20240220-宏源期货-镍与不锈钢周报_镍震荡_不锈钢趋势难成_39页_1mb

报告摘要

Current Strategy: Sell short on high prices.
Price Range: 120000-135000.
Key Logic: Supply factors include stable nickel ore prices, increased port arrivals in the Philippines due to seasonal changes with reduced inventory, but domestic and Indonesian ferroal production cuts amplify nickel iron stocks. Demand factors involve declining three-material battery production and stainless steel output, while alloy and electroplating demand remains steady. Inventory factors show rising social pure nickel stock, providing some support. Cost factors highlight increasing expenses for electrolytic nickel from raw materials, with integrated production maintaining modest profits. Overall, fundamentals indicate persistent excess supply and inventory accumulation, leading to a range-bound outlook with upper and lower pressures evident.
Risk: U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate changes, unexpected demand improvement, or electrolytic nickel production curtailments.

Current Strategy: Wait and observe for direction.
Price Range: 13300-14300.
Key Logic: Supply and demand factors involve reduced stainless steel plant output and weak end-market consumption. Cost elements are stable with nickel ferro and high-carbon chromium iron prices holding steady, offering a floor. Inventory levels are increasing, contributing to support, but demand recovery is uncertain. The market is expected to remain range-bound in the short term due to unresolved demand issues.
Risk: Excessive downstream demand growth or widespread smelting plant shutdowns.

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