2016全球养老金资产配置报告（英文版）_39页_613kb

Global Pension Assets Study 2016 Summary

Core Content

The Global Pension Assets Study 2016 provides an overview of pension assets across 19 major markets (P19) and a deeper analysis of seven of these (P7). The study highlights the size, allocation, and evolution of pension assets globally from 2005 to 2015, as well as the growing influence of various factors on pension fund development.

Key Findings

Total Pension Assets (P19)

• Total pension assets at the end of 2015 were estimated at USD 35,438 billion, representing a 0.5% decrease from 2014.
• The assets-to-GDP ratio reached 80.3%, a 3.9% decrease from 2014's 84.2%.
• The three largest pension markets were the US (61.5%), UK (9.0%), and Japan (7.7%), which together account for 78.2% of total assets.
• Currency exchange rates significantly affect pension assets when measured in USD, as seen in the local currency growth rates.

P7 Asset Allocation

• Average global asset allocation for the seven largest markets in 2015: 44% equities, 29% bonds, 24% other assets (including real estate and alternatives), and 3% cash.
• Shift in asset allocation since 1996: increase in other assets and decrease in equities and bonds.
• Australia, UK, and US have higher equity allocations compared to other P7 markets.
• Switzerland, Japan, and Netherlands have more conservative strategies with higher bond allocations.

P7 DB/DC Split

• DC assets represent 48.4% of total P7 pension assets, showing a dominant trend towards defined contribution (DC) plans.
• DC assets grew at 7.1% pa over the last 10 years, while DB assets grew at 3.4% pa.
• Australia and US are the most DC-oriented, with 86.6% and 59.7% respectively.
• Japan and Canada are predominantly DB, but showing signs of a shift towards DC.

Key Figures Table

Growth Rates

• 10-year CAGR (USD): The fastest growth was in Chile (14.2%), Mexico (9.2%), Australia (9.1%), and Hong Kong (8.8%).
• Slowest growth: Japan (-0.4%) and France (1.3%).
• Currency impact: In 2015, all currencies except the Hong Kong Dollar depreciated against the USD.
• Local currency growth: The 5-year growth rates ranged from 3.9% in Spain to 23.8% in Chile.

Gini Coefficient

• The Gini coefficient for global pension assets in 2015 was 72.1%, indicating concentration in a few countries.
• The Gini coefficient for GDP dropped from 59.0% in 2005 to 56.2% in 2015, showing a less concentrated GDP.
• The Gini coefficient for pension assets was higher than that of GDP, suggesting greater concentration in pension assets than in GDP.

Asset Allocation Trends

• Equities: The share of domestic equities in pension funds decreased from 64.7% in 1998 to 42.9% in 2015.
• Bonds: The allocation to domestic bonds decreased from 88.2% in 1998 to 76.3% in 2015.
• Other assets: Increased significantly, from 7% to 24%.
• Cash: Remained at 3%.

Top 300 Pension Funds

• The top 300 pension funds represented 43.1% of global pension assets in 2015.
• The top 10 Japanese pension funds accounted for 63.4% of total Japanese assets, largely due to the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF).
• The top 10 US pension funds represented 8.5% of total assets.

The Faces of Change

Six Medium-Term Factors Influencing Pension Fund Development

1. Improvements in governance
2. Demographic shifts
3. Economic and financial market developments
4. Technological advancements
5. Regulatory changes
6. Globalization and cross-border investments

These factors are expected to shape the future of pension systems, influencing their structure, performance, and sustainability.

Conclusion

The Global Pension Assets Study 2016 underscores the evolution of pension markets, the shift from DB to DC, and the impact of currency fluctuations on asset growth. It also highlights the concentration of pension assets in a few key countries and the global trend towards diversified investment strategies. The study serves as a valuable resource for understanding the current state and future direction of pension systems worldwide.