2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Senegal_First_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_Staff_Report_Staff_Supplement_Press_Release_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_Senegal_80页_1mb

Summary of Senegal's First Review Under the Policy Support Instrument

Core Content

This document outlines the findings and recommendations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding Senegal's economic performance and policy implementation under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) during the first review. It includes the Staff Report, a Supplement on Debt Sustainability Analysis, a Press Release, and a Statement by the Executive Director.

Main Views

• Economic Recovery: Senegal's economic recovery is continuing, with real GDP growth projected at 4.5% for 2011. However, the recovery has been affected by the global financial crisis and higher international food and fuel prices.
• Fiscal Performance: The fiscal deficit for 2011 was slightly above the target (5.2% of GDP), primarily due to lower-than-expected oil-related revenues. Despite this, the program's structural benchmarks were largely met.
• Debt Sustainability: The authorities and IMF agreed that while a slightly higher fiscal deficit is acceptable in the short term due to the energy crisis, long-term fiscal consolidation is necessary to maintain debt sustainability.
• Energy Sector Reforms: The energy sector remains a key constraint on growth, and the government has implemented a restructuring plan (TAKKAL) to address these issues. The total estimated cost of the reform for 2011–2015 is over $1.5 billion.
• Tax Reforms and PFM: Tax policy reforms and improvements in public financial management (PFM) are ongoing, with the aim of increasing revenue and efficiency.
• Policy Challenges: The main risks include persistent electricity supply problems, rising food and fuel prices, pre-election policy shifts, and insufficient medium-term fiscal consolidation.

Key Information

Economic Indicators

• GDP Growth: Projected to reach 4.5% in 2011.
• Inflation: Expected to rise to 3.8% in 2011 due to higher food and fuel prices.
• Fiscal Deficit: Missed the target by 0.2% of GDP due to lower-than-expected oil-related revenues.
• Current Account Deficit: Revised from 8.2% to 5.9% of GDP in 2010, reflecting strong exports and lower imports.

Structural Reforms

• Energy Sector Reforms: A restructuring and revitalization plan was implemented, including short-term emergency measures and medium-term investments.
• Tax Policy Reforms: The government is working on a tax reform strategy, with plans to finalize the General Tax Code by October 2012.
• Public Financial Management (PFM): Efforts are being made to improve transparency and efficiency, including the establishment of a new entity for managing public debt and the implementation of a single treasury account.

Debt Management

• PSI Program: The second three-year PSI was approved in December 2010. The program includes a ceiling for nonconcessional external financing of $500 million over three years, tied to the highway extension.
• FSE Fund: An Energy Sector Support Fund (FSE) was established in February 2011 to finance the restructuring plan. It is partially funded by new taxes and levies.
• Debt Sustainability: The fiscal deficit should decline to below 4% of GDP in the medium term to ensure sustainability.

Risks

• Persistent electricity supply problems
• Rising international food and fuel prices
• Pre-election policy shifts
• Lack of medium-term fiscal consolidation

Additional Notes

• The government has frozen retail prices for six key food items and limited price increases for petroleum products.
• Tax reductions or subsidies are not recommended due to inefficiency, with better-targeted schemes like school lunch programs being more effective.
• The energy sector reform is expected to be highly profitable, and the government is exploring alternative financing options, including public-private partnerships (PPPs).

Policy Discussions

A. Safeguarding Fiscal Space

• The authorities and IMF agree that maintaining fiscal transparency is critical for the financial program.
• The FSE will be integrated into the fiscal accounts, with a special account for nonconcessional financing.
• Monthly reporting on the FSE's activities is required to ensure accountability.

B. Consolidating Tax Reforms, PFM, and Debt Management

• Tax reforms and customs administration improvements are ongoing.
• The government aims to establish a single treasury account and enhance anti-tax evasion measures.
• A new entity will be created to manage public debt and market interventions.

Program Monitoring

• The FSE will be audited annually, and an initial audit of the highway extension funds will be conducted three months after the start of the project.
• The government has implemented all six structural benchmarks for the first PSI review, with minor delays.

Staff Appraisal

• The economic recovery is continuing and has not been significantly affected by the political crisis in Côte d'Ivoire.
• The authorities have taken appropriate measures to address the energy crisis, including the establishment of the FSE and the implementation of the TAKKAL reform plan.
• The program's performance has been broadly satisfactory, but continued weaknesses in PFM and potential delays in structural reforms remain.

Conclusion

The IMF recommends that the fiscal deficit should decline in the medium term to ensure debt sustainability, while maintaining the necessary fiscal space to support energy sector reforms and other priority investments. Continued efforts in tax reform, PFM, and debt management are essential for long-term economic stability and growth.