20171108-大华银行-Markets_Overview_4页_249kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary (08 November 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of global economic and financial market developments as of 08 November 2017, with a focus on key events, economic data, and market movements across various regions.

Main Highlights

Markets Overview

Markets are closely monitoring developments in U.S. tax reform and President Trump's Asia trip.
There is speculation that Senate Republicans may delay the corporate tax cut, potentially conflicting with President Trump's desire for immediate implementation.
The Senate Finance Committee is expected to release a tax bill by Thursday.
U.S. equities were mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 finishing slightly lower, while Asian equities mostly rose, including the Nikkei 225, HSI, and SHCOMP Index.
FX markets saw the USD strengthen against G-10 currencies, with the dollar index DXY rising to 94.91. The AUD, NZD, and CAD each fell by about 0.6% against the dollar.
The GBP/USD pair showed resilience, bouncing from intraday lows to finish little changed.
The USD/JPY remained capped at ¥114.

Central Bank Outlook

The RBNZ is expected to keep the OCR at 1.75%.
The BOT is likely to maintain its interest rate at 1.50% today, with a potential rate hike in the second half of 2018.
Bank of Canada's Governor Poloz emphasized caution in future rate changes due to inflation risks.
ECB officials discussed the exit from QE, with Draghi stating that negative rates haven't undermined bank profitability.

Economic News & Data

China's Oct trade numbers are expected to show a trade surplus of US$39.1bn, with export growth at 7.1% y/y and import growth at 17.0% y/y.
China's foreign reserves increased to US$3.109 tn in Oct, though below market forecasts.
Taiwan's CPI fell by 0.32% y/y, the first negative reading since March, while exports grew by 3.0% y/y, below expectations.
Philippines' inflation rose to 3.5% y/y, with upside risks due to higher oil prices.
Indonesia's foreign reserves declined by $2.8bn in Oct, mainly due to government debt payments and FX interventions.

Key Information

FX Summary

KRW gained 0.3% to 1,111.90/USD, driven by positive macroeconomic data, improved China relations, and rate hike expectations.
CNY ended 0.1% weaker at 6.6420/USD, with the PBoC expected to set the midpoint weaker by 67 pips at 6.6283/USD.
USD/SGD is expected to trade within a range of 1.3580 - 1.3647, based on the SGD NEER trading 1.0% to 1.5% above the midpoint.

Commodities

WTI crude saw a 0.3% drop to $57.20, after a 3% rally the prior day.
Spot gold fell to $1275.30, down 0.5%, due to the rising dollar.
OPEC warned that U.S. shale production will grow faster than expected over the next four years.

Bond Yields

Treasury yields (except the 30Y) remained close to Monday's levels.
The 30Y benchmark slipped 2bp to 2.777%, the lowest since September 2017.
The 10Y yield fell for a fifth consecutive day to 2.314%.

Market Holidays/Events

Thanksgiving in the U.S. and Japan on 23 November.
Bonifacio Day in the Philippines on 30 November.
Birthday of Prophet Muhammad in Malaysia on 1 December.
Maulid Nabi Muham in Indonesia on 1 December.
King's Birthday in Thailand on 5 December.
Constitution Day in Thailand on 11 December.
Election Day in South Korea on 20 December.
Christmas Day in Singapore and Malaysia on 25 December.

Summary of Key Market Movements

USD gained against all G-10 currencies.
GBP showed resilience against the dollar.
KRW was the top-performing currency.
CNY ended weaker, with expectations of further depreciation.
SGD is expected to trade within a 1.3580 - 1.3647 range.
Equities in the U.S. were mixed, while Asian equities mostly rose.
Commodities saw a mixed performance, with oil and gold falling.
Central banks are expected to remain cautious, with the BOT and RBNZ likely to keep rates unchanged in the near term.

Summary of Key Economic Data

China's foreign reserves increased for the ninth consecutive month.
Taiwan's CPI fell to -0.32% y/y, with exports also below expectations.
Philippines' inflation rose to 3.5% y/y, raising concerns about monetary tightening.
Indonesia's foreign reserves declined due to government debt payments and FX interventions.

Conclusion

The report highlights the ongoing uncertainty around U.S. tax reform and Trump's Asia trip, which are key factors influencing global markets. FX markets showed mixed performance, with the USD strengthening and KRW leading gains. Central banks are expected to maintain caution, with interest rates likely to remain stable in the short term. Economic data from China, Taiwan, and Indonesia indicates mixed trends, with foreign reserves showing increases in some cases and declines in others. Commodities and bond yields also showed mixed results, with oil and gold falling and Treasury yields decreasing.