2019全球私募股权报告（英文版）

报告摘要

Global Private Equity Report 2019 Summary

Core Content

The Global Private Equity Report 2019 provides an in-depth analysis of the state of the private equity (PE) industry in 2018 and outlines strategic trends that are shaping the sector for the future. It emphasizes both the resilience and the challenges of the PE industry, highlighting the evolving landscape of investment strategies, market dynamics, and the impact of macroeconomic factors.

Key Highlights from 2018

1. Investment Trends

The PE industry saw a 10% increase in total buyout value in 2018, reaching $582 billion, marking the strongest five-year period in history.
Deal count dropped by 13%, to 2,936 worldwide, due to high multiples and intense competition.
Public-to-private (P2P) deals surged, reaching record levels in both value and number, especially in the US.
- The largest P2P deal was the $17 billion carve-out of Thomson Reuters' Financial & Risk unit, led by Blackstone and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.
- KKR’s $9.6 billion LBO of Envision Healthcare also contributed to this trend.
Sponsor-to-sponsor deals remained a significant source of value, particularly in Europe.
- Examples include Partners Group’s $5.4 billion acquisition of Techem and EQT’s $2.3 billion purchase of Azelis.

2. Market Dynamics

High deal multiples and limited attractive targets continued to be the primary challenges for GPs.
Dry powder reached a record high of $2 trillion in December 2018, indicating a high level of capital readiness.
Debt markets remained supportive, with covenant-lite loans becoming more common.
- In the US, 40% of LBOs had multiples above 7x EBITDA, compared to 6x EBITDA pre-2008 crisis.
- The average LBO multiple in the US and Europe was 11x EBITDA, reflecting increased competition and higher asset prices.

3. Strategic Adjustments

GPs are anticipating downturns and planning for them, while still pursuing growth.
Downside scenario analysis and proactive risk management are now central to deal evaluation.
Advanced analytics and merger integration are becoming more important to enhance value creation and compete with corporate buyers.
Digital disruption and supply chain consolidation are now key concerns for firms during due diligence.

4. Performance and Returns

Despite a decline in returns, PE still outperformed public markets.
Median return multiples for Chinese Internet and tech companies dropped to less than 2.0x EBITDA in 2016-18, from 4.7x EBITDA in 2014-15, signaling a potential overvaluation.
Exit opportunities are becoming scarcer, with only 130 divestitures of Chinese tech firms compared to over 1,000 acquisitions.

Spotlight on China: Navigating the New Economy

China's new economy has grown rapidly, driven by technology and Internet sectors.
Venture capital in Chinese start-ups reached $881 billion in 2018, 32% of global venture capital, up from 4% in 2013.
Greater China now produces more unicorns (start-ups valued at $1 billion or more) than the US.
The average deal size in China rose to $213 million in 2018, up from $30 million in 2013.
Chinese tech firms are expanding into diverse sectors such as financial services, gaming, education, and AI.
Traditional PE valuation methods are not applicable to the new economy, making it challenging for investors to assess these companies.
Inflated expectations and overvaluation are raising concerns about a potential market correction.

Strategic Trends for 2019 and Beyond

1. Buy-and-Build Strategy

Buy-and-build is becoming more popular, allowing firms to scale through acquisitions.
However, it is difficult to execute successfully due to high competition and complex integration challenges.

2. Merger Integration

Firms are investing in merger integration capabilities to compete with corporate buyers.
Integration should begin during due diligence, to ensure smooth post-close execution.

3. Adjacency Strategy 2.0

PE firms are diversifying into adjacent sectors to increase returns and reduce risk.
This strategy allows firms to leverage existing expertise and create synergies across different industries.

4. Advanced Analytics

Advanced analytics are being used to improve decision-making and value creation.
They provide faster and more accurate insights during due diligence and post-acquisition.

Key Takeaways

The PE industry is experiencing a historic five-year growth but faces challenges such as high multiples, limited targets, and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Strategic buyers are increasingly active, pushing up auction prices and forcing PE firms to refine their approaches.
China's new economy is attracting massive investment, but valuation risks and exit challenges are growing.
The future of private equity is likely to see larger opportunities and greater capital flows into private markets, driven by fundamental shifts in capital markets.
Firms must adapt by building new capabilities, such as advanced analytics and merger integration, and managing risks proactively.