC+ unwinds production cuts, oil prices could fall significantly, especially if non-OPEC+ producers increase output.
• Weaker global industrial activity: Could dampen demand for metals and energy commodities.
• Climate change impacts: May lead to supply disruptions across multiple sectors, including agriculture and energy.

Outlook by Commodity Group

Conclusion

The report highlights a shift in commodity market dynamics, with increased idiosyncratic shocks and less synchronized price movements. While oil prices are expected to decline over the next few years, geopolitical tensions and economic activity remain key drivers of price volatility. Agricultural prices are on a downward trend, though supply shocks could push prices higher. The precious metals market, particularly gold, is resilient and elevated, reflecting strong central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty. The special focus on price synchronization suggests that market behavior is evolving in response to global challenges like climate change and trade fragmentation.