2018年欧洲私募股权展望（英文版）_42页_1mb

European Private Equity Outlook 2018 Summary

Core Content

The European Private Equity Outlook 2018 is the 9th consecutive report by Roland Berger, analyzing the expectations of over 2,500 private equity (PE) professionals across Europe. The report provides insights into the anticipated development of the PE market in 2018, focusing on M&A activity, valuation trends, competitive dynamics, and value creation strategies.

Main Points

1. M&A Activity and Growth Expectations

• Growth in M&A transactions: Over half (51%) of PE professionals expect an increase in M&A transactions with PE involvement in 2018, similar to the previous year.
• Geographic outlook: Growth is anticipated across all regions except the UK. France and Spain & Portugal are the most optimistic, with expected growth rates of 4.4% and 3.8%, respectively.
• Industry focus: Pharma & Healthcare, Business Services & Logistics, and Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) are the top three industries for PE-driven M&A in 2018.
• Transaction size: Mid/small-cap segments are considered the most promising, with a slight decrease in expectations for large-cap transactions, though still more positive than 2017.

2. Investment Focus and Portfolio Management

• Divesting existing investments is the top priority for PE investors in 2018, up from 2017.
• New investments were the top focus in 2017 and 2016.
• Portfolio development is slightly less important, with around 22% of respondents indicating it as their main focus.
• Active portfolio management is expected to gain more importance, with minority investments and club deals also becoming more common.

3. Valuation Trends and Exit Channels

• Valuation multiples are seen as slightly overvalued or overvalued by 93% of PE professionals.
• 30% of respondents expect valuation multiples to increase further in 2018.
• Exit channels: Sale to strategic investors and sale to PE investors are expected to develop most favorably, with IPOs also showing a positive trend.
• Process uncertainty remains a challenge, though less pronounced than in 2017 (39% vs. 62%).

4. Competitive Dynamics

• Fundraising competition: 62% of PE professionals expect no change in the competitive environment for fundraising in 2018.
• Chinese investors: Their competition for deals is expected to remain stable or slightly increase. They are particularly active in Capital Goods & Engineering, TMT, and Automotive sectors.
• Competitive advantages for Chinese investors: Access to the home market and favorable financing conditions are key factors.

5. External Consultancy and Transaction Phases

• External consultants are most involved during the acquisition and pre-exit phases of PE portfolio companies.
• Value creation measures include add-on acquisitions and digitalization/Industry 4.0, with active portfolio management gaining importance.

Key Information

• Survey methodology: The report is based on an exclusive survey of over 2,500 PE professionals.
• PE segment priorities:
  • Divesting existing investments (51%)
  • Making new investments (2017/2016)
  • Developing portfolio companies (2017)
• Valuation perception:
  • 93% consider current multiples to be overvalued.
  • 30% expect further increases in 2018.
• Exit channels:
  • Sale to strategic investors (+8%)
  • Sale to PE investors (+3%)
  • IPOs expected to increase.
• Chinese investors:
  • Expected to increase competition in 2018.
  • Most active in Capital Goods & Engineering, TMT, and Automotive.
  • Their competitive advantages include access to the home market and favorable financing.

Comparison with Previous Years

• Growth expectations for M&A transactions in 2018 are similar to 2017, with a slight decline in the number of respondents expecting a decrease.
• Pharma & Healthcare and Business Services & Logistics are expected to see significantly higher PE involvement compared to previous years.
• Investment opportunities in 2018 are slightly more favorable than in 2017, though still below 2016 levels.

Conclusion

The 2018 European Private Equity Outlook reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook for the PE market, with a focus on mid/small-cap M&A, divesting existing investments, and active portfolio management. Valuation multiples are generally overvalued, and process uncertainty remains a challenge, though less severe than in 2017. Chinese investors are expected to maintain a strong presence, particularly in specific industries, due to their competitive advantages.