2019全球私募股权报告_86页_4mb

Global Private Equity Report 2019 Summary

Core Content

The Global Private Equity Report 2019 provides an in-depth analysis of the state of the private equity (PE) industry in 2018 and outlines key strategies shaping its future. It highlights the industry's continued growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties, challenges in deal-making, and the evolving role of PE in a changing market landscape.

Key Trends in 2018

Investment Activity

• The PE industry saw a 10% increase in total buyout value to $582 billion, marking the strongest five-year stretch in history.
• Deal count dropped by 13% to 2,936 transactions globally, driven by high deal multiples and intense competition.
• Public-to-private (P2P) deals reached their highest level since the 2006–07 boom, with large transactions like the $17 billion carve-out of Thomson Reuters' Financial & Risk unit and KKR’s $9.6 billion LBO of Envision Healthcare contributing to the surge.
• Sponsor-to-sponsor deals were also prominent, especially in Europe, with notable transactions such as Partners Group’s $5.4 billion acquisition of Techem and EQT’s $2.3 billion purchase of Azelis.

Challenges in Deal-Making

• High deal multiples and limited attractive targets remain the biggest obstacles.
• Macro uncertainty, including economic slowdown in China, global trade tensions, Brexit, and rising US interest rates, affects decision-making.
• PE firms are increasingly focused on downside scenarios, using advanced analytics and preemptive bidding to improve deal outcomes.

Dry Powder and Capital Availability

• Global PE dry powder reached a record high of $2 trillion in December 2018, indicating a large pool of available capital.
• The average investment duration was 3.0 years, significantly lower than the 4.6 years in 2007–08, suggesting that GPs have time to deploy unspent capital before a downturn.

Debt Market Dynamics

• Covenant-lite loans became more common, with 40% of US LBOs using multiples of greater than 7 times EBITDA.
• Banks allowed borrowers to calculate multiples based on projected earnings, which can lead to overvaluation and increased risk.
• Leveraged loan outflows were reported near year-end, signaling a potential cooling in the debt market.

Performance and Returns

• Despite a decline in returns, PE still outperformed public markets.
• Median return multiples for Chinese Internet and tech companies dropped to less than 2.0 times EBITDA in 2016–18, from 4.7 times in 2014–15, indicating overvaluation and market saturation.
• IPO performance for Chinese tech firms was mixed, with 62% of companies losing more than 30% of their value within 12 months post-IPO, compared to 7% in 2015–2016.

Strategies for the Future

Buy-and-Build Strategy

• Gaining popularity due to its potential for scale and synergy capture.
• Requires strategic planning, strong execution, and careful selection of targets.

Merger Integration

• GPs are building merger integration capabilities to compete with corporate buyers.
• Integration should begin during due diligence to ensure smooth post-acquisition performance.

Adjacency Strategy 2.0

• PE firms are diversifying into new equity products to find higher returns.
• This strategy involves leveraging existing expertise to enter adjacent sectors or markets.

Advanced Analytics

• Used to speed up decision-making and identify value creation opportunities.
• Provides deeper insights during diligence and post-close to improve investment outcomes.

China: A Spotlight on the New Economy

• China's new economy (Internet, technology, and innovation sectors) has seen rapid expansion, with $881 billion in venture capital invested in Chinese start-ups in 2018, up from 4% in 2013 to 32%.
• Greater China now produces more unicorns (start-ups valued at $1 billion or more) than the US, at a faster rate.
• Chinese consumers are highly tech-savvy and willing to adopt new services quickly, with mobile payments reaching $9 trillion in 2016 (vs. $112 billion in the US).
• Chinese tech firms are aggressive in diversification, acquiring companies in financial services, gaming, education, healthcare, and AI.
• However, valuation challenges persist, with median multiples for Chinese Internet and tech deals at 31 times EBITDA, twice as high as other industries in Greater China.
• Exit opportunities are limited, as PE firms have acquired over 1,000 tech companies but divested only 130 in the same period.

Key Takeaways

• The PE industry has seen record investment and capital inflows, but deal count has stagnated due to high multiples and competition.
• Returns have declined, but PE still outperforms public markets.
• Strategic buyers are increasingly active, pushing up auction prices.
• China's new economy is a key growth area, but valuation risks and exit challenges are significant.
• Advanced analytics and merger integration are becoming essential tools for PE firms to navigate uncertainty and create value.
• The industry is adapting to macroeconomic headwinds, including recession risks, digital disruption, and regulatory changes.

Conclusion

The Global Private Equity Report 2019 suggests that while the PE industry is thriving in 2018, it is also preparing for the next cycle. The report emphasizes the need for strategic adaptation, risk mitigation, and innovation in investment approaches. As the market evolves, PE firms must balance high valuations with disciplined execution to sustain long-term success.