2018年欧洲私募股权展望英文版_42页_1mb

European Private Equity Outlook 2018 Summary

Core Content

The European Private Equity Outlook 2018 is a comprehensive report based on a survey of over 2,500 private equity professionals across Europe. It outlines market expectations, challenges, and trends for the private equity (PE) industry in 2018, emphasizing the shift in investment strategies and the evolving competitive landscape.

Main Viewpoints

1. Growth Expectations for M&A Transactions

• 51% of PE professionals expect an increase in M&A transactions with PE involvement in 2018, similar to the previous year.
• The UK is expected to see a decline in M&A activities due to Brexit uncertainty.
• France, Spain & Portugal, and Eastern Europe are anticipated to experience the strongest growth in PE-driven M&A.
• The mid/small-cap segment is seen as the most promising, while the large-cap segment remains uncertain.

2. Economic and Political Outlook

• The overall economic situation is viewed as slightly positive to stable.
• Political stability is expected to deteriorate, largely due to Brexit negotiations and secession movements.
• Process uncertainty remains a challenge, though less pronounced than in 2017 (39% vs. 62%).

3. Top Industries for PE M&A

• Pharma & Healthcare, Business Services & Logistics, and Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) are the top three sectors expected to see the most PE-driven M&A in 2018.
• Financial Services and Consumer Goods & Retail are also seen as promising, but not as much as the top three.
• Automotive remains a less preferred sector for PE investment, despite increased Chinese activity.

4. Investment Focus and Strategy

• Divesting existing investments is the top focus for PE professionals in 2018, up from making new investments which was the top focus in 2017 and 2016.
• Active portfolio management is expected to become more important in the PE business model.
• Minority investments and club deals with other funds are gaining traction, while co-operations with hedge funds or strategic investors are viewed neutrally or not expected.

5. Valuation Multiples and Exit Channels

• 93% of PE professionals consider current valuation multiples to be slightly overvalued to overvalued.
• 30% expect valuation multiples to increase further in 2018.
• Sale to strategic investors and sale to PE investors are the most favorable exit channels, with IPO following.
• PE professionals expect no change in the competitive environment for fundraising in 2018 compared to 2017.

6. Sources of Targets

• Majority shareholdings in family-owned companies and secondary buyouts are the most important sources of attractive targets.
• Minority investments are newly included and considered important by 20% of respondents.
• Listed companies (taking private) and insolvent companies/distressed deals are less attractive than in 2017.

7. Chinese Investors' Role

• Chinese competition for deals is expected to remain stable to slightly increasing.
• Pharma & Healthcare, Capital Goods & Engineering, and Automotive are the most attractive industries for Chinese investors.
• Access to the home market and favorable financing conditions are the main competitive advantages for Chinese investors.

8. External Financing and Value Creation

• Growth financing and leveraged buyouts are expected to be more easily available in 2018.
• Add-on acquisitions and digitalization/Industry 4.0 are the most important value creation measures.
• External consultants are most involved during the acquisition and pre-exit phases of PE portfolio companies.

Key Information

• The PE market is expected to grow in most European regions in 2018, with the UK being an exception.
• Process uncertainty remains a challenge but is less intense than in 2017.
• Valuation multiples are perceived as overvalued, but some professionals expect them to rise further.
• Divestments are the primary focus for PE professionals in 2018, indicating a shift in strategy.
• Chinese investors are playing an increasingly active role in European PE transactions, especially in Capital Goods & Engineering and Automotive.
• Active portfolio management and minority investments are gaining importance in the PE business model.

Conclusion

The European private equity market in 2018 is anticipated to grow, particularly in the mid/small-cap segment, with a focus on divestments and active portfolio management. While the economic outlook is generally positive, political uncertainty and overvaluation of assets are key challenges. Chinese investors are expected to maintain a competitive edge, especially in specific industries, and their influence is likely to increase. The overall competitive environment for fundraising is expected to remain stable, and exit channels like sale to strategic investors and sale to PE are seen as the most promising.